No Diana Taurasi Friday? Gimme Caitlin Clark, Indiana Fever Over Phoenix Mercury

The Fighting Caitlin Clarks, aka the Indiana Fever (9-14), host the Diana Taurasi-less Phoenix Mercury (12-10) Friday at 7:30 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. The Fever are 1-2 in those contests. These teams met for the first time this year in Phoenix June 30 and the Fever upset the Mercury 88-82 as +8 road underdogs. 

They won despite a poor shooting performance by Clark, who went 4-of-14 from the field (2-for-10 on threes). Taurasi was +9 vs. Indiana June 30 and out-scored Clark 19-16. The Fever won three of the "four factors" and crushed the Mercury on the glass. Indiana had a +14 rebound differential in that game (42-28). 

Phoenix Mercury at Indiana Fever odds (FanDuel) 

• Moneyline: Phoenix (-150) | Indiana (+122)
• Spread: Mercury -3 (-108) | FEVER +3 (-112) 
• Total — 175.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)

If Taurasi's injury keeps her out of the Paris Olympics next month, there is a chance Clark will replace her. Taurasi has missed back-to-back games and two of three. Phoenix is 2-1 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) over that span. Without Taurasi, the Mercury are -3 road favorites vs. a team they just lost to because of recency bias. 

Indiana Fever rookie Caitlin Clark chucking a three over Phoenix Mercury SG Diana Taurasi at the Footprint Center in Arizona. (Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

They've won three straight games. The Fever are 1-2 SU and ATS and lost 89-84 to the Washington Mystics Wednesday as -7 home favorites. But, the Mercury beat the Dallas Wings twice and the LA Sparks. Dallas has the worst net rating in the WNBA and LA is 10th out of the 12 teams. Plus, Indy out-scored D.C. 29-13 in the final frame, nearly stealing that game. 

Furthermore, Clark admitted to being "star-struck" the first time she played against Taurasi. Clark said: "That's somebody I grew up idolizing [Taurasi] and looking up to and wanting to be like one day" before the last Mercury-Fever meeting. More importantly, Taurasi has a +12.3 on/off net rating, so she's a big loss for Phoenix. 

Lastly, the market isn't baking Indiana's "home court" edge enough into these odds. Phoenix scores 10.4 fewer points per game (PPG) on the road. The Fever are 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS at home while scoring 3.6 more PPG and allowing 1.2 fewer PPG. Given Taurasi's absence and the Mercury's struggles in away games, we are getting 3 points of value here. 

BET INDIANA +3 (-112) at FanDuel. The Fever are playable down to a pick 'em. 

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