No Monday Night Football Means It's Time To Bet The NBA
The NBA moved out of the NFL's way for conference championship Sunday but returns with a vengeance Monday. There's 12 games on the card Monday with a few intriguing matchups if the star players decide to play.
You always have to couch NBA regular-season conversations with "Yeah, but 'load management'". As a lifelong basketball fan, it's a disgrace how little the NBA and its players care about putting on a show for their paying customers.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast NBA Show for Jan. 29th featuring David Troy
Regardless, a love for betting professional basketball combined with the lack of other sports to bet and my confidence in handicapping the NBA equals me slamming my face against the wall again with these ...
NBA Best Bets For Monday, Jan. 29th
OVER 236 in New Orleans Pelicans at Boston Celtics, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Pelicans rank 4th in defensive 3-point percentage but that’s misleading. They are 28th in wide-open 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) on defense. “Wide-open” is when the 3-point shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender.
New Orleans’s opponents are shooting just 34.6% on wide-open threes, which is the 4th-lowest rate in the NBA. I.e. NOLA’s impressive defensive 3-point percentage is more good luck than good defense. Boston is the worst team in the NBA to give up wide-open threes to. The Celtics lead the Association 3-pointers per game and 3PAr.
Also, Boston is coming off of a humbling 115-96 loss at home to the Los Angeles Clippers Saturday. Celtics PG Jrue Holiday candidly called it a “Good old-fashioned a** whooping”. Since 2020, Boston is 18-5 straight up (SU) and 15-8 against the spread (ATS) and Over/Under (O/U) at home after losses of 10 or more points.
Celtics SF Jayson Tatum takes a layup on the New Orleans Pelicans in an NBA game at TD Garden in Boston. (Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports)
New Orleans games average 4.3 more points per game (PPG) on the road (232.0-227.7 PPG). Celtics role players perform better at home. Boston’s bench has the best net rating in the NBA at +4.2, which improves to an NBA-best +6.4 at home.
Finally, the Pelicans are shooting well enough from behind the arc to do their part in cashing the Over. Their 41.4% 3-point rate this month ranks 2nd in the NBA. Given NOLA’s defensive strategy and both teams’ 3-point shooting, this game should be at least 245 points in this game.
My prediction: Celtics 128, Pelicans 117
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5), 8 p.m. ET
This is the Timberwolves-Thunder regular-season finale. Oklahoma City is 2-1 SU and ATS in the 1st three meetings. The Thunder are in the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B) after losing to the lowly Detroit Pistons Sunday 120-104, snapping OKC's 5-game winning streak
Yet, I'm looking at this as a "buy low" spot for the Thunder. They still have the 2nd-best net rating in the NBA. Adding to that, Oklahoma City is 5-2 SU and ATS with a +15.1 spread differential on the 2nd of a B2B.
Oklahoma City Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander backs down Minnesota Timberwolves SG Anthony Edwards at the Target Center in Minneapolis. (Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, this is just a bad matchup for the T-Wolves because the Thunder should win the "battle for possessions". OKC is 4th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%), 1st in defensive TOV%, and lead the NBA in points off of turnovers per game.
Minnesota on the other hand is 21st in points off of turnovers allowed per game and dead-last in offensive TOV%. Oklahoma City averages 11.7 fewer turnovers per game in the three games vs. the T-Wolves this season (21.7-11.0). It's hard to make up that kind of deficit in possessions.
Lastly, the Thunder's dribble penetration gets them quality looks. For example, they lead the NBA in drives per game and average five more wide-open 3-pointers per game than the Timberwolves. If OKC guards are beating their defenders off the dribble, Minnesota's size advantage becomes null.
My prediction: Thunder 119, Timberwolves 113
Milwaukee Bucks (+4) at Denver Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET
Typically, Nuggets PG Jamal Murray’s production is the difference-maker against top-tier opponents. That said, Milwaukee All-Star PG Damian Lillard is a better version of Murray. Both are scoring guards and Dame is the best scoring guard in the NBA behind Steph Curry.
Furthermore, Milwaukee has the size to at least make Nikola Jokic uncomfortable. Whether or not it works (probably not), we’ll see. But, Bucks C Brook Lopez is one of the best defensive bigs in the NBA. And Giannis Antetokounmpo is down there to help with The Joker.
Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic attempts a shot while Bucks C Brook Lopez and PF Giannis Antetokounmpo collapse on him at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports)
The Nuggets don’t have the 3-point shooting to space out Milwaukee’s defense; Denver is 25th in 3-pointers per game. Plus, the Bucks have a better shot quality at both ends of the floor, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. They are 4th in offensive shot quality and 3rd defensively. While the Nuggets are 15th in defensive shot quality and 16th offensively.
Drawing fouls is Milwaukee’s major basketball-edge. The Bucks average +3.3 more free-throw attempts per game than their opponents and Denver is -1.7. The Nuggets have one of the worst benches in the NBA so they could fall behind if the Bucks get them into foul trouble.