Pac-12 Championship 2023 Betting Preview: Oregon Vs. Washington
Perhaps the final Pac-12 title game ever kicks off Friday at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The No. 5 Oregon Ducks (11-1) face the No. 3 Washington Huskies (12-0) for the second time this season.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF COULD CRUMBLE INTO CHAOS THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWING CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
This line feels eerily similar to the 2023 College Football Playoff title game between Georgia and TCU. As of Wednesday afternoon, Oregon is -9.5 favorites at most sportsbooks in the Pac-12 Championship Game vs. a Washington team that beat the Ducks earlier this season.
Huskies WR Rome Odunze catches a TD pass vs. the Oregon Ducks in a Pac-12 game at Husky Stadium in Seattle, Washington. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Georgia closed as -13.5 favorites and schnooks like me took the points with TCU. The Bulldogs delivered one of the biggest beatdowns in championship history, crushing the Horned Frogs 63-7. Clearly, sportsbooks knew something.
That might be the case for the Pac-12 title game too. Oregon is better in both phases of the game (running and passing) on both sides of the ball and Ducks QB Bo Nix will likely win the Heisman Trophy.
HEISMAN TROPHY RACE: LSU’S JAYDEN DANIELS HAS THE STATS, BUT OREGON’S BO NIX HAS THE LEAD AND 1 MORE CRITICAL GAME TO GO
Also, these teams have seven common opponents this season. The Ducks have won by more points than the Huskies against six of those foes. And by a wide margin in most of those games.
For instance, the Ducks beat Stanford by 36 points, Washington State by 14, Utah by 29, California by 44, Arizona State by 36, and Oregon State by 24. While the Huskies beat Stanford by 9 points, WSU by 3, Utah by 7, Cal by 27, ASU by 8, OSU by 2.
Furthermore, Washington’s 36-33 win over Oregon in October appears to be misleading. The Ducks gained 126 more total yards than the Huskies (541-415) and eight more 1st downs (32-24).
Oregon failed on all three 4th-down attempts and missed a would-be game-tying 43-yard FG as time expired. That said, I’m going to be a square again and ...
BET Washington +9.5 (-110) in the 2023 Pac-12 Championship, playable down to +7.5
The Huskies had a 59% postgame win expectancy and averaged nearly two points more per opportunity (5.8-3.9) with a better success rate (51-50%), according to CollegeFootballData.com.
More importantly, Nix is my least favorite active college football player because he sucks in big games. I want to invoice Nix for all the money he cost me while at Auburn.
Oregon Ducks QB Bo Nix celebrates a TD vs. the Washington Huskies. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Nix-led teams (Auburn and Oregon) are 4-10 straight up (SU) and 5-8-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. teams ranked inside the top-10. He averages 216.1 passing yards and has a 13/11 TD/INT rate in those contests. Granted, many of those stinkers were against much tougher SEC defenses.
However, Nix is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS in bowl games with a -12.7 spread differential. Even if we agree the Ducks have the better QB, coach, and defense, I still have a hard time believing they will beat the Huskies by 10+.
Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. stands in the pocket against the Oregon Ducks in a October Pac-12 showdown. (Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
Finally, and I hope it doesn’t come down to this, but there is backdoor cover potential with UW. Per CollegeFootballData.com, Huskies QB Michael Penix Jr. had a +0.57 expected points added (EPA) per play and Nix had a +0.11 EPA/play.
Penix was the frontrunner to win the Heisman before tailing off. Yet, Penix can throw UW back into this game if need be. Since this is the Pac-12 title game, Washington will playing until the final whistle.