Oddsmakers Favor ‘Oppenheimer’ To Clean Up At 96th Academy Awards

Honestly, the older I get, the less I enjoy the Academy Awards. I stopped watching the Oscars when Joaquin Phoenix won Best Actor at the 2020 Academy Awards and used his acceptance speech to lecture everyone about how awesome it is to be vegan. It was one of the douchier Oscars acceptance speeches I've ever seen. And that's saying a lot. This doesn't matter to the rest of the article, but Joe Pesci made the greatest acceptance speech ever in 1991 for his role in Goodfellas. 

Anyhow, Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer has 13 nominations at the 2024 Academy Awards. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Oppenheimer as a heavy favorite to win Best Picture, Director, Actor (Cillian Murphy), and Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.). Nolan and his movie both have -5000 odds to win Best Director and Best Picture, respectively. For context, "-5000" odds mean you need to bet $5,000 to profit $100.

The implied win probability for a -5000 price tag is 98.04%. I.e. Oppenheimer is a "lock" to win Best Picture. Betting on the Academy Awards is a relatively new thing, for me, at least. But, there have been some underdogs to steal the Best Picture Oscar. In fact, from 2016-20, all underdogs won for Best Picture. However, none of the favorites over that span had odds as high as Oppenheimer this year.

Spotlight won in 2015 (+350) when The Revenant was the favorite (-250). Moonlight won the award in 2016 at +600 (much to Warren Beatty’s surprise) from La La Land, which had -450 odds, according to The Ringer. The Shape of Water took home Best Picture in 2017 as a slight ‘dog (+167) over favorite Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+102). Green Book (+210) upset Roma (-155) in 2018. Then Parasite (+350) became the first non-English film to win Best Picture in 2018 when 1917 was the favorite (-250).

There hasn’t been an underdog to win Best Picture since Parasite in 2019. So, does that mean we are due for an upset? I wouldn’t bet on it. The only underdogs I could see winning are The Holdovers (+3500) and Killers of the Flower Moon (+4000). The latter is a Martin Scorsese movie with Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert De Niro, and the lock to win Best Actress, Lily Gladstone. Since the movie has crazy star power and deals with America’s crappy treatment of Native Americans, I could fathom the Academy giving Killers of the Flower Moon Best Picture.

Warren Beatty approaches 'La La Land' producers on stage as they celebrate after the film was mistakenly named Best Picture during the 89th Academy Awards at Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles. (Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY NETWORK)

The Holdovers’ Da’Vine Joy Randolph is -3500 to win Best Supporting Actress and Paul Giamatti has a shot to upset Murphy for Best Actor. Also, it just feels like everyone loved The Holdovers. For those who haven’t seen it, it’s essentially Scent of a Woman starring Al Pacino or Dead Poet’s Society with the late Robin Williams.

With that in mind, Paul Giamatti winning Best Actor (+600) is the only underdog I’m betting at the 2024 Oscars. Giamatti has a long acting career and has never won an Oscar. I could see Hollywood hooking up one of their own (Giamatti) and screwing Murphy, an Irishman, who’s more of a Hollywood outsider.

Also, I’d lay -250 for Gladstone to win Best Actress for her role as Mollie Kyle in Killers of the Flower Moon. Gladstone won this award at a bunch of other award shows, prominently the 2024 Golden Globes, Actors Guild Awards, and National Board of Review. There is a chance Emma Stone will win Best Actress for her turn in Poor Things. Stone won this award at the 2024 British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) and Critics’ Choice Awards.

Lily Gladstone at the 81st Annual Golden Globe Awards in Beverly Hills, California. (Sonja Flemming/Pool via USA TODAY NETWORK)

My last bet for the 2024 Academy Awards is Anatomy of a Fall for Best Original Screenplay (-280) at DraftKings. For the record, I’ve never seen this movie nor will I. Wikipedia calls Anatomy of a Fall a "French legal drama". It’s about a woman accused of murdering her husband and their blind son is the only witness. I’m betting this to win this award because it won at the Golden Globes and the BAFTA.

More importantly, Pinnacle Sportsbook is booking the Anatomy of a Fall for Best Original Screenplay at -501 odds. Again, DraftKings has this screenplay listed at -280. Pinnacle is a market-making oddsmaker because it books the largest bets. Granted, that’s mostly in sports betting but I’m applying similar logic to the Academy Awards. Professional bettors will look for angles anywhere and Pinnacle won’t get caught with its pants down.

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