A Pair Of Plays As Blue Jays Take On Twins

Blue Jays vs. Twins, 8:10 ET

I opened one of yesterday's articles talking about how it can be a challenge finding which games I want to write about against what I am betting for the day. I don't always share them on Twitter or X either because first the hate for a loss is annoying, and second I'm just not consistent enough with sharing all of my plays on social media. I ended up going 1-1 yesterday, but the winner was a +136 winner, so a profitable day, even if it was only slight. I'm looking for another profitable day as the Blue Jays take on the Twins. 

The Blue Jays are not fully eliminated from playoff contention, but they signaled to bow out of the playoff race rather early this season. The team struggled even from the very beginning of the year. I thought that perhaps it was just a tough schedule to star the season, but they never really found their footing and made a legitimate push for the division or the Wild Card. There are still very good pieces on the roster - they have a guy that could be an MVP candidate in any given year with Vlad Guerrero Jr. Bo Bichette is having a down year, but should be looked at as a consistent hitter and presence in the lineup next season. He has been hampered by injury this season, and I think that's the bigger issue than anything (he's on the injured list right now). Seems a bit odd that a career .290 hitter would start hitting just .222 this season. They have a decent enough pitching staff as well. Overall, the team is four games under .500 right now, so it isn't like they are a disaster of a team. It just hasn't worked out this season. Tonight, they have Kevin Gausman taking the hill. I assume he will be with the Blue Jays again next year as they try and rebound. Gausman isn't having his best season, but he still is at a respectable 12-9, with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP, both numbers place him in the top-45 of all pitchers. He has been pretty locked in this month as well, going 31.2 innings and allowing just 10 earned runs. One of his worst starts of the season was against these Twins though. In that game he lasted just three innings, allowed 10 hits, six earned runs, and walked two hitters. He still managed to strikeout six hitters in his nine outs though.

Minnesota Twins RHP Pablo Lopez pitches during Game 2 of the ALDS vs. the Astros at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas. (Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Minnesota was my pick to win the AL Central this season, and while that doesn't look like it will come to fruition, they should make the playoffs via a Wild Card berth. I've been impressed with the Twins hitting this year which has led the team to a .253 batting average. Sure they have Byron Buxton and Carlos Correra on the team, but both of them are currently on the injured list, and neither of them lead the team in any of the three main offensive categories. Ryan Jeffers paces the team with 20 homers and 59 RBIs, and Willi Castro leads the team with a .255 batting average. In fairness, if Correa or Buxton played more games this season, they would have the team lead for average. What I like is that the whole team is contributing. Guerrero Jr., for example, has 88 RBIs and four other players have at least 40 RBIs on the team. For the Twins, they have nine guys with at least 40 RBIs this season. Tonight's starter, Pablo Lopez, is having a very comparable season to that of Gausman. Lopez is at 12-8 with a 4.26 EAR and a 1.14 WHIP. Just like Gausman, this month has been a strong one for him. He has thrown 24 innings and allowed just six earned runs. He currently is on a 13-inning scoreless streak. He hasn't faced the Blue Jays this season, but has held their hitters to just a .118 average in 34 at-bats. 

The value here is certainly on the Blue Jays and I don't think I can pass them up. Gausman is probably the worse of the two pitchers in this game at the current time, but I do have him ranked higher overall and trust him more than Lopez. There is no denying that Lopez has pitched well this month though. I think the best thing to do is play the under eight in this one with both pitchers throwing well. I also am going to play the Blue Jays. They are hotter right now, and I think at +142 we are getting a good number.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024