Offenses Can Lead The Way In Padres Vs Red Sox

Padres vs. Red Sox, 7:10 ET

Cross country battles are always some of the more interesting matchups in my opinion. Sure, every team plays every other team, usually in two series each year. There is always a bit of intrigue with interleague play and there are some interesting considerations when teams are traveling across the country to play each other. Today we have these things and more to think about as we place a bet on the game between the Padres and the Red Sox.

The Padres are over .500 which isn’t something that you could say about the club very often over the past few years. The team has done a ton to try and become a winning club and just can’t find a way to get over the hump. We aren’t saying the team is some sort of phenomenal team at this moment, but being over the mark is certainly better than chasing mediocrity. If they can get some bullpen improvements, I think they could have a legitimate shot at becoming a Wild Card team. Just like in poker, all you need is a chip and a chair. They have the hitting to make this work, and if the pitching holds, they will have to be considered a serious threat against anyone that they play. Tonight they send out Randy Vasquez to the mound, and he is not someone that I’d want in my playoff roster, or even my rotation to this point. His numbers are probably worse than actual performance, but he doesn’t pass the eye test either. This month he has made five starts and only one of them was truly pathetic as he allowed six earned runs on 12 hits over 4.1 innings. My biggest issue with him is that his WHIP is 1.68, which means there are a lot of players getting on base against him. He has pitched very poorly on the road as well with an ERA over 6.50. He has only faced the Red Sox hitters 10 times and allowed one hit. It was, of course, a home run to Rafael Devers. 

Boston Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers hits a double against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre in Canada. (John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports)

The Red Sox continue to be one of the biggest surprises of the season to me. I think this club is overperforming on virtually every level. We will see if they come back down to Earth a bit in the second half of the season, but there is a real possibility that they are going to be in a position to make the playoffs. I had them finishing dead last in the division, so once again, I was wrong with a playoff future (to give myself a bit of credit, I did take the Brewers at +800 to win the NL Central. They are currently favorites). The pitching has done very well without a true Ace, and the team does have a star in Devers, but I’m not quite sure how ready I’d be to debate him being a superstar. Either way, one of their better pitchers is going tonight as Nick Pivetta is taking the ball for the Red Sox. He has a 4.06 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP. His low WHIP indicates that he is probably pitching better than his luck is showing. This has been a decent month for him as he has two quality starts, and two outings where he has only gone four innings. Padres hitters have been strong against him with 14 hits in 44 at-bats. Kyle Higashioka is the only guy that has been consistently good against him though. 

This feels like we should bet the over. Pivetta is capable of throwing a great outing any time he takes the ball, but the Padres are good at offense and have shown in the past they can deal with his stuff. Vasquez is not a good enough pitcher to trust to contribute to an under and the Padres bullpen is more than accommodating for allowing runs. Back the over. 

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