Open Championship 2023: Matchups, 3-Balls featuring Brooks Koepka Vs. Cameron Smith Vs. Tyrrell Hatton

The 151st Open Championship tees off Thursday, July 20th at the Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, England. Earlier this week, I did a deep dive into the field, course, key stats and tournament history for The Open Championship.

My favorites and longshots for The Open Championship are at the bottom of this post. But, I have a little more room in my bankroll to squeeze a few matchups and a tournament 3-ball onto my Open betting card.

The 151st Open Championship Tournament Head-to-Heads

Joohyung "Tom" Kim (+100) > Cameron Young

This is a case of "wrong golfer favored". Aside from a T6 at the 2023 John Deere Classic, which has one of the softest fields of any PGA Tour event, Young has been horrible lately.

Young finished outside of the top-30 in seven consecutive starts heading into the John Deere with back-to-back missed cuts at the Memorial Tournament and PGA Championship. Kim also missed the cut at both of those events.

But, Kim also finished T6 at last week's Genesis Scottish Open and T8 at the U.S. Open last month. Young is dining on all of his 2nd-place finishes last season including a solo 2nd-place at The 150th Open Championship in 2022.

Tom Kim tees off on the 6th hole during Round 4 of the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club in Scotland. (Octavio Passos/Getty Images)

Kim on the other hand has true "win equity". He's won two PGA Tour events since October 2022: Shriners Children's Open and the Wyndham Championship.

Furthermore, Young ranks 110th in this field for driving accuracy over the last 36 rounds, 119th in Scrambling, and 63rd in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP).

Kim is 8th in driving accuracy, SG: Ball striking (BS), and SG: APP during that stretch. The bottom line is Kim's accuracy plays better at Royal Liverpool than Young's power.

BET: 0.5 unit (u) on Joohyung "Tom" Kim (+100) over Cameron Young at DraftKings

Joohyung "Tom" Kim's odds in a tournament matchup vs. Cameron Young at The Open Championship 2023 from DraftKings.

Corey Conners (-120) > Ryan Fox

First, Fox has a lot more experience on links courses. He won the DP World Tour's 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in Scotland. Last week, Fox finished T12 at the Scottish Open and Conners was T19.

Conners always loses me money because he's an official member of "Team No-Putt". He ranks 130th on Tour this season in SG: Putting and 78th in putting over his last 24 rounds. Fox is 32nd in this field for SG: Putting during that stretch.

Corey Conners reacts to a putt on the 2nd green during the 2nd round of the 2023 PGA Championship. (Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports)

That said, ball striking is a lot more predictive when betting golf than putting. Conners is 7th in SG: BS, 8th in SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT), 11th in SG: APP, and 19th in Birdies-or-Better (BoB) Gained over the last 36 rounds.

Fox on the other hand is 53rd in SG: BS, 61st in SG: OTT, 46th in SG: APP, and 45th in BoB Gained during that stretch. Simply put, Conners is 11th in my Open Championship power rankings and Fox is 46th.

BET: 0.6u on Corey Conners (-120) over Ryan Fox at DraftKings

Corey Conners' odds in a tournament matchup vs. Ryan Fox at The Open Championship 2023 from DraftKings.

Tony Finau (-105) > Matthew Fitzpatrick

First of all, as much as I love our partners at DraftKings, this matchup isn't at that sportsbook. You'll have to do some digging around but Finau-Fitzpatrick is at another shop that's legal in America.

But, if you're a fan of Fitzpatrick, he said some alarming things at his 151st Open Championship press conference Monday. At the 8:25 mark in the video below, Fitzpatrick pretty much "wet blankets" his chances at The Open this week.

If you don't feel like watching the video, I'll paraphrase. Essentially Fitzpatrick says: “I’d argue the Open is my weakest major and my game is not where I want it to be.

For me, a good finish would be top-30 this week, I really do. As an amateur I wouldn’t say I had good results at links courses. If I had to play one last round, I wouldn’t choose a links course.”

Granted, Finau's game has been worse than lately. Fitzpatrick has some nice finishes recently including a T17 at the U.S. Open, 9th in the Memorial, and a win at the RBC Heritage, which is an "elevated event".

Tony Finau on the 14th green during a practice round for to The 151st Open at Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, England. (Andrew Redington/Getty Images)

However, Finau's game fits Royal Liverpool. He is 13th in my stats-based model over the last 36 rounds including 10th in SG: APP, 1st in total SG in windy weather, and 18th in total SG at comp courses.

Fitzpatrick ranks 52nd in this field for SG: APP and 122nd in driving accuracy over the last 36 rounds. Between the penal bunkers, internal out of bounds areas, and knee-high fescue rough, you need to be accurate with the driver this week.

BET: 0.53u on Tony Finau (-105) over Matthew Fitzpatrick

The 151st Open Championship 3-Ball

Brooks Koepka (+180) > Cameron Smith and Tyrrell Hatton

It pains me to fade my boy Cameron Smith (+160) who I bet outright last year in Smith's win at The 150th Open Championship in St Andrews. Smith's weakness is driving accuracy and you cannot miss the fairway this week at Royal Liverpool.

Also, Koepka is at-worst the 4th-best golfer in the world and perhaps the best. At least when it comes to these majors. He tied for 2nd at the Masters in April, won the 2023 PGA Championship in May and tied for 17th at the U.S. Open in June.

Over the last 12 rounds on Tour, which, for Koepka, is only the Masters, PGA Championship, and U.S. Open, Koepka is 4th in my stats-based model. He ranks 2nd in Par 5 scoring, 10th in BoB Gained, 2nd in Scrambling, and 17th in driving accuracy.

Brooks Koepka reacts on the 3rd green during a practice round prior to The 151st Open Championship. (Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

While Koepka has never won an Open, he does have good results in this major. He missed the cut last year at St Andrew but Koepka was T6 at the 2021 Open, T4 in 2019, T6 in 2017, and T10 in 2015.

Moreover, I'm luke-warm on Hatton (+175) at this course. Hatton ranks 103rd in this field for driving accuracy, 94th in APP shots from 200+ yards out, and 96th in Sand Saves over the last 36 rounds.

It's next to impossible to save par at Hoylake if you miss the fairway or land it one of those pot bunkers. Hatton may decide to leave the driver in the bag and layup but he's also struggled with long-iron shots.

BET: 0.56u on Brooks Koepka (+180) over Cameron Smith and Tyrrell Hatton at DraftKings

Brooks Koepka's 3-ball odds vs. Cameron Smith and Tyrrell Hatton at The Open Championship 2023 from DraftKings.

Other Open Championship 2023 handicaps

THE 151ST OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP: 3 TOP-TIER GOLFERS TO BACK

FOUR LONGSHOTS TO TARGET AT THE 2023 OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP INCLUDE HIDEKI MATSUYAMA, KEEGAN BRADLEY

Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for most full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season.