Padres Will Take Game 5 And Advance

Padres vs. Dodgers, 8:08 ET

Two series in the Divisional Round are now headed into Game 5. It doesn't quite have the same impact as hearing Game 7, but this is the same situation - a win or go home game. Last night, the Guardians pushed the Tigers to a final game, after a great back-and-fourth battle. We haven't had that many fights in this series. In all four games, the winner was pretty obvious for most of the games. Tonight the Padres take on the Dodgers with a trip to the National League Championship Series on the line.

The Padres had all of the momentum going for them headed into Game 4 and I thought they were going to close it out. San Diego walked into the park for Game 4 and couldn't get any offense going after scoring 16 runs in the previous two games. For most of the second half, the Padres have been one of the best offensive teams in baseball. There will be moments where teams struggle, but this is a bigger concern to me that they were shut out against a Dodgers team whose strength is certainly not the staff. Dylan Cease once again struggled starting the game, lasting just 1.2 innings. By the time Cease left the mound, the Padres were down 3-0 and even that would've been enough as the offense couldn't muster anything runs on seven hits. Tonight their season lies in the hands of Yu Darvish. There haven't been a ton of great starts by actual starters in the playoffs, but Darvish is the owner of one of those. He went seven innings and allowed just three hits, two walks, and one earned run against the Dodgers in Game 2. He needs to replicate that production here. The Padres have been very good in their starts since returning from leave. Darvish has allowed a total of 11 runs in 32.1 innings, and they have won all six games.

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MAY 07: Yoshinobu Yamamoto #18 of the Los Angeles Dodgers reacts to a solo home run from Bryan De La Cruz #14 of the Miami Marlins, as the Dodgers lead 8-2, during the sixth inning at Dodger Stadium on May 07, 2024 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

The Dodgers know how to win in these situations, having experienced a lot of playoff games over the past few years, but anything can happen in a winner-take-all situation. One wrong move could completely change the outcome of the game. Mookie Betts has done everything in his power to keep the Dodgers alive in the series. He has homered in back-to-back games and almost made it three straight if it wasn't for a great play from the Padres left-fielder. He is the Los Angeles catalyst and if he gets it going, the team seems to start rolling. Shohei Ohtani started the series hot but has had just two hits since the first game. He also has struck out in about half of his official at-bats. The Dodgers will need him to step up tonight. Perhaps more important than the hitting is the need for starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto to be the best version of himself today. Yamamoto had a decent enough season although he missed many games. For the year, he was 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. In his only start this series, it wasn't a good outing, but the Dodgers were able to overcome it. He went three innings and allowed five earned runs. Simply put, he can't repeat that again tonight.

The Padres seem to know how to hit Yamamoto. Over three starts this season against them, starting back on Opening Day, the Padres have scored 13 runs in nine innings. The Dodgers have seen plenty of Darvish as well, so I can't say they won't be familiar with him. There has been a lot of offense in this series and I think we are likely to see more today, but in these final games, teams get tight. I'm not coming off of my belief that the Padres will win the World Series. I'll take them to win this one at +125.