Packers Will Expose Cowboys As Frauds In NFL Playoffs, Take Green Bay To Cover At Dallas
If you listen to my OutKick Bets Podcast weekly, you would've heard me question the legitimacy of the Dallas Cowboys as a top-tier team. Well, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and bet the Green Bay Packers when they visit the Cowboys Sunday in NFL Super Wild Card Weekend.
There's no arguing "The Cowboys are a good team". But, are they in the conversation with the San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, or Buffalo Bills? No way. More importantly, Dallas isn't seven points better than Green Bay.
The only quarterback playing better than Packers QB Jordan Love since November is Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. Per RBSDM.com, Love is 2nd to Dak in EPA/play blended with completion rate over expectation over that span. In layman's terms, that stat is "making scoring plays and throwing dudes open".
Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb celebrates with QB Dak Prescott after scoring a TD vs. the Detroit Lions at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. (Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images)
Love has done this despite cluster injuries to Green Bay's offense. His All-Pro LT, David Bakhtiari, has only played one game this season. Love's No. 1 WR, Christian Watson, has missed eight games. Green Bay Pro Bowl RB Aaron Jones was hurt for six games.
Regardless, Love finished the year with 32 passing TDs, 2nd to Prescott's 36. Love's most productive WR this season was Jayden Reed with 64 catches for 793 yards and 8 TDs. Whereas Dak throws to WR CeeDee Lamb who led the NFL in receptions (135) and was 2nd in both TDs (12) and receiving yards (1,749).
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys Odds (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Also, the reason I'm as high on the Cowboys as the market is their defense is overrated. Dallas has the worst defensive rushing success rate in the NFL. This is a problem when facing Packers coach Matt LaFleur who is an elite playcaller and play sequencer.
The Packers have a higher yards after catch per completion than the Cowboys. Love's QB Rating goes from 90.0 in normal drop backs to a 113.7 QB Rating in playaction. Last season, the Packers beat the Cowboys 31-28 in Lambeau.
Packers QB Jordan Love high fives head coach Matt LaFleur after a TD pass vs. the Chicago Bears in NFL Week 18 at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. (Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Granted, Aaron Rodgers was still Green Bay's quarterback. However, Love has a better QBR, success rate, touchdown rate, and interception rate this season than Rodgers last year. Plus, the Packers were healthier on offense last season.
Green Bay ran for 209 yards when it played Dallas in 2022. If the Packers can get the ground game going Sunday, it'll keep the Cowboys' pass rush at bay. And, even without Bakhtiari, Green Bay's offensive line is still elite. The Packers have a higher net sack rate than the Cowboys.
That said, Dallas will probably prevail Sunday. But, the Packers +7 (down to +5.5) is too good to pass up and I'm sprinkling on Green Bay's moneyline. We've seen the Cowboys tighten up in big games and there are too many ways for the Packers to cover this spread.