Passer Props For The Super Bowl

49ers vs. Chiefs, 6:30 ET

The Super Bowl has a million things that you can bet on and we are going to try to help guide you with everything we can as you try to line your pocket with the last game of the NFL season. I've already discussed some touchdown scorer props in the last article I published, now I'm going to take a look at some passing props. I'm excited to see what happens in this game because we know there are two great defenses, and last year's MVP going against a finalist from this year. How should we play the passing props in this year's Super Bowl?

On the side of the 49ers, we have Brock Purdy under center. On the season, he has averaged 267 passing yards per game. In the playoffs, he has continued the trend and put up 252 yards against the Packers and 267 against the Lions. Purdy did throw 11 interceptions during the season. He has thrown multiple interceptions in three of his games this season - one of them he had four interceptions. The bad news for 49ers fans is that he tossed those against the Ravens a defense similar to that of the Chiefs. The good news is he still threw for 255 yards in the game, but he only completed 56.3% of passes. We probably should look at other top passing defenses he has faced. Against the Browns, he was able to only muster 125 yards on just 44.4% completion. If you want to highlight a game that he looked good in, it was against Dallas, another top-10 passing defense this year. He tossed four touchdowns and 252 yards in that game. Now, if you want to deflate the success a bit, Dallas at home was significantly better than on the road and this game was a road game for the Cowboys. The line for Purdy is set at 247.5 which is 20 yards fewer than the season average and lower than what he put up in both playoff games. This Kansas City defense has been no joke against the pass. Quarterbacks against the Chiefs have gone over the total just five times this season. It only happened once in the playoffs, and it was Lamar Jackson - a game where the Ravens looked like they were trying to prove he was a quarterback. I like the under for Purdy's passing yards. The Chiefs held Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen to under 200 passing yards (the Bills ran wild on the Chiefs and I expect a similar game plan for the 49ers). I think a sprinkle on Purdy under 215.5 passing yards at +210 is worth it. His touchdown line is 1.5 and he has only thrown one touchdown in both games. The Chiefs don't allow a ton of passing touchdowns either so while I don't love his under, I do think that is a safer play than the over. Rather than play the under you could play 1 at +190 or 0 at +425 if you wanted. The final look I have with him is on his completion total. At this point his line is 21.5 Over his 18 total games this season, he has completed 19.5 per game. On this line he would be 1-1 in the playoffs. I know it isn't smart to play his under on everything, but that's the way I lean toward everything. 

Brock Purdy was excellent for San Francisco late last season. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

There doesn't need to be much of an introduction to the guy they are anointing the potential heir apparent to Tom Brady. Patrick Mahomes already has two Super Bowl trophies under his belt and is looking for his third in five years. It is very possible he will be the best to ever do it. Mahomes finished the year in the top-10 of yards, touchdowns, and QBR, but the season was not one of his best. He did throw 14 interceptions, which is the most of his career. However, in the playoffs, he hasn't thrown an interception yet. He also has only been sacked twice this playoffs where he was sacked 27 times during the regular season. The protection has been there. On the season, he averages 261.4 passing yards per game, but that has dropped against the better competition in the playoffs. He did go over the total once but just barely eclipsed it. The 49ers defense is pretty solid and they have only allowed seven quarterbacks to get over 261.5 (Mahomes Super Bowl line) this season. One of those was in the playoffs, it was against Goff and the Lions. Mahomes faced the Ravens, Bills, and Jets four total times this season, and he went over this line just once. He only went over it against the Bills in the regular season. The other three games he wasn't particularly close to the total. The 49ers were at 13 for the season, the Packers, Raiders and Dolphins were close to similar in pass yards allowed in those five games, he only went over the passing total twice. Once was the Dolphins playoff game, and the other was a regular season game against the Raiders. He did go over this line in two of the three Super Bowls. I won't play it, but I'll lean toward the under on his yardage total. I think this will be a slower-paced game, but you know the Chiefs will put the ball in his hands if they want to win. His passing touchdown total is 1.5 with juice on the over. I do think he hits the over as they might try to run the ball, but he could also do those little pitches to someone running across in front of him. I like the under on his 36.5 pass attempts as well. I compare this game to the one he had last season against the Eagles and he didn't even attempt 30 passes. In the first two Super Bowls, he threw over 40 times. 

There you have it, a breakdown of the two quarterbacks for the Super Bowl and how to bet them. I'd say all of these plays are a unit or less. Good luck however you choose to play it! 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024