PGA TOUR Best Bets, 'One-And-Done' For 2025 Truist Championship
Formerly sponsored by Wells Fargo, this week's 2025 Truist Championship will be the first PGA TOUR event at the Philadelphia Cricket Club's Wissahickon Course, allegedly the nation's first country club. Designed by A.W. Tillinghast in the Roaring Twenties, the Philadelphia Cricket Club replaces regular Truist host, Quail Hollow Club, so it can host the 2025 PGA Championship next week.
Technically, World No. 2 Rory McIlroy is a four-time winner and the reigning champion of this event. But, that's misleading because this tournament is at the Wissahickon Course this year. Either way, Rory is the betting favorite for the 2025 Truist, returning to action for the first time since his triumphant win at the Masters last month.
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After hitting back-to-back winners with Rory at the Masters and Justin Thomas at the RBC Heritage, I cooled off last week as World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler dismantled THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, shooting a -31 en route to his first victory this season. Scottie's win cost me -3.05 units (u) and my 2025 PGA TOUR bankroll is now +1.16u.
Scheffler is skipping the Truist to prepare for next week's PGA Championship. Otherwise, this is a "signature event" on the PGA TOUR featuring every other golfer in the top 25 of the FedExCup Standings. Below, I'll go through my five outright bets to win the Truist and my One-And-Done pick.
Truist Championship 2025 Betting Card
Picks to win
The odds are via Oddschecker.com at the time of writing.
- Ludvig Åberg (+1800) via BetMGM, risking 1.39u.
- Jordan Spieth (+2800) via FanDuel, risking 0.71u.
- Hideki Matsuyama (+3500) via FanDuel, risking 0.57u.
- Keegan Bradley (+5000) via DraftKings, risking 0.4u.
- Michael Thorbjornsen (+14000) via Bet365, risking 0.14u.
Ludvig Åberg (+1800)
The playing field is leveled for Åberg because this is the first PGA TOUR event at the Philadelphia Cricket Club. This is only Ludvig’s second full season on TOUR and all the non-majors are played on the same courses, which puts him at a disadvantage. All things being equal, Åberg is probably the most talented player in the world.
He hammers the ball off the tee (OTT) and plays well on firm and fast greens. Over the last 30 rounds, Ludvig is fifth in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): OTT and 12th in driving distance, per Bet The Number. Augusta National has the fastest greens on TOUR, and Åberg was the runner-up at the 2024 Masters, seventh this year, and gained strokes on the greens both years.
Ludvig Åberg is my best bet to win the 2025 Truist Championship at the Wissahickon Course at the Philadelphia Cricket Club in Flourtown, Pennsylvania. (Photo credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images)
Even though it’s less than 7,200 yards, the Wissahickon Course will be a U.S. Open-like track, and Åberg’s game is perfect for the U.S. Open. A.W. Tillinghast, the architect of the Wissahickon Course, also designed Bethpage Black (host of the 2019 PGA Championship and 2025 Ryder Cup) and Winged Foot Golf Club (host of the 2020 U.S. Open). Brooks Koepka won the 2019 PGA and Bryson DeChambeau won the 2020 U.S. Open, and both are bombers.
Finally, Ludvig proved he could win a "big-boy" event by winning The Genesis Invitational in February against a loaded field, including Scheffler and McIlroy. The Genesis was relocated to Torrey Pines South, host of the 2021 U.S. Open. Essentially, if Åberg can beat the world’s best at Torrey Pines, he can win anywhere.
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Jordan Spieth (+2800)
There will be many ways to attack the Wissahickon Course because it isn't long, and Spieth is one of the most creative golfers in the world. If the greens are as tough at the Philadelphia Cricket Club as people expect, then Jordan could separate himself from the field by chipping and putting. He has done everything right this year but hasn't put it all together yet to get his first win since the 2022 RBC Heritage.
Spieth has gained strokes with his driver in eight of his 10 starts this season. He's gained strokes on the greens in four straight events and around the greens seven times this year. Jordan has had spike iron weeks at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Valspar Championship, and Byron Nelson. Spieth's next win is coming soon, and I want to profit from it.
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Hideki Matsuyama (+3500)
Hideki has struggled since winning the first event of the season, The Sentry. However, he started to find his elite form in the final round of the Masters 2025. Matsuyama tied Justin Rose for the low round Sunday at Augusta with a 66 (-6). If it weren’t for a third-round 79, ‘Deki played well at the Masters.
In fact, the average score for his other three rounds was 69. Matsuyama finished at -2 and Rory McIlroy beat Rose in a playoff with both carding an -11. Hence, if Hideki's third round at the Masters was on par with his other three, he would’ve shot a -12. I know I did some mental gymnastics to get there.
But, my point is, Matsuyama isn’t that far from playing his A-game, which is capable of winning any tournament. He was second behind Rory in SG: Approach at the Masters. The teeth of the Wissahickon Course are its tricky green complexes and penal bunkers. Hideki is a wizard around the greens and ranks second in sand save rate on TOUR this season.
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Keegan Bradley (+5000)
A fellow St. John’s 2008 graduate by way of Vermont, Bradley plays better in the northeast. He won the 2023 Travelers Championship ("signature event") in Connecticut and finished T7 in the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club in Massachusetts. Keegan has won a tournament in three straight years: 2022 ZOZO Championship, 2023 Travelers, and 2024 BMW Championship (the second round of the FedExCup Playoffs).
Also, he plays well on tough courses with strong fields. Bradley is sixth in this field for SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 24 rounds, according to Fantasy National. This includes five "signature events" (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, The Genesis, Arnold Palmer Invitational, THE PLAYERS Championship, and RBC Heritage), and the Masters.
Furthermore, Bradley is sneaky long OTT and his high ball flight will help him land softly into these firm greens on the Wissahickon Course. He’s gained strokes in distance with his driver in every start this season and ranks fourth on TOUR in "apex height."
Bradley is 141st in SG: Putting on TOUR this season, but everyone will have trouble putting on these greens, and he is doing everything else right. With that in mind, I’m willing to take a shot at Bradley at this price because he’s a proven winner in big-boy tournaments, including the 2011 PGA Championship.
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Truist Championship 2025 ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Ludvig Åberg
Previous Picks (14th with $13,343,342)
- Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0), MC
- The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640), T29
- Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0), MC
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500), T13
- Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0), MC
- The Genesis Invitational: Collin Morikawa ($270,714), T17
- Mexico Open: Nicolai Højgaard ($218,800), eighth
- Cognizant Classic: Davis Thompson ($0), MC
- Arnold Palmer Invitational: Russell Henley ($4,000,000), 🥇
- THE PLAYERS Championship: Sepp Straka ($418,750), T14
- Valspar Championship: Michael Kim ($55,843), T28
- Texas Children's Houston Open: Si Woo Kim ($0), MC
- The Masters: Rory McIlroy ($4,200,000), 🥇
- RBC Heritage: Justin Thomas ($3,600,000), 🥇
- THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: Jake Knapp (40,095), T39
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.