Off The Cuff: Early NFL Week 4 Betting Looks
Well, Week 3 was a trip. The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the snot out of a second straight opponent after tearing up the Los Angeles Chargers 38-10. The Miami Dolphins slayed a banged-up Buffalo Bills team 21-19 to take control of the AFC East.
Look at a couple of these goofy final scores. The Denver Broncos upset the San Francisco 49ers 11-10 on Sunday Night Football. The Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers beat Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14-12.
Every week, I’ll be going through the opening lines of the upcoming NFL slate and stop to focus on lines that look off. Sometimes I’ll make a bet and other times it’ll just be analysis.
NFL Week 4
Thursday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET
Miami Dolphins (3-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) in Paycor Stadium
(Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
LEAN BENGALS -3.
The Dolphins could be the "fake sharp" pick of Week 4 because they just upset the almighty Buffalo Bills Sunday. But, Miami is coming off of a physical divisional matchup and go to Cincy on a short turnaround.
London Game on Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET
Minnesota Vikings (2-1) vs. New Orleans Saints (1-2) in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
LEAN Saints as a teaser leg.
Maybe I'm too invested in New Orleans but I'm not giving up on the Saints. More importantly, this is a primetime game albeit overseas. We know how Vikings QB Kirk Cousins performs on primetime and NOLA's defense is still stacked.
If the Saints can clean up some of the turnovers and keep QB Jameis Winston clean, NOLA can win this game outright and definitely cover a teaser leg.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Window (nine games)
Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-2-1) in NRG Stadium
PASS.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert is clearly not 100% and DE Joey Bosa exited L.A.'s loss to Jacksonville early with an injury. The Texans somehow upset the Chargers 41-29 last year and have some solid pieces.
Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Detroit Lions (1-2) in Ford Field
PASS.
I get that the Seahawks are bad and everyone loves the Lions. But, I'm not ready to bet on Detroit as 6-point favorites with how suspect its defense is. Seattle QB Geno Smith has played well above expectation through three weeks and still has a good pair of wide receivers to work with.
Chicago Bears (2-1) at New York Giants (2-0) in MetLife Stadium
PASS.
We are still "sight unseen" with the Giants who host the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
My "lean" is towards N.Y. since Bears QB Justin Fields is really struggling and Chicago is by far the worst winning team in the NFL.
Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-1-1) in Lucas Oil Stadium
PASS.
My numbers agree with the sportsbooks' so I don't see any value in Titans-Colts. Yet.
Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1) in M&T Bank Stadium
(Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
BET RAVENS +3.
I'm not in a rush to bet on this game because the market loves Buffalo. But, I made this line Ravens -3 since the Bills have several backups in their secondary.
Buffalo was without both starting safeties in Week 3's loss to the Dolphins. Baltimore's offense is too potent and the Ravens quietly have one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL.
The bottom line is RAVENS +3 is just too many points to give Lamar Jackson at home.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) in Lincoln Financial Field
(Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
BET JAGUARS +7.
The Eagles haven't played an entire game of quality football yet. In their last two victories, the Eagles got out to double-digit leads in the first half but failed to score in the second half.
I'm a believer in this Jaguars thing. Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence is flashing the potential that made him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Also, Jacksonville's defense has the speed to match Philly's offense.
Washington Commanders (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at AT&T Stadium
PASS.
Dallas still has to play its Week 3 game but Washington has looked atrocious in Weeks 2 and 3. Maybe, after further contemplation, I can get behind a Commanders' teaser leg.
New York Jets (1-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) at Acrisure Stadium
PASS.
If anything, I'd bet the Under because both starting quarterbacks should not be starters.
Cleveland Browns (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2) in Mercedes-Benz Stadium
PASS. This spread matches mine and I don't see a lot of value in either side of this one.
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Window (three games)
Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-2) in Bank of America Stadium
LEAN CARDINALS (-105).
If we are being fair, both of Arizona's losses were against tough competition (Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1 and Los Angeles Rams Sunday). These teams are pretty evenly matched aside from the quarterback position where I give the Cardinals a significant edge.
New England Patriots (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (2-1) in Lambeau Field
PASS.
New England's roster is bad and the sportsbooks are confirming that by making Green Bay double-digit favorites. I think it's a trap line that's trying to goad bettors into backing the Patriots. That said, this is too big of a number to lay with the Packers given how poor their offense has looked thus far.
Denver Broncos (2-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-3) in Allegiant Stadium
PASS.
I was down on both teams entering this season and feel vindicated through their first three games. Las Vegas owner Mark Davis is already unhappy with first-year coach Josh McDaniels and Broncos QB Russell Wilson looks terrible in Denver.
Sunday Night Football at 8:30 p.m. ET
Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) in Raymond James Stadium
PASS.
While I disagree with making Brady a home underdog, I do get it considering how awful Tampa's offense has been through three weeks.
Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET
Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (1-2) in Levi Stadium
LEAN RAMS as a teaser leg.
Shanahan has owned Rams coach Sean McVay in recent years. L.A. snapped a 6-game losing skid to San Francisco in the 2022 NFC title game. But, the Rams have a more complete roster and the 49ers have played horribly in two of their first three games.