Penn State Will Outclass One-Dimensional Notre Dame In The Orange Bowl

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Then there were four in the 2024-25 College Football Playoff. Whittled down from 12 teams, the CFP semifinal kicks off Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET when the 7-seed Notre Dame Fighting Irish meet the 6-seed Penn State Nittany Lions at the Orange Bowl. Notre Dame is roughly -1.5 across the market with a -120 moneyline, and the total is 44.5. 

Penn State punched its ticket to the CFP semifinals by demolishing the SMU Mustangs 38-10 in the first round and Boise State Broncos 31-14 in the quarterfinals. The Fighting Irish beat the Indiana Hoosiers 27-17 in the first round and the Georgia Bulldogs 23-10 in the quarterfinals en route to the Orange Bowl. 

As I wrote for my Sugar Bowl betting preview, Georgia didn’t have a chance without QB Carson Beck. It was Georgia’s second-worst team in the Kirby Smart era, ahead of only Smart’s first season in Athens. Hence, I’m not putting much stock into Notre Dame’s 23-10 win over the Bulldogs in the CFP quarterfinals. 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish face the Penn State Nittany Lions Thursday in the Orange Bowl in the 2024-25 College Football Playoff. (Photo credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images)

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish face the Penn State Nittany Lions Thursday in the Orange Bowl in the 2024-25 College Football Playoff. (Photo credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images)

The Fighting Irish had fewer first downs (16-14) and yards per play (4.9-4.0) than the Bulldogs. One of Notre Dame’s was 13 yards long after Georgia fumbled the ball on its side of the field. Another was a 98-yard kick return touchdown for the Fighting Irish to begin the second half. 

Georgia was 0-for-3 on fourth down and lost the turnover battle 2-0. So, the Sugar Bowl was more about the Bulldogs losing than the Fighting Irish winning. Granted, Penn State definitely "played with its food" vs. Boise State. However, the Nittany Lions did what they set out to do: shut down Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty. 

Penn State held Jeanty, the runner-up for the 2024 Heisman Trophy, to 104 rushing yards on 30 carries with no touchdowns. All Notre Dame did to beat Georgia was not make mistakes. Fighting Irish QB Riley Leonard had 90 passing yards vs. the Bulldogs. That’s just not going to cut it vs. Penn State Thursday. 

Boise State Broncos RB Ashton Jeanty is tackled by the Penn State Nittany Lions during the Fiesta Bowl in the 2024-25 College Football Playoff quarterfinal at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images).

Boise State Broncos RB Ashton Jeanty is tackled by the Penn State Nittany Lions during the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images).

Furthermore, Notre Dame could be without star RB Jeremiyah Love, who led the team with 1,076 rushing yards and 18 total TDs (16 rushing and two receiving). Love broke the Indiana game open with a 98-yard TD run, but only had 10 touches due to an illness. He tweaked his knee vs. Georgia and had just 7 touches for 21 yards. 

Ultimately, I’m betting on the Nittany Lions because they can pass and run. Both teams can take away the run, but Penn State QB Drew Allar is the much better passer. Plus, the Fighting Irish don’t have any game-breaking pass-catchers, whereas Nittany Lions TE Tyler Warren will be the first tight end off the board in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Prediction: Penn State 23, Notre Dame 17

  • This is my favorite bet of the two CFP semifinal games. For what it's worth, I'm taking the Nittany Lions' +100 moneyline, available at several sportsbooks.

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