NFL Week 5 Betting Picks From Analyst Coming Off 5-0 Week
The headline is slightly misleading because I didn't go 5-0 in Week 4. I went 5-0 in Week 3 and didn't make public picks last week. That's because I was on my annual week-long golf trip with my buddies and didn't have the time to put my usual research into making my NFL picks.
But I am back and ready to build off an undefeated week! Hopefully, that means my epic cold streak has come to an end, and it's time to start making money.
I'll quickly recap Week 3 and then move on to this week's selections.
Week 3 NFL Betting Picks (5-0)
New York Jets -6 over New England Patriots ✅
Indianapolis Colts (-1) over Chicago Bears ✅
Philadelphia Eagles (+3) over New Orleans Saints ✅
Carolina Panthers (+5.5) over Las Vegas Raiders ✅
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills OVER 45.5 points ✅
There's not a lot to say. Most of these picks cashed easily and it was a great week. Let's keep it going…
SEASON REPORT CARD (8-8, 50%)
*You can track all my betting picks for the season here
Week 5 NFL Betting Picks
Lines are the best available from oddschecker.com as of Thursday afternoon.
Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) over Baltimore Ravens
The Bengals are simply better than their 1-3 record implies and hype is building around Baltimore after they drubbed Buffalo on Sunday Night Football.
That's the perfect time to fade the perception that the Ravens are better than the Bengals because I don't think that they are.
Plus, we're getting points at home with Cincinnati, who are starting to get back to full strength now that Tee Higgins is back in the fold. Ja'Marr Chase is still doing Ja'Marr Chase things, so I feel good about the Bengals offense.
I expect a big performance from Tee Higgins and the Cincinnati Bengals offense against the Ravens, so I'm backing them with one of my Week 5 NFL betting picks.
(Jim Dedmon/Imagn Images)
The defense is a bit of a concern, but Lou Anarumo is one of the best coordinators in the NFL, and he's very familiar with Lamar Jackson. I expect a solid game plan that keeps Jackson in check and a game that comes down to the wire.
I lean towards the UNDER here, as well, but not enough to make it an official pick.
Buffalo Bills (-1) over Houston Texans
Yeah, I'm basically throwing out Baltimore destroying Buffalo, if you can't tell. But I like that perception shifted, and we're going to take advantage of that by also backing the Bills in a bounce-back spot.
The Houston Texans are overrated and should be bigger underdogs against a much better team, even at home. Buffalo is one of the best teams in the NFL and Josh Allen, at this point, is a better quarterback than CJ Stroud.
Houston is 3-1 but doesn't have a single impressive victory. They've beaten Indianapolis, Chicago and Jacksonville and all of them were one-score games.
While Buffalo has also feasted on inferior opponents, they beat Miami and Jacksonville by 58 combined points prior to the Ravens debacle.
This is a statement game for the Bills and I expect them to cover easily.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) over Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville has looked so bad, and it can't possibly get any worse. Still, I'm not buying the Colts and this line is fishy.
Indianapolis is coming off back-to-back wins and Jacksonville is winless. Yet, oddsmakers are saying these teams are basically even on a neutral field.
I think casual bettors are going to hammer the Colts as the "better" team getting points on the road.
Trevor Lawrence is due for a big game, so I'm backing the Jaguars with one of my Week 5 NFL betting picks.
(Gregory Fisher/Imagn Images)
But they aren't better than Jacksonville, and it's hard to trust that Anthony Richardson can make it through the entire game.
While Trevor Lawrence doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, he's capable of putting up some stellar performances. This is a perfect spot, at home, for a breakout game and that's why I expect. I'll swallow the 2.5 points here, but I probably wouldn't bet this at Jacksonville -3.
Las Vegas Raiders (+3) over Denver Broncos
This is a public-fade special. The Raiders have all kinds of drama going on with Davante Adams, which should suck people into betting an overrated Broncos team at home.
But don't be fooled – Denver stinks. Bo Nix stinks. Sean Payton stinks. The defense is legitimate. However, I'm happily taking three points against a team that's unable to move the football on offense at all.
The drama surrounding the Las Vegas Raiders and Davante Adams makes them a value play on the NFL Week 5 betting slate.
(Reggie Hildred/Imagn Images)
Plus, Antonio Pierce thrives in these situations where his back is against the wall, which is how he got the team to play so well after he took over as interim head coach.
Davante Adams is basically auditioning for his next team, so I can envision a scenario where he completely takes over the Raiders offense and puts up some big numbers.
The Raiders are a value play in Week 5, so I'm taking the points.
That's it for me this week. Good luck everyone with your Week 5 NFL betting picks!