Penguins And Sabres Will Light The Lamps Tonight

Penguins vs. Sabres, 7:00 ET

It has been a hell of a week for those that are following me. I have won a bunch of college basketball games in a row, and I won another hockey game yesterday. I've had wins in multiple NHL games now and am looking to follow that up with another win tonight. There aren't many NCAA hoops games going on tonight so I won't have a bet there, which is unfortunate because I've been hot. However, I like the look I have here between the Penguins and the Sabres. 

The Penguins come into this game with an 18-20-8 record for the year. It is a bit crazy to me to thin that 20% of their games have ended with them losing in overtime or a shootout. That means they are getting deep into games and keeping them close, but they can't seem to close the door or actually turn in a victory. It makes sense why they are -225 on the +1.5 puck line. Pittsburgh has struggled on the road, their record is just 6-10-5. Half of their losses came on the road, and another five of their overtime losses have come there. They can be trusted to keep a game close, but I'm not sure that they can pull out a victory. I suppose the defense is to blame for the Penguins record. Right now, they are allowing 3.67 goals per game to opponents. They are allowing only two more shots to opponents per game, but they score just 2.96 goals per game themselves. They have also lost four of their past five games and only scored four goals over their past three games. Tonight they should have Alex Nedeljkovic in the net. He's been below league average for the season with a 7-7-4 record and a 3.40 goals against per game average. He also is only at .886 for his save percentage on the year. 

PITTSBURGH, PA - NOVEMBER 23:  Sidney Crosby #87 of the Pittsburgh Penguins celebrates after scoring his 600th goal in the second period against the Utah Hockey Club at PPG PAINTS Arena on November 23, 2024 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/NHLI via Getty Images)

The Sabres are not much better in the record department than the Penguins, sitting at 17-22-5 before tonight's contest. Their home performance has been about in line with their overall record. They are at 9-11-3 for the season on their home ice. They've pulled out a victory in three of their past five games, two of those three wins have been on their home ice. The Sabres are similar to the Penguins in more than just their record. They are scoring around three goals per game, and they are allowing 3.34 goals to opponents in each game. They allow more shots to opponents than they take themselves. It is just two more shots per game, but that's still not a good sign for their defense. The expectation is that Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is in the net tonight for the Sabres. He hasn't had a great season either with a 14-13-4 record for the year. He has allowed almost three goals per game to opponents, and has a save percentage of .898. He faced the Penguins earlier in the year, allowing six goals to the Penguins.

As mentioned, the Sabres didn't have a great game against the Penguins, allowing six goals to them in an overtime loss. I don't think the Sabres are a lock to win this one, but the Penguins are playing poorly right now and they are also bad on the road. The right lean is the Sabres. I think the better bet is to take the over again. 11 goals in the first matchup, and two goalies allowing at least three goals to the opposition on average. Let's take the over in this game.

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