11 Best Bets, 'One-And-Done' Pick For The 2025 U.S. Open At Oakmont Country Club
Would you take the field or Scottie Scheffler and Bryson DeChambeau?
According to Tin Cup, the U.S. Open is the most democratic golf tournament in the world. This is exemplified by a 17-year-old high school junior qualifying and a full-time dentist hitting the opening tee shot of the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club. Granted, these guys and 100+ other golfers playing in the U.S. Open are "dead money."
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But, hey, at least there's a chance, right? They'll have to beat the toughest field of the year featuring the reigning U.S. Open champion, Bryson DeChambeau, the 2025 PGA Championship winner, and World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, at the world's hardest golf course. Scottie (+275) and Bryson (+750) are the two betting favorites to win the U.S. Open.
Though I agree with them being the favorites, I left Scheffler and DeChambeau off my 2025 U.S. Open betting card. I just can't bet a single-digit favorite in this field at a course as tough as Oakmont (more on that below). Instead, I went with three major champions and two golfers in their 20s who will win one eventually (hopefully this week).
Here is who I'm riding with at Oakmont.
U.S. Open 2025 Betting Card
'Horses for the Course'
- Joaquin Niemann (+3500) via DraftKings, risking 0.71u.
- Viktor Hovland (+6000) via DraftKings, risking 0.33u.
- Hideki Matsuyama (+7000) via DraftKings, risking 0.29u.
- Jordan Spieth (+7000) via DraftKings, risking 0.29u.
- Keegan Bradley (+10000) via DraftKings, risking 0.2u.
Joaquin Niemann (+3500)
I'm betting to win 25u on Niemann, who is third on my 36-round model at Fantasy National, behind World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and reigning U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau. Since Niemann defected to the LIV Tour in 2022, those 36 rounds only include the majors with the toughest course conditions.
He is first in this field for approach (APP) shots from 200+ yards over that span, and Oakmont has three Par-3s longer than 200 yards. Joaquin is ninth in Bogey Avoidance and saving par is as good as a birdie here. Bombers usually win the U.S. Open, and Niemann is eighth in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee (OTT) in the last 36 rounds.
Also, Niemann is the best golfer on the LIV Tour this season with four wins, including last week in Virginia. Joaquin has been disappointing in the majors in his young career. But, he had his best finish (T8) at the 2025 PGA Championship, has made the cut in all four U.S. Opens since turning pro, and is only 26 years old.
Anyone who follows golf regularly knows Niemann will win a major eventually. The U.S. Open was the first major win for seven of the last 10 U.S. Open champions. At 35-to-1, down to 25-to-1, I’m willing to bet Niemann becomes the eighth first-time major winner since 2015 this week.
Viktor Hovland (+6000)
This is a "value bet" on talent. Hovland is the 2023 TOUR Champion, and he's not far from being a top-10 golfer in the world again. He won the 2025 Valspar Championship after missing three straight cuts, so Viktor will randomly pop. That said, Hovland popping at the U.S. Open wouldn't be that random.
He's gained strokes with his irons in 10 consecutive starts since the first tournament of the season, The Sentry, and Tee-to-Green (T2G) in six straight, consisting of his win at Valspar, two majors, and three "signature events". He's also gained strokes on the greens in five of his last six starts, and he is a sneaky good putter.
Moreover, Hovland's biggest weakness is chipping, but that could be muted this week because Oakmont's greens are huge. Hovland was in the final group at The Open Championship in 2022 at St. Andrews, which has some of the largest greens in the world.
Viktor leads this field in APP shots 175-200 yards and ranks third from 200+ yards, according to Fantasy National. Lastly, Hovland is first in scoring on Par 4s of at least 500 yards at majors and has three top-20 finishes in six career U.S. Opens, so I'm placing a top-20 bet on him, too.
Hideki Matsuyama (+7000)
Oakmont’s greenside rough, deep bunkers and tricky green complexes will make it tough for anyone to gain strokes on the field around-the-green (ARG). Yet, Matsuyama is one of the few guys who gains strokes chipping anywhere in the world. Hideki is fourth in SG: ARG this season and led the PGA TOUR last year.
He is first in this field in total SG over the last 36 rounds at the U.S. Open. He’s only missed one cut in 12 career U.S. Opens with three top-10s over the last eight years, including sixth in 2024, fourth in 2022, and second in 2017. Unfortunately, the missed cut was the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont, but that’s part of the 36-round sample size.
Nonetheless, Matsuyama is a good enough player with his irons to give himself birdie looks and the short-game to save par or score from within 30 yards of the green. That's a recipe for winning the U.S. Open on a course as tough as Oakmont. Hideki is the 2021 Masters champion and won the Memorial and The Genesis Invitational at comp courses to Oakmont.
Finally, Matsuyama winning the TOP JAPANESE (+100) market at DraftKings is my best bet for the 2025 U.S. Open. There are four other Japanese golfers in this market, and I've never heard of three despite betting on golf every week. I know Hideki is in the middle of a slump, but an "even-money" wager on him vs. four nobodies is something I'm willing to lose money on.
Jordan Spieth (+7000)
SG: Magic Beans. Spieth just does crazy sh*t to save par or card birdies. He'll hit the ball off the course, into someone's pool, and still "get up and down". Jordan is a three-time major champion and plays well on difficult courses. He has seven top-20s this season with a T14 at the Masters and T7 at the Memorial.

Jordan Spieth hits out of the rough during a practice round for the 125th U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club in Pennsylvania. (Photo credit: Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Ultimately, the winning score at the 2025 U.S. Open will be around -4, and that's a number Spieth can get to. Oakmont prioritizes the driver and putter. Spieth has gained strokes OTT in 12 of his 14 starts this year, including both majors and five "signature events". Again, Oakmont's greens are huge and Spieth leads the TOUR in Approach Putting this season.
Keegan Bradley (+10000)
Doesn’t "Captain America wins the 2025 U.S. Open" sound like a headline you could read next Monday? There isn't much logic to it, but this just feels like a sports-y thing that could happen. Bradley is the American Ryder Cup captain and can auto-qualify for the team as a player-captain by winning the U.S. Open.
More importantly, he is playing well enough this season to win again. Keegan has four top-10’s in 2025, highlighted by a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a T8 at the PGA Championship, and a T7 at the Memorial. The API and Memorial are "signature events" with tough fields and all three are played on difficult courses.
Furthermore, he is fourth in SG: T2G on TOUR this season, 26th in SG: OTT, 12th in SG: APP, and 20th in SG: ARG. Keegan has been terrible on the greens historically and this year (139th in SG: Putting). Yet, the greens at Oakmont are so hard the putting is randomized for the U.S. Open.
Bradley won the 2011 PGA Championship and has won in the three years prior: 2022 ZOZO, 2023 Travelers ("signature event"), and the 2024 BMW Championships (the second round of the FedExCup Playoffs). Hence, Keegan has good recent form, the type of ball striking that wins at U.S. Opens, and legit "win equity" at big-boy events.
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Finishing Position Bets
- Joaquin Niemann Top-10 (+275) via BetMGM, risking 0.5u.
- Viktor Hovland Top-20 (+200) via DraftKings, risking 0.5u.
- Keegan Bradley Top-20 (+225) via DraftKings, risking 0.5u.
- Xander Schauffele Top-10 (+175) via DraftKings, risking 0.75u.
- Patrick Cantlay Top-20 (+150) via BetMGM, risking 0.75u.
- Hideki Matsuyama Top Japanese (+100) via DraftKings, risking 1u.
Xander Schauffele Top-10
Schauffele is the best U.S. Open player without a U.S. Open championship. He's finished inside the top 10 in seven of his eight career U.S. Open. That lone non-top-10 was a T14 at The Country Club in 2022. Xander is having a down year after starting the season late due to a rib injury.

Xander Schauffele on the practice green for the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club. (Photo credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images)
He's flashed every skill this year but just hasn't put it all together for a win. Regardless, Schauffele will contend at a big-boy event this season and the U.S. Open requires skill throughout the bag. With that in mind, Xander is third in my 36-round model when looking at rounds from the majors only.
Patrick Cantlay Top-20
Cantlay is similar to Schauffele in that he doesn't have a weak club in the bag. Patrick has four straight top-20s at the U.S. Open with a T3 at Pinehurst Resort last year. Cantlay is fourth on TOUR this season in Approach Putting (again, Oakmont has big-a** greens), fourth in putting from 5-10 feet (the "money range") on firm and fast greens over the last 36 rounds, and fourth in Par 4 scoring.
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2025 U.S. Open ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Joaquin Niemann
I dropped from fourth to fifth in the Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup after the RBC Canadian Open, which would cost me $10,000 if the season ended today. Fortunately, I still have 10 tournaments left, including one "signature event," two majors, and two rounds of the 2025 FedExCup Playoffs to pass the four people ahead of me.
While I don't need to make a move because I can still win this league by playing it straight, the four people ahead of me don't have Scottie, Bryson, or Rory McIlroy, and all have Jon Rahm, the fourth betting favorite. So, I'm using Niemann here because he's having a better season and I plan on using Rahm at The 153rd Open Championship next month.
Previous Picks (5th with $18,891,124)
- Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0), MC
- The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640), T29
- Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0), MC
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500), T13
- Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0), MC
- The Genesis Invitational: Collin Morikawa ($270,714), T17
- Mexico Open: Nicolai Højgaard ($218,800), eighth
- Cognizant Classic: Davis Thompson ($0), MC
- Arnold Palmer Invitational: Russell Henley ($4,000,000), 🥇
- THE PLAYERS Championship: Sepp Straka ($418,750), T14
- Valspar Championship: Michael Kim ($55,843), T28
- Texas Children's Houston Open: Si Woo Kim ($0), MC
- The Masters: Rory McIlroy ($4,200,000), 🥇
- RBC Heritage: Justin Thomas ($3,600,000), 🥇
- THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson: Jake Knapp ($40,095), T39
- Truist Championship: Ludvig Åberg ($42,500): T60
- 2025 PGA Championship: Bryson DeChambeau ($1,418,667), T2
- Charles Schwab Challenge: Harris English ($22,262), T53
- the Memorial Tournament: Scottie Scheffler ($4,000,000) 🥇
- RBC Canadian Open: Taylor Pendrith ($64,353), T27
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.