Picking Value For An American League World Series Winner

AL World Series

I've talked a bit about the MLB World Series from the National League perspective. The Dodgers are once again likely to be the best team in the league but they will eventually have to beat someone in the World Series from the other side of the league. I am going to write about which teams I think have a legitimate chance to dethrone the Dodgers or whoever comes out of the National League.

The Yankees are the favorites in the American League to win the World Series at +800. I can't say that I disagree because they have a good lineup, and their pitching staff is pretty strong as well. The issue will likely be age and injuries, but we should have a good chance to have them in the World Series again even without Juan Soto on the roster this year. The other bonus for the Yankees is they will always add to the team if they think they have a chance. Of all the teams out there, this is the most likely to not worry about money. They upgraded Anthony Rizzo with Paul Goldschmidt, who had a down year last year, but still should be one of the better players. They tried to negate a bit of the Soto loss with Cody Bellinger. We shall see what happens, but they have Jasson Dominguez also likely to be on the roster opening day with Stanton starting on the injured list.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 30:  Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees drops a routine fly ball hit by Tommy Edman #25 of the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fifth inning of Game Five of the 2024 World Series at Yankee Stadium on October 30, 2024 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

There really doesn't seem to be much faith in the American League overall, as the next favorite is the Houston Astros. The Astros roster isn't one that you are probably as familiar with considering they've had quite a bit of turnover from their World Series runs. Obviously some players were already gone, but they traded away Kyle Tucker, Justin Verlander is gone, and so is Alex Bregman. Don't bet on them to win the title. I actually think they are a better bet to miss the playoffs than they are to win the World Series.

The Orioles and Red Sox are next in the list for potential AL World Series winners. I like the value on both. The reality is that both teams have very obvious flaws. The Orioles haven't performed well in the postseason, which isn't exactly something you can blame them for considering it has been just two years. Their starting rotation took a big hit with losing Corbin Burnes after taking a shot with him last year. Their roster is still young, deep, and should position them for a playoff spot. The pitching staff just doesn't have a true ace. The Red Sox also don't really have a great staff, but the upside is there. Garrett Crochet has to do it on a team that doesn't lose 100+ games. Walker Buehler is great but needs to stay healthy. They have a deep bullpen and can lean on that. Rafael Devers and Alex Bregman should be a great combination for their offense. I actually think there is good value at +2200.

The Rangers, Twins, Mariners, and Royals are the next group that you can consider. The Rangers won two years ago and had a bit of a down year last year with some injury issues. I think you get a decent value on them at +2500 with Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi leading the rotation. Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, and Corey Seager make for a tough lineup as well. The Twins won't win the World Series, don't bet on them. The Mariners offense didn't really improve in the offseason. They had the best pitching staff in baseball and the worst offense. Don't expect much to change. The Royals are still probably going to be competitive, but I don't think they have the pitching to get the job done. I don't expect Seth Lugo to have the same success as last year.

The one team I do like that I'm crazy for liking is the Toronto Blue Jays. They've been linked to trades constantly and seem like they are teetering on either being a World Series champion or falling off a cliff and blowing up the team. I still think their odds should be better than +6000. They have some strong pitchers with Kevin Gausman and Max Scherzer. They have a lineup that could be very competitive. It is a tough division, but they just need to win one of three Wild Card spots to get a chance.

If I had to pick a team that will win the World Series, I'd say I think it will be a National League team. However, I do think there is too much value to pass up the Red Sox and Blue Jays, so I'll put something on both of them. The Rangers are a good choice as well and probably have an easier path. 

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