OutKick's Pick 'Em Challenge For THE PLAYERS Championship 2024
For every PGA TOUR event this season, OutKick is running a FREE-TO-PLAY Pick ‘Em Challenge for a chance to win a $100 gift card from Amazon. The best part about this challenge is how simple and fast it is to enter. All you need to do is answer a few questions, sit back, and watch golf. This week’s Pick ‘Em Challenge is for golf’s fifth major, THE PLAYERS Championship 2024 at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.
Pick 3 Top 10 Finishers: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Justin Thomas
I build PGA TOUR betting models for every event with the tools from Bet The Number and Fantasy National. Scheffler is first in both of my models, along with everyone else's. Xander is third in both models and JT is second at Fantasy National and sixth at Bet The Number.
Scottie Scheffler holds up The Players Championship trophy at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Corey Perrine/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Adding to that, I used Scheffler and Thomas in my "three-and-done" PGA TOUR betting league and JT is one of my outright for THE PLAYERS 2024. Scottie is the reigning PLAYERS champion and Thomas won this event in 2021. Schauffele was T2 at TPC Sawgrass in 2018 and has four top-10 finishes in six starts this season.
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Scottie Scheffler's Round 1 Score: Over 68.5
Last year, Scheffler won THE PLAYERS by shooting 17-under par with rounds of 68, 69, 65, and 69. Scottie is coming off of a win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2024 where he finally did a good job putting. That said, I think Scheffler's putting regresses from last week.
Scottie Scheffler hits from the fairway of Hole No. 6 during the final round of The Players Championship 2023 at TPC Sawgrass. (Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union/USA TODAY)
Plus, Scottie's first-round tee time is 1:40 p.m. ET and, typically, the a.m. wave scores better than the p.m. wave. Golf courses become firmer and faster as the day progresses and wind gusts get heavier. Lastly, TPC Sawgrass is one of the toughest courses on TOUR where a 69 is still a great score.
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H2H: Patrick Cantlay vs. Wyndham Clark
Clark is in way better form than Cantlay. I had Clark to win last week's Arnold Palmer and he finished in solo second, five strokes behind Scheffler. Wyndham won a "signature event", the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, earlier this season, while Patrick's best finish was a T4 at the Genesis Invitational last month.
Jim Nance and Wyndham Clark with the AT&T Pro-Am trophy at Pebble Beach Golf Links in California. (Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Clark has three wins since Cantlay's most recent win at the 2022 BMW Championship. Last season, Wyndham won the 2023 U.S. Open and Wells Fargo Championship, another "signature event" on the PGA TOUR.
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H2H: Tommy Fleetwood vs. Jordan Spieth
Generally speaking, Fleetwood is a more reliable ball striker, Spieth is a better scrambler and both have great short games. But, lately, Tommy's ball-striking is trash and his results are suffering. Fleetwood is 154th in total strokes gained (SG) on the PGA TOUR in 2024, 129th in SG: Off-the-Tee, and 179th in SG: Approach (APP).
Fleetwood has lost strokes with his irons in three of his four starts in 2024. He dropped 8.1 strokes on APP while missing the cut at last week's Arnold Palmer. Spieth has made the cut in all four starts (minus his disqualification at the Genesis), highlighted by a third at the Sentry and T6 in the WM Phoenix Open.
Jordan Spieth walks to the 12th tee during The Players Championship 2021 at TPC Sawgrass - Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)
Spieth's iron-play has been subpar this season, but his short game is among the best in the world. Jordan is seventh in SG: Around-the-Green and 11th in SG: Putting on TOUR in 2024. If Fleetwood's ball striking doesn't improve, Spieth will get an easy win over him in this head-to-head.
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"Yes", there will be a Hole-in-1 at THE PLAYERS
This is the easiest question of them all. Instead of overthinking it, I just went to a few legal U.S. sportsbooks and looked at their odds for "Will there be a hole-in-one at THE PLAYERS"?
FanDuel has the "Yes" at -150, BetMGM has it at -175, and DraftKings gives -190 odds for a hole-in-one this week at TPC Sawgrass. The implied probability of -150 odds is 60%, -175 is 64%, and -190 is 66%. Since this is a "yes, no" bet and I don't have to pay the juice, I'll happily take the "Yes" here.
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The winner will score a 67 (-5) or better in the final round
TPC Sawgrass is very score-able despite the danger lurking at every hole. They say "Necessity is the mother of invention" and THE PLAYERS 2024 champion will need a big final round to steal a win. At least, that's my prediction.
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.