NFL Week 7 Betting Picks To Fade From Extremely Cold Analyst
I really hope you listened to me last week. And, by "listened to me," I mean I hope that you listened to the part where I said to bet against all of my NFL Week 6 picks. If you did that, congratulations! You went 4-1 and made money.
If you didn't, well, then you're just as dumb as me and that's not my fault.
Week 6 NFL Betting Picks (1-4)
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) over Chicago Bears ❌
Dallas Cowboys (+3) over Detroit Lions ❌
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos UNDER 35.5 ❌
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants UNDER 48 ✅
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets UNDER 41 ❌
I usually recap my picks here, but I'm tired and don't feel like it. I suck at picking NFL games. That's really all you need to know.
SEASON REPORT CARD (10-15, 40%)
*You can track all my betting picks for the season here
Week 7 NFL Betting Picks
Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Thursday afternoon.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5) over New England Patriots
Yep, I'm going right back to the well with Jacksonville, despite the no-show last week in London.
I made a mistake in my analysis because the Jaguars were delayed getting to England because of the hurricane, which meant the Bears actually had more time to prepare. This week, though, the Jags stayed across the pond and that turns the advantage back in their favor.
I'm taking the Jaguars with one of my NFL Week 7 betting picks because they have to play better in London this week, right? … Right?
(Peter van den Berg/Imagn Images)
Drake Maye looked solid in his first NFL start, but he's still young and very raw. Plus, there just isn't a lot of talent around him. Jacksonville should win this game by multiple scores.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns OVER 41.5
The Cincinnati Bengals defense is the perfect "cure for what ails ya" as it relates to the terrible Cleveland Browns offense.
They just traded Amari Cooper, so that makes their offense worse, right? Well, yes, it does, but probably won't have as large of an impact as you might think. Sure, the Browns want to run the ball with Nick Chubb back, but the Bengals know that, too.
So, I think the Browns will finally be able to use play-action to set up the downfield pass and even Deshaun Watson should be able to complete passes against the Cincinnati secondary.
On the other side, the Bengals had scored 30+ points in three straight games before a poor showing against the New York Giants. The Browns were lit up by both the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders and the Bengals have arguably more firepower than both teams.
Weather won't be an issue at all, as it's supposed to be a beautiful weekend up in the north. Taking lll of that into account, I like both teams to put up over 20 points and hit the over.
Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) over San Francisco 49ers
I'm actually shocked that the 49ers are favored here, even at home. Defenses have been able to really come after Brock Purdy, especially without Christian McCaffrey. People are starting to realize just how important CMC is to the San Francisco offense.
Without him, I expect Steve Spagnuolo to make life hell for Brock Purdy on Sunday afternoon in the Bay Area.
Plus, the Chiefs' offense still hasn't really caught its stride so far this year, but I think they have a big game this week. The usually stout 49ers defense has allowed at least 23 points in four of the last five weeks and the only team that didn't score that many was the anemic Patriots offense.
Look for the Chiefs offense to get on track on Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers.
(Denny Medley/Imagn Images)
With the total in this game set at 47, 24 points might be enough to win it for Kansas City. But, I see it more like 27-23 Chiefs.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) over New York Jets
There's so much hype around the Jets after acquiring Aaron Rodgers and there's a lot of negative energy around the Steelers because of the "controversial" decision by Mike Tomlin to replace Justin Fields with Russell Wilson.
But that makes it the perfect time to back Pittsburgh over New York. Tomlin is a far better coach than Jeff Ulbrich and I expect him to torment the interim head coach for the Jets with a strong gameplan.
Tomlin always seems to find ways to win, and the team has managed to go 4-2 with Fields under center. The fact that Tomlin isn't satisfied with that and is going to Wilson tells you everything you need to know.
Expect Mike Tomlin to outcoach Jeff Ulbrich and the Steelers to beat the Jets on Sunday Night Football.
(Barry Reeger/Imagn Images)
Wilson is better than Fields. Period. It's a testament to Mike Tomllin that they won four games with Fields, but they should be even better on offense – at least more consistent – with someone throwing the football who can actually, you know, like throw the football.
Give me Tomlin as a home underdog in primetime every, single time.
Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) over Los Angeles Chargers
The Cardinals are a bit of an enigma, but I'm still not buying the Chargers. Their wins have come against Las Vegas, Carolina and Denver. Three of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Cardinals have played one of the toughest schedules in the league thus far and all of their losses are to Top 10 NFL teams: Buffalo, Detroit, Washington and Green Bay.
Arizona demolished the Los Angeles Rams, who have some decent wins this season, and they beat the San Francisco 49ers, another good team. To have them as underdogs at home just doesn't feel right.
I'll take the points in a game where I think the wrong team is favored.
That's it for me this week. Good luck everyone with your Week 6 NFL betting picks!