Overreact With Me And Bet Browns Over Steelers On Monday Night Football In Week 2
I could be a cautionary tale for "overreacting to the 1st game's results". But, I love the Cleveland Browns (1-0) against the Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) in NFL Week 2 on Monday Night Football.
Cleveland was my pick to win the Super Bowl entering 2023. While Pittsburgh was my pick to finish last in the AFC North. The Browns stomped the Cincinnati Bengals 24-3 at home last week. The Steelers got owned by the San Francisco 49ers 30-7 in Pittsburgh.
However, they beat Cleveland 28-14 in Week 18 last year. The Steelers were -2.5 favorites for that game. Currently, they are +2 home underdogs at PointsBet. Furthermore, the Browns haven't won in Pittsburgh since 2023.
Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson is sacked by Pittsburgh Steelers pass rushers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith at Acrisure Stadium. (Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports)
So how is this not an overreaction?
Well, 1st, Browns QB Deshaun Watson had a whole offseason to work with Cleveland's coaching staff and offensive personnel. Watson was a top-10 NFL QB before his off the field issues and ugly ending with the Houston Texans.
The pendulum has swung too far on Watson as it relates to his abilities due to last year's small sample size. By season's end, Watson will be closer to the top-10 QB he was pre-massage parlor scandals.
Watson celebrates after scoring a 2-point conversion vs. the Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Stadium. (Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)
There's a ton of talent around Watson and Kevin Stefanski has coached up Cleveland's offense without an elite QB. Watson has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL protecting him and RB Nick Chubb is an animal.
Second, the Browns have a defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz to maximize their defensive talent. Myles Garrett is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Garrett could wreck the left side of a Pittsburgh offensive line that was demolished last week by San Francisco.
MYLES GARRETT PRE-SNAP ‘CROSSOVERS’ ARE NO PROBLEM FOR BROWNS COACH KEVIN STEFANSKI, WHO ENCOURAGES MORE MOVEMENT
Steelers QB Kenny Pickett releases the ball as he is hit by Browns DE Myles Garrett at Acrisure Stadium. (Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports)
The additions to Cleveland’s defensive line makes it tough for opponents to double team Garrett. The Browns signed Pro Bowl edge rusher Za’Darius Smith this offseason to line up on the other side and DT Dalvin Tomlinson for the interior.
Finally, Cleveland has a strength-on-weakness edge with its secondary vs. Pittsburgh's WR corp. The Steelers are missing WR Diontae Johnson and are relying on 2nd-year WR George Pickens. Browns CBs Denzel Ward and Gregory Newsome III are one of the cornerback tandems in the NFL.
BET: 1.3 units (u) on the Cleveland Browns (-130) moneyline at PointBet
Browns vs. Steelers Week 2 Player Prop
BET: 0.29u on Cleveland Browns WR Donovan Peoples-Jones OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-115) at PointsBet
Peoples-Jones averages 39.8 receiving yards over his 44-game career and Watson is the best QB he has ever played with in the NFL. But, since Watson became Cleveland's starter, Peoples-Jones has gone Over this number in just three of his seven games.
Watson and Browns WR Donovan Peoples-Jones celebrate a TD vs. the Baltimore Ravens at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)
That said, Peoples-Jones should get more targets Monday because Browns No. 1 WR Amari Cooper is "questionable" to play. Most importantly, PointsBet is dealing a better number for Peoples-Jones than the rest of the market.
The other sportsbooks set Peoples-Jones receiving yard prop at 36 or 36.5. Pinnacle Sportsbook, a market-making shop, has it at 36.5 with heavy juice on the Over (-129).