'Nut-Crunching Time': Celtics Vs. Heat Game 4 Will Go Under The Total
Something tells me the Boston Celtics (0-3) will live to fight another day after visiting the Miami Heat (3-0) Tuesday at the Kaseya Center for Game 4 of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals (ECF).
That said, I cannot get to the betting window with the Celtics because they are getting out-classed. Miami humiliated Boston 128-102 as +4.5 underdogs in Game 3. The Heat out-performed the Celtics in three of the "four factors" Sunday.
Heat wing Jimmy Butler operates in the triple threat Celtics G Derrick White plays defense in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals at Kaseya Center in Miami. (John McCall/Sun Sentinel/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
Boston is a mess and Miami's Erik Spoelstra is coaching circles around Celtics 1st-year coach Joe Mazzulla. When the Heat eliminate the Celtics, Mazzulla may be the 2nd straight coach Spoelstra gets fired.
Anyhow, the Over has cashed in the 1st three games of the ECF and Game 3 was trending Under the 214-point total before Celtics-Heat combined to score 74 points in the 4th quarter. Game 4 feels like the perfect time to zag on the total.
BET: UNDER 216.5 in Celtics-Heat Game 4, down to 215.5
This ECF has a 96.3 pace and the 2023 NBA postseason average pace is 96.8. However, Boston’s back is against the wall and the tempo usually slows down in elimination games.
Also, I’m one of the few NBA handicappers that don’t look at the Heat’s playoff 3-point shooting as a “fluke”. Miami led the NBA in 3-point percentage last season with essentially the same team.
But, the Heat’s shooting almost has to cool off a tad (pun intended). They have a 60.5% effective field goal rate (eFG%) in this series. Miami ranked 25th in eFG% during the regular season at 53.0%.
Heat PG Gabe Vincent shoots a contest shot over Boston Celtics PG Marcus Smart in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals at the Kaseya Center in Miami. (Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
Heat SF Caleb Martin is hitting 63.2% of his 3s in this series and PG Gabe Vincent is 55.6% from behind the arc. I like Martin’s and Vincent’s role in Miami’s offense but that isn't sustainable.
Furthermore, the Heat live in the mid-range, which is the most inefficient shot in basketball. Plus, they are getting wide-open looks on just 13.8% of their 3s in the Eastern Conference Finals.
To put that into perspective, the Hornets had the worst wide-open 3-point attempt rate during the regular season at 15.5%. Miami is hitting 58.8% of its wide-open 3s, which, again, is unsustainable.
Heat PG Kyle shoots a 3-pointer in Game 3 of the 2023 ECF vs. the Celtics. (Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)
Finally, according to VSIN, nearly 90% of the action at DraftKings is on the Over for Heat-Celtics Game 4. The Over is the most bet market in Game 4 and we all know fading the public is a tried and true gambling angle.
BET: UNDER 216.5 in Celtics-Heat Game 4, down to 215.5
Game 4 Player Props
Celtics SF Jaylen Brown Point Prop: 23.5
Brown has the worst true shooting rate, 39.8%, of any Boston player in this series. He is shooting 37.7% from the field, 10.0% from behind the arc, and 50.0% from the charity stripe.
Miami doesn't have someone for Brown to hunt. Brown's primary defender in Game 3 was Heat SF Jimmy Butler who is a lock-down defender. Otherwise, Miami has two other elite defenders including Martin and Bam Adebayo.
Celtics SF Jaylen Brown drives to the cup during Game 3 of the ECF vs. the Heat. (Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images)
More importantly, legal U.S. sportsbooks have a different price for Brown's point prop than Pinnacle Sportsbook. Pinnacle is considered the sharpest shop in the world because it books the largest sports bet in the world.
Well, DraftKings lists both the Over and Under for Brown's point prop at -115 whereas Pinnacle lists the Under with heavier juice. Eventually, the U.S. legal books will catch up but, for now, let's lock in a bet on Brown's Under at this price.
BET: Boston wing Jaylen Brown UNDER 23.5 points (-115) at DraftKings
Celtics PG Malcolm Brogdon Point Prop: 13.5
Brogdon is another Celtics who is having a poor shooting series. His true shooting rate is 48.5% in the ECF (.379/.250/.778) and Brogdon's workload and minutes have been decreased incrementally every game in this series.
For instance, Brogdon played 36:49 in Game 1 (scored 19 points), 26:03 in Game 2 (scored 13 points), and just 18:23 Sunday. In Game 3, Brogdon went 0-fer on 0-for-6 shooting with a -23 on/off rating.
Celtics G Malcolm Brogdon drives to the paint on Heat PG Gabe Vincent during Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals in Miami. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Brogdon has scored more than 13.5 points in only two of his six games vs. the Heat this season, including the playoffs. Since Game 4 is a must-win for the Celtics, I could see them relying on core and this is Brogdon's 1st season in Boston.
The Under for Brogdon's point prop is pricier at most other sportsbooks, including Pinnacle than at DraftKings. Still, the Under is pricey but it's pricey for a reason.