Nick Chubb Returns In NFL Week 7: Cleveland Browns By 50 Over Cincinnati Bengals

Do yourself a favor and read Browns RB Nick Chubb's article in The Player's Tribune: "Cleveland Got My Back." My colleague and chief advisor for women's stuff, Amber Snyder, discussed it Wednesday. 

Chubb wrote about how much the Browns organization and Cleveland meant to him professionally and personally. It was beautiful and inspiring, so much so that I'm betting rent plus some on the Browns vs. the Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Week 7.

Cincinnati opened as -4.5 road favorites over Cleveland, which steamed up to -5/-5.5 instantly. As of Wednesday, the Bengals are -6/-6.5 favorites, which leads me to my first pro-Cleveland factor: Bengals-Browns is mispriced, and I can prove it.

Bet Browns +6.5 (-110) and ‘sprinkle’ on Cleveland's +240 moneyline at BetMGM 

Cincy closed as -4.5 at the New York Giants on Sunday Night Football in Week 6. Cleveland is much better than last week’s NYG team, who should've covered despite missing its biggest game-breaker, rookie WR Malik Nabers.

The Bengals beat the Giants 17-7 by scoring a meaningless touchdown with less than two minutes remaining to pull a bullsh*t frontdoor cover out of their a**.  (Yes, I’m still fuming over that result since I had New York +3.5 in my Weekend Betting Guide and Circa Million VI NFL handicapping contest entry for Week 6). 

Anyway, the Browns traded WR Amari Cooper to the Buffalo Bills for draft capital Tuesday. Cincinnati went from -5.5 favorites to -6.5 after the trade and Cooper isn’t worth 1.0 points to the spread. I was ready for the Browns at +4.5 when this line opened. If anything, as a Cleveland backer, I’d rather have the extra point. 

Look, I like Cooper, and he’s on my fantasy team, so I’m happy about the trade. Cooper on the Bills with Josh Allen throwing him passes makes sense, and he can be an asset for Buffalo. But, this trade doesn’t hurt the Browns much because Cooper wasn’t playing well for them. His nine drops are five more than the next closest wide receiver. 

Nick Chubb runs the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns Stadium in Ohio. (Jason Miller/Getty Images)

Furthermore, now that Chubb is back, Cleveland doesn’t need Cooper as much. Chubb is one of the few difference-making running backs in the NFL. The four-time Pro Bowler averages 5.3 yards per rush for his career and had four straight 1,000-yard seasons from 2019-22. Last year, Chubb ran for 106 yards on 18 carries in a 24-3 Week 1 win over the Bengals. 

Granted, the Browns have looked awful, but they are getting healthier. Cleveland Pro Bowl tackles Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin started for the first time last week. Cincinnati's offensive and defensive lines are the weakest part of this team, so the Browns should "win the line of scrimmage". 

RELATED: Myles Garrett - From A Standstill - Hurdles Eagles Long-Snapper For FG Block

Speaking of which, Cleveland's defense owns Joe Burrow. He is 1-5 all-time vs. the Browns with a 63.6% completion rate and 86.4 QB Rating. For context, Burrow has a 68.3% completion rate and 99.9 QB Rating for his career. Cleveland All-Pro pass rusher, and 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Myles Garrett has sacked Burrow nine times. 

Cleveland Browns pass rusher Myles Garrett sacks Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow in NFL Week 1 last year. (Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK)

Also, the Browns still haven’t suffered their "season-ending" loss. I’m sure some of the guys in Cleveland’s locker room believe they can win out. Part of being a professional athlete is having supreme confidence in your abilities. Plus, the Browns have all their division games left and only have one fewer loss than Cincy, which everyone thinks can still sneak into the playoffs. 

Finally, no one wants anything to do with Cleveland and everyone is betting Cincinnati. According to Pregame.com, more than 85% of the action is on the Bengals as of Wednesday. After road favorites went 9-0 straight up and vs. the spread last week, the sportsbooks will have their revenge in Week 7. 

Prediction: Browns 23, Bengals 19 

• For the record, I'd bet a full unit on Cleveland +6.5 and put a one-third-unit on the Browns to win outright (+240). This will be one of my five picks for NFL Week 7 of the Circa Million VI.

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