Penguins And Wild Will Have a Dogfight

Penguins vs. Wild, 8:00 ET

My path of being the worst NHL handicapper in the world continued last night. At least I am consistent, right? There has to be a silver lining though and I'll share it with you: first, if you followed me this year and decided "Hey, this guy can't get anything right, I'll just fade him." you've made a lot of money. Second, yesterday was a long shot. I knew it, I acknowledged it, but I still played it. I also mentioned that the over was a good look in the game. It was an over, but the Islanders made sure there was no chance of overtime. We move on today as I look to try and grab a win a game between the Penguins and Wild.

The Penguins are just 2-3 over their past five games but the two wins have come in their last two games. They sport one of the better defenses in hockey as they allow just 2.64 goals per game and the team they face tonight only score 2.96 goals per game. Pittsburgh is pretty good in Penalty Kill situations and should have the advantage over the Wild in that aspect tonight. This is the second game between the two squads tonight as the Penguins took the first game of the season, winning 4-3 in Pittsburgh. Overall, the team is just 23-17-7 on the season and has been average on the road with a 10-9-4 record. This is their first game on the road after a modest 3-game homestand, but they also have had plenty of rest since the All-Star Break was last week. I would assume that they will put Tristan Jarry in the net as he is their primary goalie and has been very good with just 2.45 goals allowed this season and has six shutouts. When he is on, he is very good. He didn't face the Wild in their first game this season. 

Minnesota isn't the worst team in the league, in fact, they are closer to average than anything. On the season, they are 22-23-5 and just 12-11-3 at home this season. They tend to struggle a bit in Penalty Kill situations but are solid enough when they have their own opportunities. On average they take about the same amount of shots per game as their opponent, but they are allowing .34 more goals per game to their opponents than they are scoring. The Penguins aren't a great offensive team, but they can find ways to beat you. Over the past five games, the Penguins have only scored two or three goals in each of their past five games. The Wild have only allowed three or fewer goals in each of their past five games as well. Marc-Andre Fleury will be in the net tonight. He's been decent for the Wild, allowing just 2.95 goals per game. 

In a typical game, the line is usually set at 6 or 6.5 goals. Over the past five, the Wild would've gone over that total twice and the Penguins would've gone over it just once. It isn't necessarily that offenses are playing poorly, or even that defenses are that outstanding. I think the bigger sign here is the pace that both teams play at. I like the under 6.5 in this game. I also think the Penguins are the better team and will win, but I'll stick to the total in this one. 

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