Packers Will Beat Down Jaguars In Jacksonville

Packers vs. Jaguars, 1:00 ET

In this business you need to have a few things. First, you need a bankroll, obviously. Second, you have to have unwavering confidence because there are time when you will be terrible with the picks and others where you will be on fire you can't wait to place the next bet. Third, and perhaps most importantly, you need a bit of humility. The fact is I put out somewhere around 730 picks per year (2 per day every day). I'm going to be wrong about certain things and really wrong about some of them. Two teams are playing in this one which highlight both ends of the spectrum. I was wrong about the Packers, but I was correct about the Jaguars. 

I wasn't high on the Packers coming into this season, and most of that was due to Jordan Love being under center. It wasn't that I thought the guy was a terrible quarterback or anything. It is more that I thought he was a bit overhyped. There were a lot of people saying he would be the MVP, and I just didn't see it. He's done a great job of getting the ball to receivers, and none of them on his team are household names. He has thrown 15 touchdowns this season, but does have eight interceptions, which isn't ideal. Josh Jacobs is one of the better running backs in the game, but he has only found the endzone on the ground once this year. It doesn't seem like the running game is a primary option for the Packers. Don't expect it to be the primary option in this one either as the Jaguars defense is a top-6 defense against the run. Where you can attack them is through the air. Jacksonville is the second worst team in football against the pass. The Vikings and Ravens surround the Jaguars at the bottom, but the difference is that teams have to throw against those two teams in order to try and come back in games. The Packers should get ahead and stay ahead. 

Sep 23, 2024; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) throws against the Buffalo Bills during the first half at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The Jaguars are having a miserable season, but they did capture their second win last week. They are also coming back from London where they played two consecutive games. They let Caleb Williams throw the ball everywhere on them in the loss to the Bears. The next week, against the Patriots, they went down early, but they were able to win with relative ease. Tank Bigsby had a great game for them, but lets be real here, the Patriots are not a good team. For the season, Trevor Lawrence has racked up yards, but he hasn't been able to convert those to touchdown passes with too many drives stalling out. Against the Packers, they will need to utilize a balanced approach. Green Bay isn't a top defense, but they are slightly above average in both the pass and rush defense. 

The problem is that I don't think the Jaguars are going to be able to keep up with the scoring of Green Bay. The Packers passing game should have a feast against this Jaguars team. I also think it is a bit odd that Jacksonville didn't take the week off after coming home from London. This seems like a terrible spot for Jacksonville. I'm taking the Packers in this game to cover the -4.5 it is listed at right now, but I'd play this up to -6.5 as I think they win by at least one touchdown. There is little reason for confidence in the Jaguars. 

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