Pitchers Should Have Edge In Phillies Vs Rays

Phillies vs. Rays, 7:05 ET

Before the season started, you might have been able to convince me that tonight's matchup might be a World Series preview. I would've said it was unlikely, but still at least possible that both of these teams could make some noise and find their way into postseason glory. Now, you probably could convince me that neither team will make the playoffs. I'd probably tell you it is unlikely but still possible. There is still plenty of season to go, but the Phillies and Rays square off and both need to make some moves to stabilize their season.

The Phillies are in a better spot currently than their opponent. Philadelphia comes into the season with a solid 19-15 record, but they are looking up at the Mets who have been playing outstanding baseball. At some point, the Phillies will need to try and make a run or become resigned to the fact that they will only have the Wild Card as a path to the playoffs. What's going wrong for Philadelphia? Their offense is fine with a team batting average of .255 and 159 runs. The pitching staff is doing pretty well overall with a 3.96 ERA, but the WHIP at 1.30 is a little high. It could just be a matter of when the team struggles with hitting so does the pitching, and vice versa. They have plenty of talent, and should have no problem racking up wins as the season progresses. Zack Wheeler takes the mound for the Phillies in hopes of getting them off to a good start for the series. Wheeler has been good, but not quite great yet with a 2-1 record, 3.48 ERA, and a 1.00 WHIP. He may be finding his groove as he has thrown three straight quality starts, allowing two earned runs in each. The biggest concern is that he has allowed one home run in each game (making it seven for the season in seven starts, compared to 20 in 32 starts last year). Wheeler has been hit fairly well by the Rays as they have a .279 average against him in 43 at-bats, and half of their hits have been for extra bases.

Philadelphia Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler pitches vs. the Braves at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. (Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

The Rays are in one of the best divisions in baseball with five teams that could have a chance to make the playoffs. As we saw last year, the five teams all kind of beat the hell out of each other and only two made the postseason (Yankees and Orioles). Wins gains non-AL East opponents are really important for this team because they need to get as many wins from outside of the division as possible. The Rays are just 16-18 for the year but they seem like they might be better than their record shows. The team is hitting .245 with 131 runs scored, and the team ERA is at 3.56 while the WHIP is even more impressive at 1.18. One of the big contributor to those pitching numbers is today's starter, Drew Rasmussen. Rasmussen is 1-2 with a 2.64 ERA and a very strong 0.98 WHIP. They seem a little cautious with him as they have only let him go five innings in almost every start. His pitch count should indicate at least one more inning of work is possible, but the Rays trust their bullpen I guess. He is coming off of his two worst starts of the year, he allowed three earned runs in one and four in the other, but went five innings in both games. Phillies hitters are 8-for-27 against Rasmussen, but only one of those hits was for extra bases. 

This is a game that I think the Rays are live dogs in. I get that Wheeler is looking locked in and could potentially be reverting back to the stud that he was last season when he came in second for the Cy Young Award. I'm not standing in the way of that. Instead, I think we should play the under for the game as both teams pitching should be capable of holding the other side to a reasonable number of runs. I'm thinking it will be a 4-2 final or something similar. It just is uncertain which team will have the four and which will have the two. 

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