Phillies Will Bounce Back Against Diamondbacks In 2023 NLCS Game 4

The Arizona Diamondbacks (1-2) made the 2023 NLCS vs. the Philadelphia Phillies (2-1) a little more interesting. Arizona beat Philly in a 2-1 nail-biter with a walk-off RBI single in the bottom of the 9th on Thursday. First pitch for Game 4 of the 2023 NLCS is 8:07 p.m. ET Friday.

Both teams are reaching deep into their pitching staff Friday. The Phillies are giving LHP Cristopher Sanchez his 1st career playoff start. Philly hasn't needed Sanchez to start but after looking under the hood of his numbers, I'm sold on him.

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During the regular season, the 26-year-old lefty made 18 starts and pitched at least 5 innings in 14 games. Seven of those outings are "quality starts," which happens when a start pitches at least 6 innings while allowing 3 or fewer ERs.

Arizona D-Backs LHP Joe Mantiply reacts to giving up a run in the 6th inning vs. the Phillies during Game 2 of the 2023 NLCS at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. (Elsa/Getty Images)

Arizona is projected to use relief LHP Joe Mantiply as an "opener" in a "bullpen day". This will be Mantiply's 5th playoff appearance. Mantiply is 2-0 in his 1st four outings, all from the bullpen, but he gave up 3 ER in 0.1 IP in a 10-0 Game 2 loss to the Phillies.

Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Game 4

Betting odds for the Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks Game 4 of the 2023 NLCS.

Per MLB's Statcast, Sanchez has nasty stuff. He only has a 3-pitch arsenal featuring a sinker as his go-to pitch followed by a changeup then a slider. All three pitches have a ton of movement.

Sanchez's chase rate ranks in the 97th-percentile of MLB and his BB% is in the 98th-percentile. Yet what I like most about Sanchez is his ability to get groundballs. The Dominican grades out in the 95th-percentile of groundball-rate, per Statcast.

Arizona's lineup ranked 29th in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching during the regular season, according to FanGraphs. The D-Backs were 21st in wOBA, 25th in ISO, and 18th in hard-hit rate as well. Oh, they had the 4th-highest groundball-rate in MLB.

Philadelphia Phillies LHP Cristopher Sanchez in action against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park. (Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Conversely, the Phillies lead the MLB postseason in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, HRs, and stolen bases by a wide margin. For example, Bryce Harper has 11 BBs to 6 Ks with 4 HRs in these playoffs. Philly OF Nick Castellanos has a team-high 5 HRs.

Finally, sportsbooks hung a bad early number on this game. Per Pregame.com, Philadelphia opened as -115 favorites and quickly rose to -130 early Friday morning. The market understands the Phillies have a 3-phase edge in this matchup. For the record, I'd bet Philly's moneyline up to -145.

My prediction: Phillies 8, Diamondbacks 4

Bet 1.3 units (1 unit = $10) on the Phillies -130 to beat the Diamondbacks in Game 4 of the 2023 NLCS.