PGA Championship 2024 Bets: 'Horses For The Course', 'One-And-Done'
Golf's best field this year meets at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky, on Thursday for the PGA Championship 2024. Fifteen LIV Tour golfers join fellow PGA TOUR traitor, and 2023 Wanamaker Trophy winner, Brooks Koepka. Prominent LIV golfers in the PGA field include 2023 Masters champion, Jon Rahm, 2022 Champion Golfer of the Year, Cameron Smith, and two-time major champion, Dustin Johnson.
The Big Cat, Tiger Woods, returns to the PGA Championship. Tiger hasn’t played since finishing 60th at the 2024 Masters. However, current King of the Hill, World No. 1, and new father, Scottie Scheffler is the man to beat at the 2024 PGA Championship. Scheffler is on a Tiger-like heater, winning four of his last five starts.
Tiger Woods plays a shot from a bunker during a practice round for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Three were "signature events" — the Arnold Palmer Invitational, THE PLAYERS Championship, and the RBC Heritage — and the other win was the Masters for his second green jacket. This strategy isn’t for me, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for using their entire 2024 PGA Championship budget on Scottie. He’s that good.
Do you know who is not on a "heater"? This guy. After losing 2.55 units (u) at last week's Wells Fargo Championship, my PGA TOUR 2024 bankroll is -43.36u. My only winning bet in the Wells Fargo was Xander Schauffele to finish in the top 10, which was a "lock" since Xander led after each of the first three rounds.
PGA Championship 2024: Horses for the Course
Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies and the PGA Tour.
Jon Rahm (+1800)
Either the defending PGA champion, Koepka, or Rahm is the best player in LIV. People knock Jon for being winless in his first seven starts on LIV, but his worst finish is T10. Rahm has publicly criticized LIV’s 54-hole format, which is nonsense because he knew this before reportedly signing a $300 million contract. Yet, Rahm would’ve won on LIV if it played 72-hole tournaments.
The Spaniard has just three 70 or worse rounds out of his 21 career rounds on LIV. All three of those rounds were 70 or 71, so he’s not playing "that bad". If Rahm shoots four rounds in the 60s at the 2024 PGA Championship, he’ll finish in the top five. He tied for 45th while defending his 2023 Masters title last month.
That said, there was a lot of pressure on Rahm at Augusta this year. He was hosting the Masters Champions Dinner and answering questions about defecting to the LIV Tour. Speaking of which, what hurts PGA TOUR fans most about Rahm’s departure is that he is either in his prime or still getting better.
Jon Rahm hits an approach shot on Hole No. 1 during the first round of the 2024 Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. (Katie Goodale-USA TODAY Network)
Rahm plays well in majors, winning a green jacket last year and the 2021 U.S. Open. He has gained strokes off-the-tee (OTT) and on approach (APP) in 17 of his 18 career majors with shot-link data and with the putter in 13, according to DataGolf.com.
Ultimately, when you factor in his odds, skill set, and "win equity", Rahm is my favorite golfer in the 2024 PGA Championship field. I’ll be taking Rahm to win, to finish in the top five, and in my one-and-done league.
The first thoroughbred for Valhalla: Jon Rahm
- BET 1.25u on Jon Rahm (+1800) at FanDuel to profit 22.5u.
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Cameron Smith (+4500)
Before bolting to the LIV Tour, Smith was one of the best golfers with his irons on the PGA TOUR. Over his last 48 rounds with shot-link data, Smith is fourth in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): APP, according to Bet The Number. He’s gained strokes on the field in eight of his last nine majors, including six straight.
Smith is a better putter than any golfer at any other skill. He leads the field in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens over the last 30 rounds. The Aussie has gained strokes on the greens in 16 of his 19 career majors with shot-link data, per DataGolf.com. Over the last 40 rounds with shot-link data, Cameron is 23rd in this field for SG: Around-the-Green (ARG).
Cameron Smith celebrates with the Claret Jug after winning the 150th Open Championship at St. Andrews' Old Course in Scotland. (Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports)
Losing Smith was a huge blow for the PGA TOUR too. The 30-year-old won The Open in 2022 and THE PLAYERS earlier that year. He has nine top-10 career finishes in majors, including a T6 at the 2024 Masters, solo fourth at the 2023 U.S. Open, and T9 at last year’s PGA Championship. Finally, Smith has true "win equity" and should have shorter odds than +3000.
The second thoroughbred for Valhalla: Cameron Smith
- BET 0.5u on Cameron Smith (+4500) at FanDuel to profit 22.5u.
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Wyndham Clark (+4500)
Clark is second in the PGA TOUR’s 2024 FedExCup standings and third in the Official World Golf Rankings. He has won two "signature events" over the last two seasons — the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship and 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am — and the 2023 U.S. Open. Heads up, if you’re thinking about following this bet, don’t.
Most of the time I’ve bet Wyndham, he’s choked. Like in the 2024 Masters where he was my "one-and-done" pick. Clark’s missed cut at Augusta and struggling in the title defense of his 2023 Wells Fargo win last week is bloating his odds. Regardless, I’ll try to "catch a falling knife" again because Wyndham’s game is perfect for Valhalla.
Wyndham Clark holds the championship trophy after winning the 2203 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club. (Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports)
In the Betsperts’ 2024 PGA Championship preview, golf writer, Ron Klos, wrote that Phil Mickelson talked about having to carry bunkers and hit high approach shots to contend at Valhalla in 2014. Mickelson finished second behind Rory in the 2014 PGA Championship. Over his last 48 rounds, Clark is ninth in this field for both driving distance and Apex Height, per Bet The Number.
Lastly, Wyndham has the club head speed and power to hit any shot, but he can capitalize on scoring opportunities with the flat-stick. Clark is ninth in SG: Putting and second in birdie-or-better conversion percentage on TOUR this season.
The third thoroughbred for Valhalla: Wyndham Clark
- BET 0.5u on Wyndham Clark (+4500) at FanDuel to profit 22.5u.
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Hideki Matsuyama (+7000)
These odds are disrespectful. Granted, I always bet Hideki and didn't need another excuse. But, Matsuyama has been the third- or fourth-best player on TOUR this season behind Scheffler, Clark, and maybe Xander. Unlike Schauffele, Hideki actually wins. He ran down Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay on the final day to win the Genesis in February.
Matsuyama followed that up with a T12 at the Arnold Palmer, a T6 at THE PLAYERS, and a T7 at the Valero Texas Open. He missed the cut at Augusta in his last start, didn't play the RBC Heritage, and abruptly withdrew from the Wells Fargo last week with a back injury. However, Hideki has been dealing with injuries for years and still contends in big-boy events.
Hideki Matsuyama hits an approach shot during a practice round for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
He plays well at majors thanks to being a wizard around the greens and is precise with his long irons. The 2021 Masters champion is second on TOUR this season in SG: ARG and 19th in APP shots from 200+ yards out. The greens are small and there are a lot of long APP shots at Valhalla. If Matsuyama doesn't set himself up with a birdie putt, he can save par with his elite chipping.
The fourth thoroughbred for Valhalla: Hideki Matsuyama
- BET 0.3u on Hideki Matsuyama (+7000) on FanDuel to profit 21u
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Min Woo Lee (+8000)
Bombers did well at Valhalla in the 2014 PGA Championship and the course is longer this year. Over the last 48 rounds, Lee is seventh in this field for SG: OTT, third in driving distance, second in Ball Speed, and 24th in Apex Height, according to Bet The Number.
He can't hit his irons, but Min Woo has a solid short-game and gets hot with the putter. Lee tied for 18th at last year’s PGA Championship on another long and difficult course despite losing strokes on APP. The 25-year-old has four international wins and has three top-20 finishes in 10 career majors: T18 at the 2023 PGA, T5 at the 2023 U.S. Open, and T14 at the 2022 Masters.
Finally, Jack Nicklaus designed Valhalla and you see a heavy influence from his mentor, Pete Dye. Valhalla is similar to Dye’s TPC Sawgrass, host of THE PLAYERS Championship. Lee played in the 2023 PLAYERS final group with the eventual winner, Scheffler. Min Woo finished T6 after shooting a final round 76 (+4) but showed he could compete against the world’s best golfers on a tough course.
The fifth thoroughbred for Valhalla: Min Woo Lee
- BET 0.25u on Min Woo Lee (+8000) at FanDuel to profit 20u.
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Keegan Bradley (+22500)
Obviously, the odds are a big reason for my interest in Bradley. Like Mickelson and Clark, Keegan can fly it high for a soft landing on Valhalla’s greens. Over the last 48 rounds with shot-link data, Bradley is second in Apex Height behind … you guessed it, Mickelson.
While Bradley isn’t a "bomber", he gains distance on the field at most regular tournaments and majors. He missed the cut at the 2014 PGA. But, Keegan hit his tee shots 10.9 yards longer on average than the field and was +1.30 SG: OTT per round at Valhalla.
Keegan Bradley waves to the crowd after making a putt on the 18th hole during the Round 4 of the 2024 Sony Open in at Waialae Country Club in Hawaii. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
One of the common traits of a Golden Bear layout is it’s a "second shot" course. Bradley is 17th in SG: APP over the last 48 rounds, according to Bet The Number. The 2011 PGA champion has gained strokes on the field with his irons in nine of his last 11 majors with shot-link data, per DataGolf.com.
When Bradley putts well, he shows up high on the leaderboard. The St. John's alum won the 2023 Travelers Championship, finished T9 in the 2023 TOUR Championship, T2 at the Sony Open in January, T11 at Pebble Beach in February, and T22 at Augusta last month. Bradley gained strokes on the green in all of those events.
The sixth thoroughbred for Valhalla: Keegan Bradley
- BET 0.1u on Keegan Bradley (+22500) at Caesars to profit 22.5u.
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PGA Championship 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Jon Rahm
After the 17 events of the 2024 Mayo Cup. I'm tied for 445th out of 4,400 entries with $10,100,122 collected. If the 2024 Mayo Cup ended today, I'd be awarded $440, which includes my $200 entry fee. Rahm is my nuclear missile, whale play for the 2024 PGA Championship and I'll have a top-five bet on him as well.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
- Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
- Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
- Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
- Scottie Scheffler for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 1st for $4,000,000
- Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship: T6 for $875,000
- Min Woo Lee for the Valspar Championship: Missed cut for $0
- Keith Mitchell for the Houston Open: Missed cut for $0
- Corey Conners for the Valero Texas Open: T25 for $67,735
- Wyndham Clark for The Masters: Missed cut $0
- Cameron Young for the RBC Heritage: T62 for $43,600
- Adam Scott for THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: $52,293
- Rory McIlroy for the Wells Fargo Championship: $3,600,000
Jon Rahm plays his fairway shot on the eighth hole during the 2024 TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. (John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports)
Besides Scheffler and Rory, there's a case that Rahm is the best player at Valhalla this week. Rahm is as good of a ball striker as anyone and great with the flat-stick. Plus, I've already used Scottie and McIlroy and Koepka will be the most popular pick in one-and-done leagues at the 2024 PGA since he is the defending champ.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.