NFL Week 9 Betting Picks From Analyst Who Is 8-2 Over Past Two Weeks
As I wrote in my introduction last week, I either have a really great week or a really terrible one. There's not much in between. Well, Week 8 was one of the good ones, as our five picks went 4-1, and I'm now 8-2 over the past two weeks.
In my good weeks (Weeks 3, 7 and 8), I went a combined 13-2. In my bad weeks (Weeks 1, 2, 5 and 6), I went a combined 5-15.
Once again, it's your job to figure out what kind of week this will be and make some money. Good luck!
Week 8 NFL Betting Picks (4-1)
Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins OVER 46.5 ✅
Cincinnati Bengals (-2) over Philadelphia Eagles ❌
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans UNDER 46 ✅
Buffalo Bills (-3) over Seattle Seahawks ✅
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) over New York Giants ✅
Well, I whiffed pretty badly on the Bengals, so whoops on that. But everything else went pretty smoothly, so there's not much to say. Sure, the Steelers benefited from some questionable calls from the referees, but I was due some good luck.
SEASON REPORT CARD (18-17, 51%)
SPREAD BETS (13-11, 54%)
OVER/UNDER BETS (5-6, 45%)
*You can track all my betting picks for the season here
Week 9 NFL Betting Picks
Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Thursday afternoon.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns UNDER 43
This is my weekly, "I just don't understand this line" game. I expected to see this total around 39 and was shocked to see it over 40 points. The Chargers haven't allowed a single team to score 21+ points this season. The Browns hadn't scored 20+ points until last week.
Jameis Winston gave the Browns offense a bump, but we see this a lot in the NFL. The backup QB comes in, the team rallies and plays great. Look no further than Andy Dalton and the Carolina Panthers.
But that fades. The Browns' offense still isn't great. Neither is the Chargers offense, quite frankly. Not to mention, both of these teams are gung-ho on "establishing the run." All of that lends itself to a low-scoring game.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons OVER 51.5
I've got this game as the highest-scoring contest in Week 1. Eventually, the Dallas defense will show up. But not this week.
Missing Micah Parsons has been a massive blow and against the Atlanta Falcons, the best way to stop their offense is to get Cousins moving around, because he doesn't do that very well.
But against a Cowboys front missing Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, it just can't get the pressure that it needs to get to slow down Atlanta. On the flip side, the Falcons' defense hasn't been very good this season, either.
Expect the Cowboys and Falcons offenses to battle in a high-scoring affair in Week 9.
(Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Last year, after the Cowboys bye week, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb started assaulting the league after being pretty average beforehand. Well, what do you know? Dallas had its bye in Week 7 and in Week 8, Lamb had 146 yards and two touchdowns.
Plus, the Cowboys have no running game right now, which means more passing, which means more possessions, which means more points.
Arizona Cardinals (-1) over Chicago Bears
I still believe oddsmakers are showing the Bears too much love. They didn't play particularly well last week and still almost won if not for a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary. That would have been at least the third victory this season where Caleb Williams played poorly, and they still managed a victory.
Of course, there's something to be said for winning games when the QB plays badly. Still, we have to stick to the process. The process says that the Cardinals – who have several good wins this season and all of their losses have come against good teams – are simply better than the Bears.
In this case, Arizona is at home against Chicago, and it's basically a pick'em game. Jonathan Gannon is a defensive-minded coach and I expect the Cardinals to give Caleb Williams some looks that will confuse the rookie and force some big mistakes.
Green Bay Packers (+3.5) over Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are very good, I'm not denying that. However, we haven't had a chance to see this team play outdoors much this season. They played one game outside, and it was at Arizona in Week 3. Detroit scored 20 points, their second-lowest output of the season.
I know there are questions about Jordan Love's health baked into this line, but I think he's going to play. Even if he doesn't, the Packers have shown an ability to keep Malik Willis out of trouble and keep games close.
The Packers should hold their own against the Lions and could win outright. But take the points anyway.
(Rich Storry/Getty Images)
The Green Bay Packers are quietly a very good NFL team that has been overshadowed by being in the same division as the Lions and Vikings. Plus, their starting quarterback has been in and out of the lineup.
All of that added up, and I believe the market is slightly too high on Detroit and slightly too low on Green Bay. The Packers as home underdogs is a great spot for them in Week 9.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+8.5) over Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are giving the Bucs WAY too many points on Monday Night Football. While Kansas City is undefeated, they haven't exactly been dominant this season.
Only two of their seven wins have come by two scores, for example. While the Buccaneers are banged up, Tampa has been quite good this season. Three of their four wins have been by multiple scores, and they are 2-3 in one-score games.
Conversely, the Chiefs are 5-0 in one-score games. That suggests the Chiefs have been a little lucky, while the Bucs have been a little unlucky.
Luck turns in the NFL, it always does. While the Chiefs should win this game, they don't have a ton of motivation to do so. They're clearly on a path to the playoffs and Super Bowls are the only thing that matters to this team.
Tampa, though, desperately needs a big win coming off back-to-back losses. I believe the Bucs will play very hungry in this one and keep it close enough to cover 8.5.