NFL Week 8 Betting Picks From Analyst Who Either Wins Big Or Loses Everything

The headline for this article is no joke. I either crush it or get crushed. There is no in-between. Your job is to figure out if I'm going to have a great week or a terrible one and bet accordingly. 

In Weeks 3 and 7, I went a combined 9-1. In Weeks 1, 2, 5 and 6, I went a combined 5-15. I didn't make picks in Week 4 because I was on vacation. So, yeah.

Week 7 NFL Betting Picks (4-1)

Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) over New England Patriots ✅

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns OVER 41.5 ❌

Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) over San Francisco 49ers ✅

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) over New York Jets ✅

Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) over Los Angeles Chargers ✅

Well, this was one of the good weeks. Jacksonville cruised to victory in London, the Chiefs had no problem with the injury-riddled 49ers, the Steelers blasted the Jets on Sunday Night Football and the Cardinals gave us our only sweat but pulled off the Monday Night Football victory. 

The Browns and Bengals didn't come close to hitting the over, but part of that was because Deshaun Watson got hurt. Not that it would have mattered, but I'm not passing up an opportunity to make an excuse. 

SEASON REPORT CARD (14-16, 47%)

SPREAD BETS (11-10, 52%) 

OVER/UNDER BETS (3-6, 33%) 

*You can track all my betting picks for the season here

Week 8 NFL Betting Picks

Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Wednesday afternoon.

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins OVER 46.5

I don't think I'm breaking any news here when I say the Dolphins offense is a lot better with Tua Tagovailoa than without him. Part of that is because Miami decided not to upgrade at backup quarterback in the off-season, a truly puzzling decision. 

But I expect Tagovailoa to play this week in a game that Miami desperately needs. That means all the plays that McDaniels wanted to run but couldn't without a competent QB are in play against the Cardinals. 

That should mean many more explosive plays from the Dolphins' offense than we've seen over the past four weeks. Plus, Arizona's defense has given up 34+ points three times already this season and Miami could get there. 

The return of Tua Tagovailoa should be a huge boost to the Dolphins offense, which should be able to score points against the Arizona Cardinals.

(Perry Knotts/Getty Images)

The Dolphins defense has played OK, but they've also played some really terrible quarterbacks. In the two games against decent offenses (Buffalo and Seattle), they gave up 31 points and 24 points, respectively. 

Miami is comfortable playing in shootouts and this game has big-time shootout potential. I'll take the OVER, especially since it's under 50 in what could be the highest-scoring game of the Week 8 slate. 

Cincinnati Bengals (-2) over Philadelphia Eagles 

Everyone assumes the Eagles are an elite NFL team, but I'm not so sure. They were awful at the end of last season, as everyone knows, and they aren't playing that great to start this year. 

Did you know that since the start of December last year, the Eagles are 3-10 against-the-spread (including the playoff beatdown against Tampa Bay)? Well, they are. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is 4-2 ATS over the past six weeks since their shocking Week 1 loss against the Patriots. 

The AFC is just better than the NFC and even though the Eagles are one of the better teams in their conference – and the Bengals are a few rungs down the AFC ladder right now – that doesn't mean that Cincinnati isn't just better. 

There's an argument to be made that if the Bengals were in the NFC, they might be the best team in the conference. The spread here indicates that these two teams are about equal, and I just don't think that's the case. 

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans UNDER 46

I promised myself I was going to stay away from totals this week because, quite frankly, I haven't been great with them so far this year. 

But, to be honest, the totals look more tantalizing in Week 8 than many of the spreads. So, I'm going with another one here. I think this number is inflated because these teams combined for 56 points in Week 1. 

But the Texans' offense has quietly been pretty bad, at least relative to preseason expectations, so far this year. Their defense, on the other hand, has actually been very good. 

The Colts are middle-of-the-pack in both offensive and defensive metrics, but in this divisional game, I expect a slower pace than we saw in Week 1. 

Five of Houston's past six games have gone UNDER and Indianapolis has had four of its past six games go UNDER. 

Buffalo Bills (-3) over Seattle Seahawks 

This is a puzzling spread. The Bills are one of the NFL's best teams, and they just added Amari Cooper to help their biggest weakness. The Seahawks, on the other hand, aren't even one of the top teams in the weak NFC. How is this spread only three points? 

Normally, that would make me want to back Seattle because the line is fishy. But I genuinely think the market is just overrating the Seahawks and underrating the Bills.

All of Buffalo's losses this season have come against strong AFC opponents, and they've cruised past weaker competition. I see Seattle much more in the latter category than the former. The Bills are 4-0 ATS against weaker teams this year, and that's where I have Seattle. 

The Buffalo Bills are a lot better than the Philadelphia Eagles, so I'm backing Josh Allen with one of my Week 8 NFL betting picks.

(Bryan Bennett/Getty Images)

The Seahawks, conversely, got rolled by both the Lions and the 49ers and that's the class that the Bills are in – probably even better than San Francisco right now. Seattle has just two wins ATS so far this season, and they came against the Tua-less Dolphins and Atlanta last week. 

Their record is also a little bit misleading. While Seattle is 4-3 this year, three of their four wins came by one score – and all against bad teams (Miami, New England and Denver). Their three losses, though, were all by more than one score, including against the New York Giants. This line should be higher, so give me Buffalo. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) over New York Giants 

If the Pittsburgh Steelers do one thing really well, it's beat up on bad teams. The Giants are a bad team. So, I'm going to swallow the 6.5 points on Monday Night Football. 

The analysis here is pretty straightforward: Mike Tomlin and Russell Wilson at home on Monday Night Football against Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones. Yeah, I like my chances. 

Additionally, the Steelers demolished the Raiders and Jets in the previous two weeks, two teams that profile similarly to the Giants. Pittsburgh also beat Atlanta, Denver and the Los Angeles Chargers all by at least a touchdown. 

Their losses came against Indianapolis and Dallas, but I believe both teams are better than the Giants. 

New York got rolled by the Eagles, Bengals and Vikings, three teams that are fairly similar to Pittsburgh. And all of those losses came at home. This is on the road. On Monday Night Football. 

Daniel Jones is 0-7 in his career on Monday Night Football and 1-14 in primetime games. He hasn't thrown a touchdown pass in a primetime game in his past seven starts. 

Yeah, give me Wilson and Tomlin over THAT.