Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy Passing Props: The Best Bets For Super Bowl LVIII
There's a pattern to my San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs passing props for Super Bowl LVIII: Unders. Last year's Super Bowl was a barnburner.
The Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35, breaking a four-year streak of Unders in the Super Bowl. Sunday, the Super Bowl will revert to its low-scoring ways.
Or at least that's what I'm betting happens. The 1st step in betting player props is predicting the game script. Since I have the 49ers-Chiefs going Under the 47.5-point total, I'm shopping for Unders more than Overs.
It might be a more boring Super Bowl. But, generally, sports betting professionals profit when title games are boring. So let's try to be sharp and bet some …
Super Bowl LVIII Passing Props
- The odds used are the best available at the time of writing.
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy UNDER 10.5 yards 1st completion (-125) at DraftKings
This is a bit of a coin-flip but the Under is juiced for a reason. Sportsbooks are trying to entice public bettors into taking the Over, set at -105. Instead, I'm going to play the percentages and spend a little extra on a likely winner.
(Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Purdy averages 7.6 yards per pass attempt and 9.0 adjusted yards per throw. The strength of Kansas City's defense is pass rush and coverage. KC's defense is 2nd in yards per pass allowed (5.4) and 1st in sack rate. Plus, the Chiefs are 6th in missed tackles.
San Francisco has one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL and Kansas City plays a "Bend, but don't break" defense. My hunch is the Chiefs will allow the 49ers to run the ball and throw underneath before tightening up on 3rd-down or in the red zone.
_____________________________
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 0.5 interceptions (-115) at FanDuel
My next three passing props are based on Kansas City duplicating its offensive game plan from the AFC championship to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs will "establish the run", kill the clock, and Mahomes won't dropback 30+ times.
Regardless of how many times he throws the ball, I trust Mahomes won't get picked off. He hasn't thrown an interception in six straight playoff games.
(Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Mahomes has no "turnover-worthy plays" in 114 dropbacks in these playoffs. Mahomes leads the NFL this postseason with an 83.1% adjusted completion rate.
_____________________________
Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 25.5 completions (-130) at DraftKings
This correlates with my logic above. Mahomes' per-game median is 24.5 pass attempts. The two-time Super Bowl champion has attempted less than 25 passes in 10 of 19 games this season including two of three playoff games.
_____________________________
San Francisco 49ers UNDER 1.5 sacks (+120) at DraftKings
Technically, this isn't "passing prop" but obviously, it's pass-game oriented. This prop is in the defense and special teams ("D/ST") tab under "Sacks - Team". The Under is taking money, which is encouraging. It went from +130 Wednesday to +120 Thursday.
Granted, the public usually gravitates toward plus-money props for the Super Bowl. However, I don't think your average joe is fading San Francisco's pass rush early in the week.
(Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa is the 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Frankly, the market overrates San Francisco's pass rush because of Bosa. He has a team-high 10.5 sacks but the Niners are just 20th in sack rate.
Finally, Mahomes has probably the best combination of pocket awareness and athleticism of any QB ever. He is 3rd in "pressure-to-sack rate", per PFF. More importantly, KC is 1st in pass-block win rate, per ESPN, and 2nd in sack rate allowed.
_____________________________