No One Is Betting Penn State Nittany Lions To Win The Big Ten In 2024 But They Should Be

Despite adding four teams, including the USC Trojans, the Big Ten is finally winnable for the Penn State Nittany Lions in 2024. However, I hear very few people backing Penn State in these Big Ten 2024 betting previews. It's mostly the Big Ten newcomer Oregon Ducks or the powerhouse Ohio State Buckeyes. 

Coach James Franklin is 88-39 in 11 years at Penn State with five 10+ win seasons, including two straight. Ohio State's dominance overshadowed Franklin's consistency, and then Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines took over the conference from 2021-23. Well, Harbaugh took his talents to the NFL, and I'm still not sold on Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day. 

James Franklin will win his second Big Ten title with Penn State In 2024 

Let's discuss Penn State's talent before I circle back on why the Big Ten is winnable in 2024. Nittany Lions junior QB Drew Allar is a 5-star recruit who had an outstanding 2023 in his first year as a starter. Allar completed 59.9% of his passes for 2,631 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a 136.9 QB Rating (fourth in the Big Ten). 

Furthermore, Penn State has 17 starters that are either 4- or 5-star recruits, including seven on the offensive side of the ball. Nittany Lions RBs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return in 2024 and college football guru Phil Steele says Penn State has the second-best backfield in the country. 

Penn State Nittany Lions QB Drew Allar hands off the ball to RB Kaytron Allen vs. the Michigan State Spartans at Ford Field in Detroit. (David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports)

Divisions are no longer a thing in the Big Ten this year, which helps the Nittany Lions because they played in the East division with Ohio State and Michigan. Penn State's three losses last season were at Ohio State, vs. Michigan, and vs. Ole Miss (#6 in the AP Poll). 

Even though the conference added four teams, the Nittany Lions play the 49th-toughest schedule this season. They have a soft non-conference schedule. Penn State doesn’t play #3 Oregon, the second betting choice to win the Big Ten in 2024, or #8 Michigan, and host #2 Ohio State in what will most likely be a "White Out" game. 

Related: Ryan Day Running From Expectations At Big Ten Media Days? He Has To Beat Michigan To Extend Stay At Ohio State

Its two toughest games are at USC and at Wisconsin. But, Southern California has only a 7.5-win total and +2000 to win the conference and the Badgers have a 7-win total with the Under juiced to -145 and Big Ten odds of +6500. Comparatively, Penn State is the third betting choice at +500 and has a 10.5-win total. 

The Nittany Lions host Big Ten newcomer, and 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship runner-ups, Washington, which lost its head coach to Alabama, and Heisman finalist quarterback and three leading receivers to the NFL. 

The Ohio State Buckeyes try to block Penn State Nittany Lions QB Drew Allar's pass at Ohio Stadium. (Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY NETWORK)

Ultimately, Penn State’s conference title hopes come down to beating its easy opponents and upsetting OSU. The Nittany Lions knocked off the Buckeyes in 2016 en route to Franklin's only Big Ten title in Happy Valley. Yet, Ohio State’s postseason ranking in the AP Poll has been worse than the preseason from 2021-23. Harbaugh has something to do with that. That said, Day won’t live up to OSU’s "championship or bust" expectations as Urban Meyer did. 

READ: Will Howard Wins Ohio State QB Battle But Buckeyes Might Ultimately Lose In Long Run | Barrett Sallee

Also, the Buckeyes are clearly stacked. But, they have a transfer quarterback, Will Howard, instead of a stud 5-star recruit. Howard won the 2022 Big XII title with the Kansas State Wildcats but was probably going to lose the starting quarterback job to Avery Johnson at KSU. It’s a bad sign that Ohio State is taking Kansas State’s sloppy seconds.

Finally, the Nittany Lions will have a top-five defense in the country. In 2023, Penn State led the nation in defensive expected points added per play. Steele says the Nittany Lions have the second-best defensive line nationally, the sixth-best linebacker room, and the ninth-best secondary. 

_____________________________ 

Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants.