Something No One Asked For: 2024 Shriners Children's Open Best Bets

Alright, I promise this week's 2024 Shriners Children's Open will be the last or second-to-last PGA TOUR tournament I bet this season. This is one of the few FedExCup Fall events I'm excited about because I'm familiar with the course, TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, and World No. 25 golfer Tom Kim is going for a three-peat at the 2024 Shriners. 

It would be smart for me to suspend PGA TOUR gambling until 2025. After bricking the Sanderson Farms Championship earlier this month, I'm -51.29 units (u) this year, including most full-field TOUR events and the Paris men's Olympic golf tournament. That said, I've had enough close calls and second-place finishes that I can talk myself into hitting the links again. 

Shriners Children's Open 2024 Betting Card 

Picks To Win 

The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing, according to OddsChecker.com. 

Beau Hossler (+2800) 

The Southern California native plays well in the Pacific time zone and desert areas. Hossler has a T7 in two Shriners starts, including last year. The Texas Longhorn was second at the 2018 Houston Open and T4 at the 2022 Valero Texas Open. He has three more top-10 finishes in California: Third at Pebble Beach in 2022, T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open in January, and T9 at the 2017 Farmers. 

Two weeks ago, Hossler lost to Kevin Yu in a playoff at the Sanderson Farms Championship but bounced back with a T11 at the Black Desert last week. Over his past 24 rounds, Hossler’s driving accuracy has been 10.7% better than the PGA TOUR average, and he’s gained strokes off-the-tee (OTT) in six straight events with shot-link data, per Bet The Number. 

Beau Hossler takes his second shot from the fairway Hole No. 18 during the 2023 Shriners Children's Open at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. (Ray Acevedo-Imagn Images)

While irons are the weakest clubs in his bag, Hossler has picked up strokes on approach (APP) in three straight starts. More importantly, his game fits this course. At TPC Summerlin, the highest rate of second shots comes from 100-150 yards out. According to Bet The Number, Hossler is 18th in this field for APP shots within that range over the last 20 rounds. 

TPC Summerlin has Bentgrass greens, Hossler’s best putting surface and he’s generally a reliable putter. There are a lot of bunkers at TPC Summerlin and Hossler is 27th in Sand Save rate on TOUR this year. This includes the world’s best golfers, many of whom aren’t playing in the Shriners. Finally, this is Hossler's best chance to win his first PGA TOUR event. 

BET 0.75u on Beau Hossler (+2800) at FanDuel to profit 21u 

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Seamus Power (+3300) 

With two career PGA TOUR wins on his resume, Power is one of the few golfers in this field with true "win equity". Granted, both wins were against weak fields — the 2021 Barbasol Championship and the 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship — but the Shriners Children's Open has a comparable field. 

Also, because -22 is the average winning score for the Shriners since 2010, you need to be able to putt. Well, Power has gained strokes with the flat-stick in nine of his last 10 starts, according to DataGolf.com. This includes the 2024 U.S. Open with the fastest greens of any tournament this season. 

Seamus Power hits his ball out of a bunker during the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson in Mississippi. (Photo credit: Lauren Witte/Clarion Ledger-USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

In his last 10 events, Power finished T20 at the Travelers Championship (a "signature event" on the PGA TOUR), 17th at the John Deere Classic, T10 at the St. Jude Championship (the first round of the FedExCup Playoffs), and back-to-back T11's at the Sanderson and Black Desert this month. 

Power is nasty with his wedges: 25th in APP shots from 100-150 yards over the last 30 rounds, per Bet The Number. Lastly, Power is gaining strokes with his driver, irons, and putter and chipping over that span. 

BET 0.61u on Seamus Power (+3300) at FanDuel to profit 20u 

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Matti Schmid (+5000) 

The driver is Schmid’s best club in the bag. Over the last 24 rounds, Schmid’s drives are 11.4% more accurate and 8 mph faster than the TOUR average, per Bet The Number. Bent is his best putting surface, and he ranks fourth in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): APP out of Bermudagrass rough over the last 50 rounds. So, if Schmid hits a bad tee-shot, he can make up for it. 

Schmid was T26 at the 2023 Shriners while leading the field in SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G), according to Fantasy National. He lost 1.1 strokes on the greens, but he was putting poorly this time last year. The German lost strokes putting in his three starts before the 2023 Shriners. Yet, Schmid has gained strokes putting in three straight starts. 

Matti Schmid lines up a putt during the third round of THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (David Yeazell-Imagn Images)

The 26-year-old has made the cut in his last eight PGA TOUR and DP World Tour events with a T17 at the Omega European Masters in September, a T16 at the Sanderson two weeks ago, and a fifth at the Black Desert last week. If Schmid matches up last year’s T2G game at TPC Summerlin with his recent putting, he can win the Shriners. 

BET 0.4u on Matti Schmid (+5000) at BetMGM to profit 20u 

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Finishing Position Bets 

Make placement bets at BetMGM or DraftKings. BetMGM never applies "dead heat" rules. DraftKings has top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for the Shriners Children's Open 2024. 

J.J. Spaun Top-20 (+170) at BetMGM: 0.7u to profit 1.26u 

Spaun ranks second in my 30-round model at Bet The Number. Over that span, he is third in this field for SG: APP, seventh in APP out of Bermudagrass rough, ninth in SG: OTT, and 18th in APP from 100-150 yards out. Spaun has three T15 finishes or better in seven career starts at TPC Summerlin and three top-10s in his last nine PGA TOUR events. 

Eric Cole is one of my two placement bets for the 2024 Shriners Children's Open at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)

Eric Cole Top-20 (+150) at DraftKings: 0.8u to profit 1.2u 

He tied for third at last year's Shriners despite losing 1.2 strokes putting, which I'm overlooking because Cole is a good putter. Cole is third in my 30-round model at Bet The Number. He ranks second in SG: APP, fifth in Sand Save rate, seventh in total SG on comp courses, and 25th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass. He has five T18 or better finishes in his last nine starts. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.