PGA Championship 2023 Winning Wagers Include Cameron Young, Matthew Fitzpatrick
The 2023 PGA Championship at the Oak Hill Country Club's East Course in Rochester, New York marks the 2nd major of the season. Oak Hill has hosted several PGA Tour majors, most recently the 2013 PGA Championship.
Since then, renovations have been made to modernize the East Course. In 2019, Andrew Green installed Bent grass greens, tore down a ton of trees, made the sand traps trickier, and restored Oak Hill closer to Donald Ross's original design.
The Wanamaker trophy for the PGA Championship at the 6th hole at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. (Gary Kellner/PGA of America).
Hopefully, the 2023 battle for the Wanamaker Trophy will be a get-right spot for me in golf gambling. You couldn't tell by my current PGA Tour 2022-23 balance (-8.97 units) but I've cashed four outright bets this season.
My performance in last week's 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson is at the bottom of this post. Before following or fading my picks for the 2023 PGA Championship, check out my event and course preview below.
(Pro tip: Start with our partners, DraftKings Sportsbook, but be sure to always shop around for the best odds. Also, look for shops that don't apply dead heat rules on placement bets. I.e. top-5, top-10 etc.)
PGA Championship 2023 Preview: Betting Odds, Course And Event
DraftKings Sportsbook's odds surge for outright bets to win the 2023 PGA Championship.
2023 PGA Championship 'Horses For the Course'
Cameron Young
Here is one of the few golfers that can actually overpower Oak Hill Country Club. Young is one of the longest golfers in the world and Andrew Green’s renovation to the East Course in 2019 will help Young.
Green had “An overabundance of trees of was removed to improve playing conditions, open vistas and reestablish playing lines,” per Golfweek. This openness helps Young because his powerful ball striking gives him more ways to attack this course.
Young has the carry distance to clear the East Course’s fairway bunkers and water hazards. He also has the 3rd-highest ball flight so Young can get the ball to land softly on these small greens.
His new caddie, Paul Tesori, can help him out with course strategy. In his first event with Tesori on the bag, Young finished 2nd at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play in March.
Young is only 30th in my 2023 PGA Championship model because of his weak short game is worrisome at Oak Hill. Around-the-Green (ARG) is tough at the East Course because of the rough’s thickness.
However, Young’s game didn’t fit St Andrews in Scotland and he finished second at last year’s Open Championship. I abandoned my model and cashed top-5, top-10, and top-20 bets on Young at the Open.
Cameron Young plays his tee shot on the 18th hole during the final round of The 150th Open on The Old Course at St Andrews in Scotland. (David Cannon/Getty Images)
Plus, Young finished seventh at The Masters and third in the 2022 PGA Championship, played at Southern Hills Country Club, which has similar course conditions to Oak Hill.
Last year was Young’s rookie season and he finished second in five events. It’s rare for a golfer’s first PGA Tour win to be a major. But, Matt Fitzpatrick did just that at the 2022 U.S. Open. Young has the game to do the same.
1st PGA Championship Thoroughbred: Cameron Young
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick is perhaps the most underrated golfer on Tour. He won the 2022 U.S. Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. I’ve viewed many course preview videos for the East Course at Oak Hill and it feels similar to Brookline.
Both are long, tough Par 70 courses with elevated greens in the northeast. The winning score at last year’s U.S. Open was 6-under par. My projected winning score for the 2023 PGA Championship is 4-to-7-under par.
Furthermore, Fitzpatrick is sixth in total Strokes Gained (SG) at comp courses to Oak Hill. He finished T5 in last year’s PGA Championship with a 3-under par, two strokes behind the winner, Justin Thomas.
Matt Fitzpatrick plays a shot on the 6th hole during a practice round prior to the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Fitzpatrick opened with the same odds as Viktor Hovland and worse odds than Tony Finau (+2200). Neither of whom have won a major. Hovland’s odds fell to +3500 and his last PGA Tour win was in 2021.
Finau won the Mexico Open a couple of weeks ago but that event had one of the softest fields on the PGA Tour this season. Fitzpatrick beat Jordan Spieth at the 2023 RBC Heritage last month and that’s an “elevated event” with a stacked field.
Fitzpatrick is low-key long Off-the-Tee (OTT) and makes up for errant tee or approach shots. He averages roughly seven yards more OTT than the Tour average. Over the last 50 rounds, he ranks 8th in this field in Scrambling.
2nd PGA Championship Thoroughbred: Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sungjae Im
Sungjae is sixth in my 2023 PGA Championship power rankings: fourth on my key stat model, 15th in total SG on comp courses used, and 8th in total SG over the last 24 rounds.
Im didn’t play in the 2022 PGA Championship after testing positive for COVID while visiting South Korea the week prior for the Woori Financial Group Championship. He actually returned to South Korea last week to play in this same event and won it.
Sungjae set up his winning birdie putt with that shot out of the bunker, which is a strength of his game. Over his last 50 rounds, Im ranks 9th in this field for Sand Saves Gained.
As I discussed earlier this week in my 2023 PGA Championship betting preview, the bunkers at Oak Hill are true hazards. Im’s bunker play is exquisite and could separate him from this field.
Sungjae placed in the top 20 in eight of 14 full-field starts this season because he has few weaknesses. Im is 11th in this field for SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT) and 14th in both SG: Ball-Striking and Around-the-Green (ARG).
3rd PGA Championship Thoroughbred: Sungjae Im
Hideki Matsuyama
This is a FOMO bet. Hideki was my favorite pick in last week's AT&T Byron Nelson and he finished T23. But, I'm afraid he is going to win the week after I bet him.
This happened to me when Jason Day won last week's AT&T Byron Nelson after Day failed to make me money when I backed him at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship.
Don't get me wrong, Matsuyama's game fits Oak Hill. Hideki is 8th in this field for long Par 4s, 6th in Scrambling, 19th in Sand Saves Gained, and 3rd in Opportunities Gained all at tough courses over the last 50 rounds.
Hideki Matsuyama plays a shot from a bunker during a practice round prior to the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club. (Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Also, Matsuyama goes well at majors and is the 2021 Masters champion. He has seven top-20 finishes at the Masters on top of his 2021 green jacket. Hideki has six T18s or better at the U.S. Open including 4th last year.
Matsuyama has three T18 finishes or better at The Open Championship and four top-20 finishes in 10 career PGA Championships. In fact, Matsuyama placed T19 in his 1st-ever PGA Championship in 2013, which was played at Oak Hill.
Fourth PGA Championship Thoroughbred: Hideki Matsuyama
AT&T Byron Nelson 2023 Betting Recap: -4 units
Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for most full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season
