Off The Cuff: Early NFL Week 3 Betting Looks
The NFL Redzone channel was bonkers in Week 2. There were several insane comebacks including the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals both rallying from double-digit second-half deficits to win.
Every week, I’ll be going through the opening lines of the upcoming NFL slate and stop to focus on lines that look off. Sometimes I’ll make a bet and other times it’ll just be analysis.
NFL Week 3
Thursday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns in FirstEnergy Stadium
PASS.
I'm still not a believer in Browns QB Jacoby Brissett but he's starting to change my mind. Cleveland should've moved to 2-0 in Week 2 but squandered a 14-point lead with two minutes to play. And the Browns' offense has played well with Brissett under center.
The problem is I power rank Brissett ahead of Steelers QB Mitch Trubisky and Cleveland's defensive line should dominate Pittsburgh's weak offensive line. Furthermore, I hate fading Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin when Pittsburgh is an underdog.
Sunday 1 p.m. ET Window (nine games)
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts in Lucas Oil Stadium
PASS.
K.C. eked past the Los Angeles Chargers in a thrilling Thursday Night Football game while the Colts were pummelled in Week 2 by the Jacksonville Jaguars. I cannot believe the Colts are 0-1-1 but Matt Ryan has been terrible through his first two games in Indy.
Even though Ryan doesn't look like a starting NFL QB at the moment, the Colts roster is too talented to lay six points on the road with the Chiefs.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins in Hard Rock Stadium
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen reacts against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
LEAN BILLS -4.5 (-110) because Buffalo has owned the AFC East since QB Josh Allen broke out in 2020. Since then, the Bills are 8-4-1 ATS vs. division foes with a +9.7 ATS margin and 32.1-15.5 final margin.
Furthermore, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is 0-3 overall vs. the Bills in his career. Tua has a 56.4% completion rate with 1/4 TD/INT ratio and a 59.8 QB Rating in those meetings.
That said, I cannot get fully there on Buffalo because Miami's offense looks sick. Tua had an all-time, six-TD performance in a 42-38 come-from-behind vs. the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots in Gillette Stadium
PASS.
Baltimore's injuries are starting to add up but New England's roster is suspect. Also, I don't put much stock into the Patriots' 17-14 win Sunday vs. the Steelers since Trubisky is one of my lowest power-ranked QBs in the NFL.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers in Bank of America Stadium
NOLA is 0-2 ATS thus far while Carolina has choked away both games in Week 1 and 2. More importantly, Saints QB Jameis Winston is dealing with fractures in his back and throughout most of his first two games.
Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans in Nissan Stadium
(Justin Ford/Getty Images)
BET TITANS (+100) on the ML. There's no way Vegas should be favored going into the AFC's 2021 playoff 1-seed. Most of the sports betting space has pegged the Titans for regression this season.
But, nothing we've seen out of the Raiders that suggests they should be a road favorite. Vegas is 2-5 ATS as road favorites with a +11.6 ATS margin since 2019.
We are still "sight unseen" with the Titans as this is being written before their Monday Night Football game in Buffalo in Week 2. However, Tennessee could easily become 3-point favorites if the Titans upset the Bills Monday.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings in U.S. Bank Stadium
(Elsa/Getty Images)
LEAN LIONS +7.5 (-110) because Detroit's roster is low-key talented and QB Jared Goff is playing well through the first two weeks. Also, the Lions were 1-1 overall and 2-0 ATS vs. the Vikings last season and have a better roster this season.
Houston Texans at Chicago Bears in Soldier Field
PASS.
It's the Revenge of Lovie Smith game for the current Texans coach who once guided the Bears to Super Bowl 2007. So there's that. Otherwise, I don't have a handicapping angle for Texans-Bears. Yet.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets in MetLife Stadium
PASS.
I've teased the Bengals down below key numbers in both Week 1 and 2. I'm 0-2 in those games as is Cincy. This Super Bowl hangover might be a real thing for the Bengals.
Also, N.Y.'s crazy victory over Cleveland in Week 2 could be a momentum-builder for the Jets. Or N.Y. could go back to sucking. I'm not in a position to call it either way at the moment.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders in FedExField
PASS on The Carson Wentz Revenge Game.
Sunday 4 p.m. ET Window (four games)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers in SoFi Stadium
LEAN CHARGERS AS A TEASER LEG (down to L.A. -1). The major thing holding me back is the health of Chargers QB Justin Herbert. But, the Chargers are 4-1 on 6-point teasers as favorites of seven or more since 2020.
However, Week 3 could be a let-down for the Jaguars after dominating the Colts at home Sunday. Also, Jacksonville looks competent for the first time in QB Trevor Lawrence's young career.
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks in Lumen Field
LEAN FALCONS AS A TEASER LEG (up to Atlanta +8). This is your standard "advantage" teaser that pushes the Falcons' spread past the key number of seven. The bottom line is Seattle shouldn't be more than a TD favorite vs. any team in the NFL.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Raymond James Stadium
PASS. This is definitely Week 3's marquee game and I want no part of it until I'm able to soak up more information.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals in State Farm Stadium
PASS. That's all. I'm just not feeling this game at the moment.
Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos in Empower Field at Mile High
(Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
BET 49ERS AS A TEASER LEG (up to San Francisco +8.5). The Niners are a better team with QB Jimmy Garoppolo back under center and Denver fans are already pissed at new QB Russell Wilson.
Monday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants in MetLife Stadium
PASS. As a Giants fan, I recuse myself because of hometown bias. Also, I've bet against the Cowboys twice with second-string QB Cooper Rush starting over the last two years. My record: 0-2.