Panthers Will Cover And Upset The Dolphins In NFL Week 6
Maybe I end up looking like a moron. But, I just have a hunch the winless Carolina Panthers (0-5) will catch the Miami Dolphins (4-1) snoozing Sunday in NFL Week 6. This is Carolina's Super Bowl and a quintessential lookahead spot for Miami.
With that in mind, since 1989, winless teams in Week 6 are 14-4-1 vs. the spread as double-digit 'dogs. The Panthers have a Week 7 bye whereas the Dolphins visit the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles for Sunday Night Football next week.
Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle celebrates a TD pass vs. the New York Giants at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images)
In Week 5, Miami embarrassed the lowly New York Giants 31-16 at home. While the Lions trampled the Panthers 42-24 in Detroit last week. So obviously, there are opposite vibes surrounding these two teams.
The Dolphins have the most explosive offense in the league. Conversely, the talking heads are saying Carolina should've taken Houston Texans rookie QB C.J. Stroud instead of Bryce Young with the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Panthers at Dolphins Week 6
Betting odds for the Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 6.
Here is where my "Yeah, but" comes.
Yeah, but Carolina can keep the chains moving and capitalize on scoring opportunities against a Miami defense that's bad in high-leverage situations. The Dolphins are 23rd in both 3rd-down conversion rate and red zone TD-rate.
Also, Miami's offense has a lot of moving parts and relies on motion and deception. If a Dolphin runs the wrong route and someone misses an assignment, it could be a Panthers pick-six. This happened last week to Miami vs. New York.
All we need is a couple of miscues by the Dolphins for the Panthers to cover as +13.5 underdogs. A stalled drive here or a botched snap there and, all of a sudden, Miami is in a dog-fight.
Furthermore, Carolina gained a season-best 26 first downs last week in Detroit. Granted a lot of that was in garbage time. Sometimes you just need to see the ball go through the hole, so to speak.
The Panthers were 5-of-10 third-down attempts vs. the Lions last week, converted it's only fourth-down attempt and scored TDs in 3-of-4 red zone trips. Carolina can build on that momentum.
Unfortunately, Young likes to checkdown instead of air it out. However, that could work vs. a Dolphins team with the 5th-most missed tackles in the NFL. (Don't look this stat up because you'll be scared off by the Panthers missing the 4th-most tackles).
Plus, Miami has a couple of crucial injuries on offense. Dolphins LT Terron Armstead is on the IR as is rookie RB De'Von Achane. Armstead is a top-10 left tackle in the league and Achane is averaging 12.1 yards PER rush!
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PointsBet opened Miami as -14 favorites and more than 90% of the betting action is on the Dolphins, according to Pro Football Focus. Yet Carolina is down to +13.5 underdogs and 14 is a "key number".
Miami beat New York by 15 last week and the Denver Broncos by in Week 3. So, clearly, the Dolphins can win by margin. Whether it be through the backdoor or an outright upset, the Panthers are covering this spread Sunday.
My prediction: Panthers 27, Dolphins 24