Padres, Darvish Will Cruise Past Mets, Verlander Friday

The New York Mets (41-46) head to Petco Park Friday to start a 3-game series with the San Diego Padres (41-46) at 9:40 p.m. ET. These ball clubs are cross-country doppelgängers.

They have the same record and underperforming vs. preseason expectations. NYM is 17.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East. San Diego is 8.5 games back of the Arizona D'Backs out West. But, both are 4th-place in their respective divisions.

Even Friday's starters kind of "Spider-Man meme" each other. Mets give legendary RHP Justin Verlander (3-4, 3.66 ERA) the nod Friday. The Padres counter with 5-time All-Star RHP Yu Darvish (5-6, 4.84 ERA) who's pitched well vs. the Mets historically.

Padres RHP Yu Darvish fires a pitch during the 7th inning of Game 1 of the 2022 NL Wild Card Series vs. the Mets at Citi Field in Queens. (Dustin Satloff/Getty Images)

Darvish is 4-1 in five starts against NYM since going to San Diego in 2020. The Mets snapped his 4-game regular season winning streak vs. them earlier this season. They beat the Padres 5-0 April 10 and Darvish gave up all 5 earned runs.

NYM is 6-4 over their last 10 games but enter Friday on a 5-game winning streak. San Diego is just 4-6 over the last 10 yet the Padres swept the LA Angels 3-0. earlier this week.

Mets vs. Padres Odds

Betting odds for the Mets vs. Padres series opener as of 11:20 a.m. ET Friday, July 7th from DraftKings.

The summer is probably the hardest part of the MLB season to bet. There are no other sports being played and the MLB betting markets are tight. With that in mind, I begin my daily MLB handicapping process by looking at line movement.

Per Pregame.com, more than 70% of the action in the consensus betting market is on the Mets as of late Friday morning. But, the line is moving toward San Diego. The Padres opened as -115 favorites and have climbed to -130 despite the pro-Mets money.

This begs the question:

'Why is the line moving toward New York?'

First of all, NYM has one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The Mets have one of two bullpens in MLB with a sub-0.0 WAR, according to FanGraphs. The Padres had an off-day Thursday and their relievers are well-rested.

Mets manager Buck Showalter makes a call to the bullpen in the 7th inning vs. the Washington Nationals at Citi Field. (Elsa/Getty Images)

Also, Darvish's first game vs. the Mets wasn't as bad as his basic numbers indicate. His FIP ("fielding independent pitching") was just 2.66, per FanGraphs. NYM's lineup only had a 20.0% hard-hit rate and zero barrels on batted balls vs. Darvish April 10.

San Diego is 7-1 in the last eight home games against right-handed starters and 6-1 in the last seven home games when the total is 7.0-8.5. The Mets are 1-4 in their previous five road games vs. righties and 0-5 on the road with a total from 7.0-8.5.

Finally, the Padres are 8th in wRC+, 3rd in BB/K rate, and 7th in WAR over the last week, according to FanGraphs. Verlander grades in the 11th percentile in MLB for exit velocity and 13th percentile for hard-hit rate, per Statcast.

BET: Padres (-130) at DraftKings, up to -135

San Diego's odds vs. New York Friday, July 7th from DraftKings.