A Pair Of Looks For Houston And Duke

Houston vs. Duke, 8:49 ET

The following is a true story: After the Elite Eight was over, and the Final Four was set, I decided I would go check my brackets. I knew I was doing well in at least one or two of them, because, yes, I picked all four #1 seeds to make the Final Four. To be clear, I'm not from the Geoff Clark school of bracket building - he only does one bracket and enters that into anywhere he is a part of. I do a bunch of different ones with different champions to build my changes of winning. But, two of them, I have the perfect Final Four. I have no chance of making money, no matter who wins. How many times in your life can you say you had the Final Four correct and still can't make money. I don't know if that is a testament to everyone knowing these are the best four teams, or what the lack of upsets, but this was as frustrating as it comes. Let's see if we can make some cash on the game between Houston and Duke. 

Houston won't get the same amount of fanfare and the attention that Duke will just from star power and name recognition. They don't have a ton of players that will be drafted high in the NBA Draft this summer, but they are a talented team that has proven game in and game out that they can compete with anyone. They have just four losses this season, and I say it in just about every article about them - their four losses were by a total of 14 points. They've made it through this tournament with both dominating wins, and close calls. In the opener, they won by 38. The next game against Gonzaga, they had a bit of a scare, but won by five. Then against Purdue, in a game that took place in Indiana, so basically a home game for Purdue, they won by two. Against Tennessee, they held the Volunteers to 15 points in the first half. Not a typo. Tennessee couldn't recover and the game was out of hand right away. Houston will have a tough time scoring in this game, but their defense is intense and that could keep them in it.

Mar 30, 2025; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Houston Cougars forward J'Wan Roberts (13) reacts with guard Milos Uzan (7) after the game against the Tennessee Volunteers in the Midwest Regional final of the 2025 NCAA tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

Duke does have the attention of pretty much everyone right now. Even people who mention they hate Duke seem to like this version of the Blue Devils. I personally think it is hard to root against Jon Scheyer and against Cooper Flagg. Flagg, the #1 pick in the upcoming draft, plays the game the right way. He isn't overly flashy or emotional. He just kind of does everything and then gets ready for the next play. Duke will need to lean on him to find ways to get their offense going, but if Houston keys in on him too much, the other players in blue will absolutely find a way to kill the Cougars. They are too good to try and double Flagg every time. As good as Houston is on defense, Duke is still really talented on that side of the ball as well. Watch them play, and they switch everything. Basically, they don't have a mismatch they are uncomfortable with. 

Houston averages 74 points per game and Duke averages about 84. That puts the total at 158. The total for this game is 136.5 right now, but that is mostly a reflection of the Houston defense which means that the expectation would be that Houston at least is somewhat in control of the game. The NCAA has to want Duke to be in the championship game, so I do expect them to win the game, but I could see Houston keeping it close. Are both of these teams going to reach 70 points? I don't see it happening. I lean toward the under and I lean toward Houston with the points because this game is also in San Antonio so it is pretty much a home game for them. I'll split a unit on both of the plays. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024