Pitching Splits Indicate Over For Tonight's Total

Rangers vs. Cardinals, 7:45 ET

It was a wash of a day yesterday as the only play that I provided ended up being canceled with the starters being scratched. Usually one team foils my play with a scratch, but it is rather rare to have both of the starters scratched. That's fine, it is better than a loss. I've actually won my last five MLB plays if you took under 4.5 through five innings on the Cubs/Royals, and played both run line plays for Giants vs. Rockies. Now we look to keep this going as the Rangers take on the Cardinals in St. Louis tonight.

The Rangers are one of the teams that are somewhat on the bubble. If the way they played their last three games is any indication, that bubble is about to burst. After taking games from the White Sox, they dropped all three games to the Blue Jays, allowing at least six runs in all three games. This brings the Rangers to a 51-55 record for the season, and they are 10 games under .500 on the road now. This is the first time that the Rangers will take on the Cardinals this season. Texas has only a few days to decide if they are going to keep the roster intact and try to make a move to defend their crown, or if they are going to start trading off assets and looking toward next year. One name that has floated around the trade rumors is today's starter, Nathan Eovaldi. While I think he will remain with the Rangers, I also think he could bring back a nice haul if they do choose to trade him. Eovaldi has put together a nice season with a 7-4 record, a 3.31 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP. His ERA and his WHIP are both top-25 numbers for the season. Outside of June, he has had an ERA at 3.00 or lower in each month of this year. Looking at his splits he has a 4.58 road ERA and a 2.67 home ERA, so this could be a sign of bad results to come in tonight's outing. There are three Cardinals with solid experience against Eovaldi, and another with seven at-bats. Combined those four are the only with experience and they are 16-for-48 against him. 

Nathan Eovaldi has pitched well for the Rangers, but he's not the best pitcher in this game. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

The Cardinals are above .500 and have lived above the mark for a while now. This is a significant change from the past few months that saw them struggle to find any semblance of consistency. The team was below .500 for over a year before finally turning it around. As a team, the Cardinals are hitting .245 which is good for 13th in the league. However, they ended last season batting .250 and 15th in the league, so there hasn't been much of a change. During the offseason, the team addressed the pitching staff issues from last season. While none of the names they added were big splashes, they have worked out to this point. Andre Pallante, tonight's starter has done a bit of everything for the team. He was a reliever for the entirety of last season, but this year has appeared in 18 games, half of them starts. He has been very good this month with two quality starts where he allowed one run in each game. Then the third game, he went 6.1 innings and allowed four earned runs. For the season he has been worse at home than he has been on the road. He has a 4.50 home ERA with a 3.45 road ERA. He has only faced Rangers hitters six times in his career and allowed just one hit.

I do wonder a bit if Eovaldi is bothered at all by the trade rumors. Though they haven't been as loud as some other names, he still has to know they exist. Normally he is a guy I like to back because I think he is good, but he has been terrible on the road this season. Pallante has pitched fairly well lately, but I'm not convinced that the Cardinals are going to win. Instead, I think we should take the over 8.5 for the game. The Rangers pitching has struggled lately, and both Pallante and Eovaldi are in the worst spots for their splits. Back the over.

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