Pitching Showcase Expected in Padres vs. Brewers

Brewers vs. Padres, 4:05 ET

It wasn't a terrible day, but it wasn't a good day either. All of the plays looked promising, but once again, I couldn't avoid big innings from some teams. I had an easy victory in the Guardians vs. Nationals game, that one coasted to the under and really wasn't in much jeopardy at any point. I'm hoping we can find a few more of those on today's slate.

The Brewers are going to go only as far as their pitching staff can take them. If you read my season preview, you know that I don't believe in the Brewers at all and think that the Milwaukee hitters are maybe the third-best lineup in the division. I would take the Cubs hitters over the Brewers, and I'd take the Cardinals over both. But, they are currently 10-4 on the season and that is mostly due to a superb pitching staff. If they have the third-best lineup, they have the first pitching staff in the division and it really isn't close. One of their stud pitchers goes today in Freddy Peralta. I'll tell you this, too, I was not a big Peralta guy over the past few years and I faded him and followed at the right time. Hopefully, that insight on him remains correct today. He is off to a beautiful start to the season with 12 innings under his belt and just one earned run allowed. He already has racked up 14 strikeouts on the year, but he also has allowed six free passes. If he wants to keep up this start, he needs to watch the walks.

The Padres are the team that I think will win the NL West this year. So far, they look like the Padres team that didn't spend millions of dollars over the past few years to try and put a respectable product on the field. They sit under .500 at the start of the season. I mentioned this in an article about the Astros, but if this happened in the middle of the season, it wouldn't really be noticed, but so early in the year, it gives people a chance to question if the Padres are for real or are just pretenders. Xander Bogaerts is killing it for them, but everyone else kind of sucks so far. Well, not everyone. Seth Lugo, today's starter is off to a very good start. Lugo is a guy I wrote about last week and I was dead wrong. He's kind of a journeyman that mostly worked out of the bullpen. His two starts though make you question if past managers have been wrong about where he should be. He's gone 13 innings so far and has allowed just two earned runs. I don't think he can keep this up, but against a bad-hitting Brewers team, I'd expect him to at least have a chance at keeping this start rolling.

If I had to pick a side in this game, I'd take the Brewers because it is a coinflip game and I'd get plus money on it. But, I don't have to pick a side, so I won't. Instead, I'm taking the under 8 for the game. I have confidence in both starters being able to keep the score low for most of this game, and both bullpens are trustable enough.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024