NFL Week 6 Betting Picks To Fade From Extremely Cold Analyst
Well, that was short-lived! I entered Week 3 this season on the coldest NFL betting streak of my life before busting out with a perfect 5-0 week.
But instead of breaking out of the slump for good, I dived right back into a pile of misery in Week 5.
That's OK, though! I'm happy to provide OutKick readers with winners … even if they come at my own expense, both monetarily and with my reputation.
Week 5 NFL Betting Picks (1-3)
Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) over Baltimore Ravens ❌
Buffalo Bills (-1) over Houston Texans ❌
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) over Indianapolis Colts ✅
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) over Denver Broncos ❌
The only bet we missed badly was the Raiders and, to be fair to me, I made the pick prior to the news that Davante Adams wouldn't play due to a hamstring injury. Not that it would have made a huge difference, but still.
The Bengals and Bills both losing in heartbreaking fashion was a difficult pill to swallow. Granted, Buffalo didn't really deserve to win, but Cincinnati should have. At least we were on the right side of the nail-biter between Indianapolis and Jacksonville.
SEASON REPORT CARD (9-11, 45%)
*You can track all my betting picks for the season here
Week 6 NFL Betting Picks
Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Thursday afternoon.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) over Chicago Bears
If any team knows how to prep for a game in England, it's the Jacksonville Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence is 3-1 in London and Caleb Williams is a rookie making his first start over there. I think that going to be a fairly big advantage.
Plus, this is the first of two games in Europe for Jacksonville and I expect them to be far more prepared for the field conditions and everything that goes along with competing outside the United States.
I'm backing Trevor Lawrence, Doug Pederson and the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Chicago Bears in London in Week 6.
(Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union via Imagn Images)
In addition, the Bears are a bit of a fraudulent 3-2 with some lucky wins where the team bailed out its rookie QB. Not to mention, both of the team's losses have come against the AFC South, including against the Colts who the Jaguars just defeated.
I don't think Jacksonville is very good, but I think Lawrence will outplay Williams and I think Doug Pederson will out-coach Matt Eberflus. Those two elements are enough to put me on the Jags, even without including all of the London extras.
Dallas Cowboys (+3) over Detroit Lions
There was a time when betting on the Cowboys meant you had to pay the "Dallas Public Tax," which meant that the betting public was so into the Cowboys that books had to inflate the lines.
That time is long gone. So much so, in fact, that somehow the Detroit Lions are seeing more tickets despite being road favorites in Dallas. That is a WILD swing.
It's also a swing that you should not buy into. We've reached the stage in our alternate universe where Dallas is somehow underrated and the Detroit Lions are actually overrated.
Can you imagine someone telling you that 10 years ago? Well, that's where we are.
Jared Goff is quietly playing some mediocre football and no one seems to notice because the Lions have a strong roster top-to-bottom. But Dak Prescott has outplayed him this year and not by a small margin.
I just don't think the Lions are THAT much better than the Cowboys, especially not enough to be giving a field goal on the road. Take the points.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos UNDER 35.5
This is one of the lowest totals you'll see for an NFL game that has no weather implications and for good reason. Both the Broncos and Chargers have Top 5 defenses and Bottom 8 offenses.
Plus, both teams are hell-bent on trying to run the football.
Denver wants to run to try and protect its rookie quarterback Bo Nix, who just isn't very good, and Los Angeles wants to run because that's just how head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman like to play offense.
Even dating back to their days with the San Francisco 49ers, head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have always been proponents of running the football. A lot.
(Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports)
The Chargers have played four games this season and the highest combined total they've seen was 32 – back in Week 1 against the Raiders.
Denver scored 34 points last week, but that was boosted by a pick-6 and a second interception that gave them a short field. None of their touchdown drives were longer than 58 yards.
The total is low for a reason – don't overthink it.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants UNDER 48
The Cincinnati defense has played so badly this year, but they have to be able to contain Daniel Jones and the Giants, right? … RIGHT?!
Well, that's what I am betting on. This is a huge game for Cincinnati, so I think they'll show up and play hard, particularly on defense.
The Giants defense isn't great, but they did hold the Washington Commanders, who have had one of the league's most explosive offenses, to 21 points. In fact, since giving up 28 to the Vikings in Week 1, New York hasn't allowed any team to score more than 21.
The Bengals have played in two shootouts in the past three weeks, but I don't think they want to keep having that happen. They want to protect Joe Burrow and I expect them to lean heavily on a rushing attack led by Chase Brown, who has played very well.
I see a lower-scoring slugfest by two desperate teams, so I'll go with the under here.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets UNDER 41
Speaking of lower-scoring slugfests, do people think that the Jets sacking Robert Saleh and dumping Nathaniel Hackett as play caller is suddenly going to awaken a sleeping offense? Because I sure don't.
The last FIVE teams these teams have met, the game went UNDER the total. These two teams haven't combined for 40+ points since 2021, and I'm not sure why that would change this week.
I'm not buying that Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets are suddenly going to solve all of their offensive problems in one week.
(Shaun Brooks/Imagn Images)
I have some concerns about Josh Allen's health, and there's reason to believe that the Bills will try to protect him more this week. Same goes for the Jets, quite frankly.
Buffalo has scored 30 points combined over the past two weeks and the Jets defense is better than both of their previous opponents. The Jets haven't scored more than 24 points in any game this season and I don't see that changing here.
This should be a closely-contested game between two division rivals, and I don't expect offensive fireworks.
That's it for me this week. Good luck everyone with your Week 6 NFL betting picks!