No One Is Betting The Bears At Washington Thursday In NFL Week 5 … Except Me
That's right. I'm doing it. I'm backing a winless Chicago Bears (0-4) team no one wants anything to do with. Not even Bears fans. Chicago heads to FedExField to play the Washington Commanders (2-2) on Thursday Night Football in Week 5.
Both teams almost won in Week 4. The Bears squandered a 28-7 lead to lose 31-28 at home to the Denver Broncos. Washington also blew a first-half lead in a 34-31 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
But, my buddy Dan Zaksheske during the OutKick Bets Podcast for NFL Week 5, reminding me of a trend here. Since 2009, teams coming off overtime games are 4-11-1 against the spread as favorites on Thursday Night Football.
Bears at Washington Week 5 odds (PointsBet)
This is a quintessential let-down spot for a young team. I'm considering Washington "young" because it has a first-year starter at QB, Sam Howell. The Commanders just played a tough overtime game vs. a divisional opponent. Now they have to get up for a team they are expected to beat.
LISTEN to the OutKick Bets Podcast: 'NFL Week 5 Winners with Dan Z & Scott Martin'
However, I like what I saw from Bears QB Justin Fields and Chicago's offense last week vs. Denver. Fields had career-highs in completion percentage over expectation (+20.5%), passing TDs (4), passing yards (335), and QB Rating (132.7).
Granted, the Broncos have a terrible defense. Yet this Washington defense isn't exactly the '85 Bears. In fact, Chicago's ground game has a strength-on-weakness edge over the Commanders' rushing defense.
The Bears are fifth in yards per rush (4.7) and run-blocking win rate, according to ESPN. Washington, on the other hand, is 26th in yards per rush allowed (4.5) and 27th in yards before contact allowed, per Pro Football Focus.
Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell scrambles down the field against the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. (Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
Finally, who the f— are the Commanders to be favored more than -4 over anyone in the NFL? Yeah, I get it, the Bears are bad. That said, Washington ranks 22nd or worse in net expected points added per play, net yards per play and net pressure rate.
The bottom line is I make the Commanders -4 vs. Chicago. At PointsBet, we are getting +6 with the Bears and +220 on their moneyline (ML). Both of which are showing value according to my numbers.
My prediction: Bears 25, Commanders 21