In And Out Bet For WNBA Commissioner's Cup

Lynx vs. Liberty, 8:00 ET

You may not be aware of this, but tonight is a rather important game in the WNBA. Tonight the Minnesota Lynx take on the New York Liberty in the Commissioners Cup Championship Game. The way it works is that multiple games count toward Cup play and then the winners from the West and East play for one championship game. The concept is similar to the Play-In Tournament that the NBA has, there just isn't group play or a "bracket" of the four top teams before the championship. What I probably like the best about this is that the players get around $30,000 for each winning player, and $10,000 for each losing player. We know they will be motivated to win the game as this could be more than 10% of what each player makes in a season. Let's take a look to see how we should bet on this Commissioner's Cup game. 

Before we break down the teams, I feel like I should share a bit of history. This is the third time Breanna Stewart will play in the Commissioner's Cup Championship. She is 1-1 so far, and did win the Cup MVP in the inaugural year of the game. Last year, the Liberty were able to win over the Aces and Jonquel Jones took down the trophy. So they are familiar with this game and how to win it. They also beat a much better team (the Aces) last season than they are facing tonight. That team they face tonight, the Lynx, are a good team, but I'm not quite sure that they are going to be a true Finals contender at the end of the year. So far, they are 13-3 and a well-balanced roster is leading the way. They have four ladies averaging 10 or more points and another five players averaging at least four points per game. They have a solid amount of size and some good guards. They have two former Chicago Sky players from last season who have made an immediate impact on the team. Courtney Williams, a guard, is averaging 10.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 5.5 assists per game. She isn't always a threat to shoot, but she has done a good job of finding her spots. Alanna Smith is the other former Sky player. She was a finalist for the Most Improved award last year, and although she didn't win, she looks like she may have taken another step forward this year as she is averaging 12 points per game, five rebounds, and 3.2 assists. She also has been good on defense with two blocks per game and 1.5 steals. They are playing very well right now with nine wins in their past 10 games and six straight wins. 

Phoenix Mercury center Brittney Griner (42) returns as a starter against the Minnesota Lynx at Footprint Center on June 7, 2024, in Phoenix.

The Liberty are one of the two favorites for the WNBA Championship and it is hard to see why they wouldn't be. The team is 15-3 for the year and has won 11 of their past 14 games. After starting the year 4-2 there were rumblings that the team was in trouble, but that became clear quickly that it was overblown. The team is built on a three-headed monster with Stewart, Jones, and Sabrina Ionescu. All three of them are averaging over 16 points per game. Jones and Stewart are beasts on the boards with at least eight rebounds per game. Ionescu has been managing the offense very well and is averaging 6.7 assists per game. The team will likely not be at full strength as Courtney Vandersloot has been out for multiple games and recently lost her mother. She hasn't played since June 4th, and my guess is that she will not be a big contributor if she does miraculously come back for this one. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton could be out as well, so losing two-fifths of your starting lineup isn't ideal for a winner-take-all game. The first game between the two teams was a disaster for the Liberty as they lost by almost 20 points. Jones was in foul trouble for the game which made it difficult for the team to be successful. 

This game will not be like that last one. Personally, I think the Liberty are a significantly better team and one that is more tested as well. We've seen them respond to games that matter more as they took down the Aces in Las Vegas after losing to them in the championship last season. I think the Liberty will win but I'm not sure if the -5.5 is something they will cover. I think the Liberty will start hotter and jump out to an early lead in this game. The crowd will also be behind them. I'll back the 1st quarter -1.5 at -115.

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