Pelicans, Raptors Plus Another NBA Lock For Sunday, February 5
Most of us sports gamblers will be stockpiling time with our significant others since the Super Bowl is next weekend. I'm not going to sit on the sidelines Sunday. Instead there's some NBA to gamble on.
Below, I'll handicap and make bets in the Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves, Memphis Grizzlies hosting the Toronto Raptors, and the Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans.
You can listen to the audio versions of these handicaps on my NBA Hoops At Lunch show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed Monday-Friday.
(Word to the wise: It’s the “load management” era in the NBA and random injury news. NBA players are sitting out more games. It would behoove you to wait until the final injury reports before betting.)
Denver Nuggets (37-16) at Minnesota Timberwolves (28-27), 7 p.m. ET
Denver won the frontend of its back-to-back (B2B) Saturday by crushing the Hawks 128-108 at home. Nuggets beat writer Mike Singer made a good point about this schedule spot for Denver on Sunday morning.
The Nuggets score 23.9 more points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time when Nikola Jokic is on the floor, per CleaningTheGlass.com. Jamal Murray has a +7.9 non-garbage time on/off net rating (nRTG) as well.
Not only would Jokic and Murray's losses significantly hurt Denver in this spot. But, Nuggets SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (KCP) left Saturday's game early with an injury and is unlikely to play Sunday. KCP has a +20.2 adjusted on/off nRTG, per CTG).
Nuggets-Timberwolves split their 1st two meetings this season with the home team winning both. However, Minnesota is 2-0 against the spread (ATS) in those games and Denver was on the 2nd of a B2B in both.
Timberwolves wing Anthony Edwards attacks the hoop vs. the Nuggets at Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Jordan Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images)
Minnesota has alternated between winning and losing games over the past four with the latest being a 120-107 upset loss at home by the Magic. The T-Wolves are 12th in nRTG and 5th in ATS margin over the past two weeks, per CTG.
Denver would have its hands full at full strength. If the Nuggets sit two or three starters, based on how well the T-Wolves have been playing recently, Minnesota should roll here.
The Nuggets haven't officially released an injury report as of 11:30 a.m. ET Sunday morning but let's gamble on them resting key players. Even if I get caught with my hand in the cookie jar, the T-Wolves have the talent to cash this bet.
NBA Best Bet #1: Timberwolves -3 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -4
The Minnesota Timberwolves' odds vs. the Denver Nuggets from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, Feb. 5th at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Toronto Raptors (24-30) at Memphis Grizzlies (32-20), 6 p.m. ET
The Grizzlies are wounded and due for regression. They are 1-7 straight up (SU) and 2-6 ATS over the last two weeks with the 27th-ranked adjusted nRTG and worst ATS margin, per CTG.
Memphis could be missing four starters for this game. Grizzlies SF Dillon Brooks is suspended for punching Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell in the balls Friday.
Grizzlies big Steven Adams is sidelined with an injury and I'd argue that's the most important loss for Memphis. The Raptors crash the offensive glass and get a ton of 2nd-chance points. Adams is the Grizzlies' best rebounder and paint presence.
Also, Ja Morant and Memphis PF Jaren Jackson Jr. are both "questionable" to play vs. the Raptors and Jackson sat out the Cavs game. Jackson is the favorite to win the NBA Defensive Player of the Year and you know how important Ja is.
Grizzlies PF Jaren Jackson Jr. and PG Ja Morant at FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee. (Justin Ford/Getty Images)
This is more of a fade against Memphis but Toronto has played better recently. The Raptors are 4-3 SU and ATS with the 6th-best adjusted nRTG and the 3rd-ranked ATS margin over the past two weeks, per CTG.
Memphis beat Toronto 119-106 on the road in their 1st meeting this season on Dec. 29. The Raptors were missing PG Fred VanVleet, Adams had a game-high 17 rebounds, Morant threw a game-high 17 assists and Brooks scored a team-high 25 points.
Raptors wing Pascal Siakam will dominate the paint with Adams out of the lineup and with or without Jackson on the floor. Actually, if Jackson is on the floor, Siakam is likely to get him in foul trouble, which opens another can of worms.
NBA Best Bet #2: Raptors +2.5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to +1.5
The Toronto Raptors' odds at the Memphis Grizzlies for Sunday, Feb. 5th at noon ET.
Sacramento Kings (29-22) at New Orleans Pelicans (27-27), 7 p.m. ET
Frankly, this is a SU gamble because the situation stinks for the Pelicans. They just used a bunch of energy to get a come-from-behind win over the Lakers Saturday 131-126.
New Orleans is 2-6 SU and ATS in the 2nd of a B2B this season, big Jonas Valančiūnas might not play with a knee injury and Brandon Ingram could get an off-night for injury/load management.
The Pelicans just snapped a 10-game losing skid last night and are 10th in the Western Conference standings. NOLA was a top-three seed for the 1st couple of months and cannot afford off days.
Pelicans wing Brandon Ingram shoots over Kings SF Harrison Barnes and big Domantas Sabonis at Smoothie King Center. (Sean Gardner/Getty Images)
Again, it's a gamble, but I think the Pelicans ride the momentum of Saturday's home win vs. the Lakers into Sunday. If Ingram plays, he'll light up Sacramento's weak defense.
The Kings are missing All-Star snub PG De'Aaron Fox who's out for personal reasons. Also, Sactown has played a lot of weak competition recently and isn't the same team without Fox. I'm betting a motivated Pelicans squad pulls this out at home.
NBA Best Bet #3: Pelicans moneyline (-105) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -125
The New Orleans Pelicans' odds vs. the Sacramento Kings from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, Feb. 5th at 12:50 p.m. ET.