Number Is Too High In This Round Two Matchup

Illinois vs. Kentucky, 5:15 ET

It wasn't a very pretty Friday for me, and now we have the second round of those games here today on the closure of the opening weekend of March Madness 2025. I took a couple of moneylines and lost both of them. I had a total and a spread as well that fell. There was just one win for me on day two, so I am looking to avenge my loss here as Illinois takes on Kentucky in the second round.

Illinois has had one of the strangest seasons you'll see in College Basketball. They were ranked for a good chunk of the year, but they also then played really poorly at times, dropping them to a point where they were no longer ranked. The Fighting Illini had some remarkable games, and then they had some where they were absolutely dominated and blown out. There was a stretch of basketball, which likely was the cause of some of the ugly losses, where the team suffered through some sort of virus. On January 8th, the team was 12-3 with a 4-1 Big 10 record. By the end of the season, they were just 20-11, going 12-8 in the conference. They do tend to struggle against certain types of teams - Maryland has beaten them twice, Duke absolutely blew them out, and they lost twice to Michigan State. With all that said, the Illini actually looked pretty good in the game against Xavier to open the NCAA Tournament. If they play that way, this team could make a deep run. They have the pieces, it really is a matter of consistently putting it all together.

Nov 13, 2024; Champaign, Illinois, USA;  Illinois Fighting Illini forward Ben Humrichous (3) blocks Oakland Golden Grizzlies forward Buru Naivalurua (12) during the second half at State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-Imagn Images

Kentucky didn't really have the same types of up-and-down games, but they also couldn't really figure out the consistent approach to the game around January. As of January 4th, they were 12-2, having just beat a really good Florida team in Florida. Then the remainder of the season, they went just 9-8 before the SEC Tournament. I get that the SEC was really deep this year, but Kentucky is a basketball school that has a lot of talent. Sometimes it takes a while for a program like that to come together. With this season it seems like they played better to start (wins over Duke, Gonzaga, and Florida) than they did ending it. They barely beat Oklahoma in the SEC Conference Tournament, and the next day were smoked by Alabama. It is a bit hard to predict when they are going to be great, and when they are going to crap the bed.

For this one there are a number of factors that I like about both teams. I think in terms of talent they are evenly matched. The coaching is fairly even as well. The offensive firepower for Illinois is probably better than that of Kentucky, but I also think that the defense for the Wildcats is much better than that of the Fighting Illini. The total on this game is very high, and that is as much of a reflection of Illinois offense (and defense really) as it is of anything. It probably is an indicator that they win the game. However, I do think this is too high. Only one of Kentucky's last five games would've gone over the 170.5 total (though many are coming dangerously close). Also, only one of the past five Illinois games would've gone over the total. Back the under here.

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