North Carolina Is The 'Right Side' Vs. South Carolina In Week 1
The No. 21 North Carolina Tar Heels from the ACC meets the South Carolina Gamecocks from the SEC in Week 1. The Battle of Carolina goes down at a neutral site: Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.
UNC finished 9-5 straight up (SU) and 6-7-1 against the spread (ATS) in 2022. The Tar Heels got crushed by Clemson 39-10 in the 2022 ACC title game. North Carolina then lost the Holiday Bowl to Oregon 28-27.
North Carolina Tar Heels QB Drake Maye throws a TD during the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl vs. the Oregon Ducks at Petco Park in Calfornia. (Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The Gamecocks went 8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS in coach Shane Beamer's 2nd-year on the job. They ended the 2022 regular-season on a high note by upsetting Tennessee and Clemson. But, South Carolina lost the Gator Bowl to Notre Dame 45-38.
Entering 2023, UNC has the 4th-best odds to win the ACC at DraftKings Sportsbook (+1200) with a regular-season win total of 8 (-120/+100). South Carolina is tied for the 9th-best odds to win the SEC (+10000) and has a 6-win total (-125/+105).
North Carolina vs. South Carolina Week 1 (DraftKings)
South Carolina-North Carolina Week 1 betting odds from DraftKings as of Wednesday, August 30th.
I've done a 360° on this game. At 1st, I leaned toward North Carolina. Then I read South Carolina’s preview chapter in college football analyst Phil Steele's 2023 season preview and then inched towards the Gamecocks. Now, I'm back on UNC.
My reasons for backing the Tar Heels include their edge in experience, my betting market analysis, and South Carolina's terribleness in the run game on both sides of the ball.
First of all, Steele says the Tar Heels have the 6th-highest experience rate nationally. UNC lost its two top WRs from last year but kept its six leading rushers and top-five tacklers. They have 17 returning starters including 2022 ACC Player of the Year QB Drake Maye.
Maye runs for a TD during a game between the North Carolina and the North Carolina State Wolfpack. (David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Pro Football Focus (PFF) had Maye as the highest-graded QB among Power 5 schools last year. That includes the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, former Alabama QB Bryce Young, and soon-to-be 1st pick in next year’s draft, USC QB Caleb Williams.
Maye is expected to be taken 2nd in the 2024 NFL Draft behind the Trojans QB. My biggest concern for UNC coming into 2023 is its pass blocking. But, I'm banking on Maye overcoming this with better pre-snap adjustments and getting rid of the ball quicker.
Either way, ...
South Carolina was awful in the trenches last season
The Gamecocks were 127th out of 131 charted teams in line yards per snap differential in 2022. Last season, they averaged 3.8 yards per rush and gave up 4.9 yards per carry. South Carolina gave up at least 200 rushing yards in seven of 13 games last year.
If South Carolina were better in the trenches, I’d probably back them vs. a non-SEC team. In fact, I was in the middle of writing up a pro-Gamecocks handicap before switching it up.
South Carolina Gamecocks WR Antwane Wells Jr. celebrates with QB Spencer Rattler after scoring a TD vs. the Kentucky Wildcats. (Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports)
However, South Carolina vs. North Carolina could turn into a QB battle. And not only do the Tar Heels have the better QB but they can actually run the ball too. This game's total is up to 63.5 so the market expects points Saturday. If that's the case, give me the multi-dimensional offense.
Finally ...
The line is moving toward North Carolina
Based on where this UNC-South Carolina started and the available betting splits, it appears that the Tar Heels are the sharp side. North Carolina opened as -1.5 favorites and is currently an expensive -2.5.
Yet, per SportsBettingDime.com, more bets and money are on South Carolina. The market remembers how the Gamecocks ended 2022 and understands that the SEC is by far the best conference in college football.
But, UNC being favored regardless and the Tar Heels getting pricier is noteworthy. No one likes to fade SEC squads in out-of-conference games and the sportsbooks are begging you to bet South Carolina in Week 1.