No Caitlin Clark Game Tuesday But There Is Still Money To Make Betting WNBA
A meeting between the two best WNBA teams may be watered down by injuries. The first-place New York Liberty (20-4), who could be missing its best player, C Breanna Stewart, host the second-place Connecticut Sun (18-5) at Barclays Center Tuesday at 7 p.m. ET. Stewart is a two-time WNBA MVP, six-time All-Star, and the Liberty's second-leading scorer and leading rebounder.
Her possible absence is "baked into the odds". New York was -2.5 road favorites in its 71-68 win in Connecticut Wednesday and just -3.5 favorites at home Tuesday. Stewart scored 18 points and grabbed a game-high 14 rebounds vs. the Sun last week. The Liberty won, and covered, the first game Stewart sat, 81-67, Saturday at the Chicago Sky.
That win over Chicago in Stewart's first missed game this year is misleading. The Sky are seventh out of 12 WNBA teams in Basketball Reference's "SRS" (Simple Rating System), which combines scoring margin with strength of schedule. Otherwise, the Liberty lost their four previous games without Stewart, seven of the last eight from 2021-23.
Connecticut Sun at New York Liberty Odds (Caesars)
- Moneyline: CONNECTICUT (+140) | New York (-165)
- Spread: SUN +3.5 (-110) | Liberty -3.5 (-110)
- Total — 154 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
As I learned in the NBA this year, it's hard to predict if players who are "questionable" with an injury will suit up. However, in this case, I'm predicting New York will give Stewart the night off. The WNBA's month-long All-Star and Olympic breaks begin Thursday, so it makes sense that the Liberty wouldn't "rush her back".
With that in mind, Stewart's absence makes it easier to defend New York. She has the second-highest usage rate on the Liberty behind All-Star SG Sabrina Ionescu and has the lowest 3-point attempt rate among New York's starters. I.e. Connecticut can extend its perimeter defense since it won't be afraid of Stewart bullying them in the paint (if she misses Tuesday).
New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart posts up Sun forward DeWanna Bonner during the 2024 WNBA Commissioner's Cup at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. (Chris Marion/NBAE via Getty Images)
The Liberty is a far better shooting team, but the Sun should win the other three factors. New York's effective field goal rate, which combined 2- and 3-point shooting, is 4.7% higher than Connecticut's (52.8-48.1%). Meanwhile, the Sun has a +5.1 free-throw margin per game, +3.1 rebound-per-game margin, and +3.4 turnover-per-game margin.
Finally, I'm following the line movement because I doubt casual bettors are shifting the odds for a regular-season WNBA game. According to Pregame.com, New York has gone from -5.5 favorites down to the current number. It stinks getting here late, but I'm confident Connecticut is the sharp side in this game.
BET the Sun +3.5 (-110) at Caesars and ‘sprinkle’ on Connecticut's +140 moneyline
- For what it's worth, I'm 5-2 in WNBA bets this year, including correctly predicting Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever to upset the Minnesota Lynx Sunday.
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