PGA TOUR Bets, 'One-And-Done' Pick: Valspar Championship 2025
This would be the perfect week to pass on betting on the PGA TOUR. Not only does the 2025 NCAA Tournament begin Thursday, but I've been running badly in golf. After last week's THE PLAYERS Championship, my PGA TOUR 2025 bankroll is -27.91 units (u). Three of my bets to win missed the cut and Sepp Straka was my only guy in contention on the weekend.
Nevertheless, I bet on the TOUR weekly and the Valspar Championship at the Innisbrook Resort's Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida, is one of my favorite events of the year because I hit Sam Burns (+2000) here in 2022. Plus, the 2025 Valspar is a sneaky good field featuring seven players in the top 20 of the Official World Golf Rankings.
My betting strategy for the 2025 Valspar is to risk 1.6 units (u) to profit 20u if any of my bets to win hit. As you can tell by losing record, I'm not a golf expert. Hence, I rely on work from smarter people for my event history and course preview research. A few things I looked at when handicapping the Valspar are included below, along with my outright bets and one-and-done pick.
Valspar Championship 2025 Betting Card
Best Bet 6-Pack
- Bet 0.44u on Will Zalatoris (+4500) via FanDuel.
- Bet 0.27u on Taylor Moore (+7500) via FanDuel.
- Bet 0.25u on Luke Clanton (+8000) via FanDuel.
- Bet 0.25u on Nicolai Højgaard (+8000) via BetMGM.
- Bet 0.22u on Jake Knapp (+9000) via FanDuel.
- Bet 0.17u on Max McGreevy (+12000) via FanDuel.
Will Zalatoris (+4500)
This is just a great number for one of the best golfers in this field. Zalatoris was tied for second at THE PLAYERS Championship last week with -11 (Rory McIlroy shot -12 and won in a playoff) heading into the 13th in Round 3 before shooting +9 on the final five holes, including a quadruple bogey on Hole No. 14.
While I like betting on golfers with good recent form, I want to avoid guys coming off heart-breaking results. However, since Zalatoris ejected in the third round, he's coming into the Valspar pissed and motivated. Plus, Zalatoris hasn't missed a cut this season, and he's gained strokes with his irons in five of six starts.
Finally, Innisbrook is the type of course that Willy Z should win at. He is a poor putter, so it's tough for him to win "birdie-fests". Yet, the average winning score at the Valspar since 2010 is -12, which is reachable for Zalatoris regardless of his putting performance.
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Taylor Moore (+7500)
Moore won the 2023 Valspar and finished a respectable T12 in his title defense last year. I mention this because Paul Casey in 2018-19 and Sam Burns in 2020-21 both won the Valspar in back-to-back years, so Moore winning for a second time in three years is doable.
Taylor Moore holding the trophy after winning the 2023 Valspar Championship at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida. (Photo credit: Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images)
He sucks with his irons, ranking 139th in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP) this year. But, Moore is 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT), has gained strokes putting in four straight starts entering THE 2025 PLAYERS and has gained strokes with his irons at Innisbrook in the past two seasons.
Also, Moore is ninth on TOUR in Par 5 scoring, which is my favorite stat in golf because it requires more clubs than Par 3s and 4s. Finally, Moore is in good form, making seven consecutive, including a T7 at The American Express and a T9 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
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Luke Clanton (+8000)
This is Clanton's longest odds for any start this season and I don't feel like he is less likely to win at Valspar than he was at the Sony Open (missed cut), Farmers Insurance Open (T15), Waste Management Phoenix Open (missed cut), and the Cognizant Classic (T18).
Everyone is excited about Clanton because he is a "flusher." In fact, over his last 32 rounds, Clanton is first in this field for SG: OTT, 26th in driving accuracy, 19th in SG: APP, and sixth in Par 5 scoring, according to Bet The Number. Considering his odds and ball-striking ability, I'm excited about Clanton for the first time this week.
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Nicolai Højgaard (+8000)
I bet Højgaard every week because he just turned 24 last week, and he's already won three times on the DP World Tour, including the 2023 DP World Tour Championship, and played on the 2023 European Ryder Cup team. At this point, if I miss out on the Dane's win, I'll be on tilt.
Nicolai leads the TOUR in "greens-in-regulation" this season, ranks ninth in Par 3 scoring (there are five Par-3s at Innisbrook), 25th in Par 5 scoring, and ninth in bogey avoidance. Most of the APP shots at Innisbrook are from 170+ yards and Højgaard is 14th in this field at that range over the last 32 rounds, per Bet The Number.
He missed the cut at THE PLAYERS last week, but so did a lot of great golfers, such as Hideki Matsuyama and Ludvig Åberg. Otherwise, Højgaard was T36 at Phoenix, eighth in the Mexico Open, and T18 at the Cognizant. If he can just hit fairways, Højgaard will win on the PGA TOUR this year.
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Jake Knapp (+9000)
Last year's win at the Mexico Open appeared fluky, but Knapp has been playing well this season. Knapp has gained strokes with his irons in six straight starts. He ranks 16th on TOUR in SG: Putting this year and 17th in Par 5 scoring. Despite missing the cut, something started to click in his final round at The American Express in January.
Since then, Knapp has made every cut and has four consecutive top-25 finishes: T17 at The Genesis Invitational ("signature event"), T25 in Mexico, T6 at the Cognizant, and T12 at THE 2025 PLAYERS. All four courses have unique layouts and agronomy (grass type) and Knapp has played well at each event.
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Max McGreevy (+12000)
This is just a value play at a huge number because McGreevy is outplaying his +12000 odds. He is eighth in driving accuracy and 23rd in SG: APP on TOUR this year. McGreevy has gained strokes in ball-striking in three straight starts: T4 at the Cognizant, T40 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational ("signature event"), and T20 at THE 2025 PLAYERS.
Max McGreevy celebrates as he sinks the birdie putt on No. 18 to win the Memorial Health Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour. (Photo credit: Bill Welt-USA TODAY NETWORK)
Furthermore, McGreevy has won three times in his last 20 starts. Granted, two were on the Korn Ferry Tour (the PGA TOUR's minor league) and the other was the Dunlop Phoenix Tournament on the Japan Golf Tour. That said, McGreevy beat Akshay Bhatia and Matsuyama at the Dunlop, so it was an impressive victory.
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Valspar Championship 2025 ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Michael Kim
Low-key, Kim is ninth in total SG on the PGA TOUR so far this season. He missed the cut at THE PLAYERS last week, but, again, TPC Sawgrass is a tough course, and I'm not holding that against Kim. Before THE PLAYERS, Kim was T2 in Phoenix, T13 at The Genesis, T13 in Mexico, T6 at the Cognizant, and fourth at the Arnold Palmer.
Previous Picks ($5,334,354 for 607th place)
- Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0) MC
- The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640) T29
- Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0) MC
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500) T13
- Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0) MC
- The Genesis Invitational: Collin Morikawa ($270,714) T17
- Mexico Open: Nicolai Højgaard ($218,800) 8th
- Cognizant Classic: Davis Thompson ($0) MC
- Arnold Palmer Invitational: Russell Henley ($4,000,000)🥇
- THE PLAYERS Championship: Sepp Straka ($418,750) T14
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.