PGA TOUR Best Bets, 'One-And-Done' Pick: Valero Texas Open 2025
San Antonio will be buzzing this weekend. Not only is the Final Four at the Alamodome on Saturday, but the PGA TOUR's 2025 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio is this week. This is the final tournament before The Masters 2025. The 2025 Valero Texas Open champion is the last chance to get invited to Augusta National next week.
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I have good and bad news about last week's Houston Open. The good: I bet Min Woo Lee, who won the tournament. The bad: I only bet Min Woo to finish inside the top 20 via X pre-tournament. More good news, Lee's win reduced my Houston Open loss to -0.48 units (u). But, additional bad news, my 2025 PGA TOUR bankroll is -30.36u.
My gambling strategy for TPC San Antonio is to risk 2.49u to profit 20u if any of my bets to win hit. I'll finalize my card with any head-to-head matchups or finishing position bets on X before the first group of the Valero Texas Open tees off Thursday, April 3. Let's dive into my outright bets and One-And-Done pick.
Valero Texas Open 2025 Betting Card
'Starting 5'
The odds are via Oddschecker.com at the time of writing.
- Bet 0.67u on Denny McCarthy (+3000) at BetMGM.
- Bet 0.67u on Daniel Berger (+3000) at BetMGM.
- Bet 0.5u on Tom Kim (+4000) at DraftKings.
- Bet 0.36u on Gary Woodland (+5500) at FanDuel.
- Bet 0.29u on Lee Hodges (+7000) at FanDuel.
Denny McCarthy (+3000)
D-Mac almost ran down Akshay Bhatia to win his first PGA TOUR event at TPC San Antonio last year. McCarthy made eight birdies on the back nine in the final round to send the 2024 Valero Texas Open to a playoff, which Bhatia eventually won. McCarthy's recipe for success last year was chipping and putting; he gained 8.0 strokes around-the-green (ATG) and 7.4 strokes with his putter.
Denny McCarthy putts on the 18th hole during the third round of the 2024 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio. (Photo Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, the Virginia graduate is playing well this season. D-Mac has finished inside the top-16 five times in eight starts this year, including a T15 at The Genesis Invitational ("signature event"), 18th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational ("signature event"), and a T14 at THE PLAYERS Championship. He's gained strokes with his irons and on the greens in five consecutive starts.
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Daniel Berger (+3000)
I know Berger will be a "community play" this week, and you want to avoid betting on public favorites in sports. But, I can't miss out on Berger at the Valero Texas Open like I did with Min Woo Lee at last week's Houston Open. After missing half of 2022 and all of 2023 with a back injury, Berger is close to breaking through for his fifth win on the PGA TOUR.
Here are his last five starts: T2 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, 12th at The Genesis, T25 at Cognizant Classic, T15 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T20 at THE PLAYERS. The Phoenix Open and PLAYERS are at other TPC courses in Scottsdale, Arizona, and Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, respectively.
Meanwhile, Berger has gained strokes on approach (APP), ATG, and putting in all five of those starts and off-the-tee (OTT) in four. TPC San Antonio rewards accuracy, and he is 10th in driving accuracy on TOUR this year. "Bogey Avoidance" is important here, and Berger is 15th this season in that stat.
One of Berger’s four PGA TOUR wins was in Texas, the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth. Again, I'm not in love with betting the same guy that most golf gambling Twitter (I know it's called "X" now) also bet. However, it feels like Berger's long road back from injury will culminate with a win at the 2025 Valero Texas Open.
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Tom Kim (+4000)
Kim is the South Korean version of Corey Conners, who won the 2019 and 2023 Valero Texas Opens. They are both precise ball strikers with terrible short games. Kim is seventh in Strokes Gained (SG): APP on TOUR this season and has been more accurate OTT than the field in six consecutive starts, according to DataGolf.com.
Tom won back-to-back Shriners Children's Opens in 2022-23 at TPC Summerlin, a crossover course to TPC San Antonio. He did miss the cut last year in his first Valero Texas Open, losing strokes with his irons and fairways OTT. Yet, Kim did gain strokes with the putter, and he should improve his ball striking with a year of experience under his belt.
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Gary Woodland (+5500)
The 2019 U.S. Open champion has always been a terrific ball striker and a poor putter, but he is gaining strokes on the greens this season. Last week, Woodland picked up 8.7 strokes putting in a T2 at the Houston Open. TPC San Antonio is one of the toughest places to gain strokes OTT on TOUR, and Woodland is 16th in "Total Driving" this year, which blends distance with accuracy.
Woodland finished T6 and T8 in his last two Valero Texas Opens in 2021-22, respectively. He was T9 at the 2024 Shriners and T21 in Phoenix this season, both at TPC courses. One of Woodland's four PGA TOUR wins was the 2018 Waste Management in Phoenix, so he plays well at similar venues. Even if his putter cools off, Woodland can ball-strike his way into contention this week.
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Lee Hodges (+6000)
Hodges scored the highest in my 20-round model for the Valero Texas Open, courtesy of Bet The Number. He is ninth in driving accuracy, sixth in Strokes Gained: APP, second in Par 5 scoring, and first in Bogey Avoidance over that span. Lee was T11 at the Houston Open last week and T9 at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in January, one of the toughest courses on TOUR.
Furthermore, Hodges has gained strokes with his irons in five straight starts and on the greens in five of his last six tournaments. Lee has missed the cut in two of his three Valero Texas Opens, with a T6 sandwiched in between, so he's contended at TPC San Antonio before. Lastly, as the 2023 3M Open Champion, Hodges has legit "win equity".
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Valero Texas Open 2025 ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Denny McCarthy
Previous Picks (729th with $5,390,197)
- Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0), MC
- The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640), T29
- Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0), MC
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500), T13
- Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0), MC
- The Genesis Invitational: Collin Morikawa ($270,714), T17
- Mexico Open: Nicolai Højgaard ($218,800), eighth
- Cognizant Classic: Davis Thompson ($0), MC
- Arnold Palmer Invitational: Russell Henley ($4,000,000),🥇
- THE PLAYERS Championship: Sepp Straka ($418,750), T14
- Valspar Championship: Michael Kim ($55,843), T28
- Texas Children's Houston Open: Si Woo Kim ($0), MC
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.