Orioles Will Beat Down Gausman, Who Struggles At Home

Orioles vs. Blue Jays, 7:07 ET

The battle of the birds. The battle of AL East foes. Canadians vs. East Coasters (kind of). However is your favorite way to describe this matchup is your choice, but for me, I'm excited to see the Orioles taking on the Blue Jays in Toronto tonight. These teams are on wildly different trajectories for this season, and their destinations are going to be opposite. We have to wait to see the final standings to see if both end up not winning the World Series, but for now, the focus is on what will happen in this game. 

The Orioles are leading the division right now, but they are also technically tied with the Yankees for the lead. The good news for them is that it seems rather unlikely that either they or New York would miss the playoffs. The Orioles have a lot of optimism not only this season, but they should have plenty of years of success ahead of them with one of the best minor league rosters in the game. There was a lot of talk about Baltimore looking to add a young ace to their rotation - someone like Tarik Skubal - but that never came to fruition. There are mixed opinions on that. If you can get a guy like Skubal, he helps you now, but they certainly would be sacrificing some of their future talent to do so. On a franchise that has openly expressed difficulties trying to maintain the payroll with talented players, they need to have a deep roster in order to fill positions as players leave. Tonight they have Dean Kremer taking the hill, a guy I have to imagine would be replaced if they had the opportunity. Kremer is 4-8 for this reason with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. The WHIP is actually decent enough, but that ERA could stand to be lowered a bit. Over his past six starts, Kremer has averaged five innings and 3.33 runs allowed per game. Only one of those starts was a quality outing though. He hasn't faced the Blue Jays this season, but they are 21-for-67 against him over his career. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has four homers against him in the eight hits. One other note on Kremer, he has been better on the road than at home this season. 

TORONTO, ON - MAY 16:  Kevin Gausman #34 of the Toronto Blue Jays delivers a pitch in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Rogers Centre on May 16, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.  (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)

The Blue Jays team president and CEO, Mark Shapiro, just came out today and said that this was the biggest disconnection from expectations he has ever had. The Blue Jays came in with expectations that they would be at least competitive within their division and possibly a Wild Card contender. We are seeing now that they are the worst team in the division. Now the team needs to focus on next season. After dumping a few players at the deadline, the team officially signaled looking for next year. To be clear, Shapiro expressed that he is not expecting this to be a complete rebuild. They kept Guerrero and Bo Bichette as well as tonight's starter Kevin Gausman. In keeping Gausman, they at least provided themselves with an ace for the next year if that's the route they want to go. The only concern is that Gausman has been anything but a starter this season, going 9-8 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. He has been terrible at home this year with a 6.39 ERA. That includes an ugly six run outing where he allowed three homers over 6.1 innings. The Blue Jays lost the game 7-2. Overall, Orioles hitters are 29-for-111 against him with just three home runs - all three are from Anthony Santander. 

I don't have much faith in Gausman at home this season. The Orioles have been a bit streaky lately, but I think this is a good opportunity for us to buy on the squad. Kremer is not always an easy player to back, but I think in this case we should take the Orioles to win this game. I'm going to go with the first five innings for the Orioles at -110. I do think the over 4.5 through five is a good look as well. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024