Make Your Case: OutKick Bettors Debate Monday's Marquee College Hoops Games
Now that the NFL is in its offseason, college basketball takes a bigger priority in the sports gambling world. Because of this, OutKick sports betting analysts Geoff Clark and Dan Zaksheske will ramp up their college hoops betting. Dan Z has been betting on college basketball since January, whereas GC is parachuting into action in mid-February out of boredom.
Monday usually has a lackluster slate in college hoops. Fortunately, there are two intriguing conference showdowns that GC and Dan Z have differing opinions on. Below, they each make a case for their picks to win the ACC clash between Virginia and Virginia Tech. Then, the two tangle in the Big XII game pitting Iowa State against Houston.
Regardless of whose side you're on, the most important thing in sports betting is "line shopping" or finding the best odds for your bet. Luckily, GC and Dan Z save you some time by giving out the price, and sportsbook, for the teams in which they make their cases.
Virginia Cavaliers at Virginia Tech Hokies, 7 p.m. ET
Odds
- Moneyline: Virginia +160 (DraftKings) | Virginia Tech -170 (Caesars)
- Spread: Cavaliers +4.5 (ESPN BET) | Hokies -3.5 (FanDuel)
- Total: 126.5 to 127
Dan Z's Case: Virginia +4.5 at ESPN BET
The square pick in this game is to take ranked #20 Virginia (20-6) plus the points against unranked Virginia Tech (14-11). So, you’d think I would go the other direction. In this case, though, I think books are setting a trap for sharp bettors.
Virginia is overrated, yes. Their predictive metrics place them closer to 50 than to the Top 25. But they’re still better than Virginia Tech (64). Tech is getting a home-court advantage bump, as they should. But no team in America is better at taking a crowd out of the game than UVA.
The Cavaliers play at a snail’s pace (362nd in adjusted tempo, according to KemPom) and frustrate opposing offenses. That leads to restless crowds, begging for big plays and pushes teams to get a little reckless.
Miami Hurricanes PG Nijel Pack attacks the paint with Cavaliers guards Dante Harris and Isaac McKneely playing defense at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia.
(Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports)
Looking at recent results, this is the kind of game where Virginia thrives. They are 4-0 outright on the road since mid-January with wins over Clemson and Florida State. Clemson is like Virginia Tech (in that they play better offense than defense), but better. UVA brought Clemson down to their pace, and they played up to Florida State’s pace and showed they can win both ways.
The Cavaliers already beat the Hokies at home (65-57 in Virginia on January 17), which set UVA off on an eight-game winning streak. I think UVA can easily win this game outright, so I’ll gladly take the 4.5 points.
GC's Case: Virginia Tech -3.5 at FanDuel
After looking at these teams' statistical profiles, I'm following the line movement. Virginia Tech opened as -1.5 favorites vs. their in-state rival and the number has been steamed up to as high as -4.5 at some sportsbooks. This line movement is suspicious considering VT has lost four of its past five games and 65-57 to UVA earlier this season.
However, the Hokies play better in their home gym, and vice versa for the Cavaliers. At home, Virginia Tech is +5.2 in rebounding margin and +6.2 in free-throw attempt margin with nearly three fewer turnovers per game than opponents. Virginia is -5.1 in free-throw attempt margin and -4.4 in rebounding margin on the road.
The Cavaliers consistently rank in the top 10 of defensive efficiency under head coach Tony Bennett and rate 9th this season. But, this is against a cupcake schedule. Per Sports Reference, the Cavaliers have played the 2nd-easiest schedule in the ACC. By comparison, VT's strength of schedule ranks 6th in the conference.
Virginia Tech Hokies guard MJ Collins shoots over Duke Blue Devils C Kyle Filipowski at Cassell Coliseum.
(Brian Bishop-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, Virginia's defense allows far too many threes and VT can shoot the lights out. The Cavaliers are 282nd nationally in defensive 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) and the Hokies are tied for 31st in true shooting percentage, which accounts for 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw shooting.
Lastly, Virginia Tech has more continuity and experience. According to Ken Pom, the Hokies rank 79th in minutes continuity and the Cavaliers are 225th. VT has four upperclassmen in its starting 5 and UVA has one. These edges will help Virginia Tech even the season series with Virginia on its home floor. And do so by margin.
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Iowa State Cyclones at Houston Cougars, 9 p.m. ET
Odds
- Moneyline: Iowa State +360 (BetRivers) | Houston -430 (FanDuel)
- Spread: Cyclones +9.5 (Borgata) | Cougars -8.5 (FanDuel)
- Total: 130.5 to 131.5
Dan Z's Case: Iowa State +9.5 at BetRivers
The case here is simple: this line is too high. Houston is the best team in the country, according to KenPom, but Iowa State sits at #8 overall. Both teams boast incredible defense (Houston rates #1 in adjusted defense and Iowa State is #3) and I expect a slugfest between these two squads.
Iowa State already beat Houston this year, albeit at home (57-53 on January 9). There’s no reason to expect a game that’s much different here. The total sits around 130 points, meaning oddsmakers don’t think this is going to be a high-scoring affair – which makes sense. In that case, we’re ecstatic to get nearly 10 points for the underdog.
Additionally, Iowa State gets up for big games. They’re a ridiculous 6-2 against teams rated inside the Top 25, with wins over Houston, Kansas, TCU (twice), Texas Tech, and Texas. Two of those wins came on the road and one of their road losses – against Baylor – was a two-point heart-breaker.
Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey shoots a 3-pointer over Houston Cougars guard Damian Dunn at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa.
(Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune/USA TODAY)
The Cyclones have only played one game this season where they lost by 10 points or more (87-72 loss at BYU on January 16). And they’ve played a challenging schedule (10 Quad 1 games). Conversely, Houston is just 4-3 in games against Top 25-rated opponents and 1-3 against opponents rated inside the Top 22.
Houston is very good, don’t get me wrong, and they just blasted Texas over the weekend (82-61). But I think that victory is inflating this line just a little too much. Give me the points with the Cyclones in what should be a closer game than the line indicates.
GC's Case: Houston -8.5 at FanDuel
Again, this is a game where the sportsbooks are begging for action on the 'dog. Iowa State is 6th in the most recent AP Top 25 College Basketball Poll and beat Houston 57-53 at home in their 1st meeting last month. Yet, Dan Z found an Iowa State +9.5.
In the 1st Cyclones-Cougars meeting this season, these teams split the "four factors". Houston had higher shooting and rebounding rates, while Iowa State had better turnover and free-throw attempt rates. That said, the Cougars average 10.2 fewer turnovers per game than their foes at home, and the Cyclones grab 4.4 fewer boards per game on the road.
Iowa State Cyclones F Milan Momcilovic defends Houston Cougars G Damian Dunn at Hilton Coliseum.
(Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune/USA TODAY)
Finally, Iowa State's efficiency falls off a cliff on the road. Per Haslametrics.com, the Cyclones rank 362nd nationally out of 362 college basketball teams in "away/home court" performance. Bart Torvik has Iowa State's power rating as 5th, giving it a 94.9% chance to beat an average D1 team in all games. But, on the road, the Cyclones have just an 86.7% chance of beating an average D1 team.
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